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Qasem Soleimani: The 21st Century's Franz Ferdinand
January 7th 2020
By Olde Delaware
For anyone who hasn't been in Eurochat over the last week, or anyone who just isn't up on world news may have missed the announcement by the United States that it had killed Qasem Soleimani. But just who is Qasem Soleimani? What does his death mean for the people of Iran and what kind of ramifications can we honestly expect in an extremely volatile region like the Middle East? In order to keep this article from reading like a biography, I have cut it down to just the known facts.
Who is Gen. Qasem Soleimani?
The late General Qasem Solemani was a Major General and since 1998 the Commander of the Iranian Quds Forces. For comparison, the Quds forces are similar in size and operational activities as the United States Army Rangers or U.S. Marines. Solemani joined the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in 1979 and by the time of the Iraq-Iran war had command of a Company of soldiers. After successful counterattacks, led by Solemani recaptured Iranian land which was occupied by Iraq, Soleimani was given command of the 41st Tharallah Division by 1985.
Soleimani was promoted to the rank of Major General by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in 2011. By that time, the CIA had labeled him as "the single most powerful operative in the Middle East today"
As a Diplomat
Following the September 11 attacks in 2001, senior U.S. State Department official Ryan Crocker flew to Geneva to meet with Iranian diplomats who were under the direction of Soleimani with the purpose of collaborating to destroy the Taliban. This collaboration was instrumental in defining the targets of bombing operations in Afghanistan and in capturing key Al-Qaeda operatives, but abruptly ended in January 2002, when President George W. Bush named Iran as part of the "Axis of evil" in his State of the Union address. Soleimani was no stranger to the Taliban, as during the Iraq-Iran War Soleimani's Division was stationed close to the Afghanistani - Iranian border and Soleimani himself was instrumental in cutting down on drug trafficking from Afghanistan into Iran.
Soleimani strengthened the relationship between Quds Force and Hezbollah upon his appointment, and supported the latter by sending in operatives to retake southern Lebanon. In an interview aired in October 2019, he said he was in Lebanon during the 2006 Israel–Hezbollah War to oversee the conflict. In the later half of 2012, Soleimani assumed personal control of the Iranian intervention in the Syrian Civil War, when the Iranians became deeply concerned about the Assad government's lack of ability to fight the opposition, and the fallout to the Islamic Republic if the Syrian government fell. He reportedly coordinated the war from a base in Damascus at which a Lebanese Hezbollah commander and an Iraqi Shiite militia coordinator were mobilized, in addition to Syrian and Iranian officers.
Soleimani played a key role in Iran's fight against ISIS in Iraq. He was described as the "linchpin" bringing together Kurdish and Shia forces to fight ISIS, overseeing joint operations conducted by the two groups
A senior Iraqi official told the BBC that when the city of Mosul fell, the rapid reaction of Iran, rather than American bombing, was what prevented a more widespread collapse. Soleimani also seems to have been instrumental in planning the operation to relieve Amirli in Saladin Governorate, where ISIL had laid siege to an important city. In fact the Quds force operatives under Soleimani's command seem to have been deeply involved with not only the Iraqi army and Shi'ite militias but also the Kurdish in the Battle of Amirli, not only providing liaisons for intelligence-sharing but also the supply of arms and munitions in addition to "providing expertise".
As a Terrorist?
General Soleimani was sanctioned by the United Nations as early as 2007 for contributing to Iran's Proxy Wars. The resolution, United Nations Security Council Resolution 1747 passed unanimously. In 2011, the Swiss Government formally sanctioned Soleimani after the European Union announced it intended to do the same, doing so in 2012. In 2012, the Government of Canada formally labeled the Quds Force and General Soleimani a terrorist organization. In 2018, The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain sanctioned Solemani and the Quds Force as a terrorist organization. The United States formally labeled General Soleimani a terrorist by 2007. The "Designation of Iranian Entities and Individuals for Proliferation Activities and Support for Terrorism" forbids U.S. citizens from doing business with him. The United States further designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, including the Quds Force, a foreign military, as a foreign terrorist organization in 2019.
What does his death mean to the people of Iran?
The media has compared the death of Soleimani to the killing of a U.S. General or a Cabinet Member, this isn't too far off. Soleimani was beloved by the people of Iran and frankly labeled the second most powerful person in the country. His burial, which at the time of this article is happening now has seen people chanting Death of America. Not uncommon in Iran but on the scope of 2 to 3 million people chanting it the day before at his funeral in a country which has seen mass protests as of late is not a good sign. The Death of General Solemani is going to have a "rally around the flag" moment for Iran where the entire country is going to come together to demand action. Iran has been known to ignore the will of its people openly on many issues but this one it cannot afford to do so and a failure to act may see a collapse of the Government.
Iran's Options for Retaliation
I've been asked by at least two people do I think Iran will retaliate.
Yes, I do.
As expected, the propaganda war has already heated up. A lot of fake claims coming from Iran's State Media and Telegram such as attacks on major US Bases which was proven to be false among others. So what options does Iran have to retaliate, I have come up with three.
Option 1: Do Nothing
That's right, do nothing. Let the U.S. shoot themselves in the foot. This plan, if it is the plan got off on the right foot on January 6th when the "Seely Letter" was leaked to the media. The letter, authored by U.S. Brig. Gen. William Seely III detailed the announcement of a U.S. withdraw from Iraq hours after the Iraqi Parliament symbolically requested they do so. After a denial by Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and claims that the letter was 'faked', Reuters and other media outlets were able to get confirmation that it was indeed genuine. The U.S. Military has since come out and said the letter was a draft that should not have been released. Drafts of this type aren't uncommon, their like concession speeches after elections. But, it still an extremely embarrassing moment for the military in an extremely tense time.
At the time of this article's publication, there's been no formal announcement or declaration from the Iraqi Government that the United States withdraw troops. However, the United States is preparing sanctions against Iraq at this hour, which may force their hand. Option 1 is attractive to me because Iran may get its retaliation without doing a thing. But I don't believe it will be enough to satiate the Iranian people.
Option 2: Limited Strike
Iran announced as recently as yesterday their problem is with the United States Government, not its people. While that doesn't alleviate any of the concerns of possible terror attacks on American soil, it does leave open the possibility of retaliation against the U.S. Military or Government abroad. Embassies have been an attractive target since the 1998 bombings of U.S. Embassies in Africa. U.S. Military Bases and vessels have as well like the 2001 bombing of the USS Cole. The U.S. Fifth Fleet is located in Bahrain and there are substantial US bases in the region. Any one can easily be hit by Iranian missiles which were placed on high alert yesterday evening.
In my opinion, Iran will go with this option and hit one or more U.S. Military facilities and/or one or two Embassies with militia groups that they are friendly with in countries that are not expecting it. Right now, according to sources the belief is that the retaliation may come within the next 24-36 hours. But realistically it may come at any time before or after that count. What happens after that, if anything, is anyone's guess.
Option 3: Full Strike
The whole kit-n-caboodle. Iran fires its missiles at Iraq, at Israel at U.S. Ships in the Gulf, in the Med and its off to the races. This I don't think will happen, I don't think anyone honestly thinks this will happen unless your name rhymes with Ron Dolden. They would be wiped off the planet. But at least we would get an updated soundtrack
