Presidential Election Liveblog - EBC October 2024

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Hello Europeians!

Welcome to the October 2024 Presidential Election Liveblog, hosted by the Europeian Broadcasting Corporation for your infotainment!

The polls have opened less than half an hour ago, and the first dozen of votes have already come in! The race is a three-way between upc/gk, ellenburg/cordova, and finally vor/andy. Several options to choose from!

The midterm satisfaction poll suggested a strong performance by upc/gk over the first half of the term, while preliminary polling showed that people were entertaining the idea of supporting a challenger, however the post-debate poll indicates that this will be a tight race between UPC and Vor, although Ellenburg is not far behind them.

Do the current standings reflect that projection? Or will another ticket make a stronger appearance? The previous poll had 33 respondents after all, but it did not ask questions about run-off scenarios, making it unclear what might happen in a highly likely second round.

To start off we will be inviting @Sincluda for comments

 

[Sincluda]

Thanks for having me, Sky.

We're not too far in it yet, with 24 votes in (which is probably close to a third of the total votes we'll see this round), but UPC is exceeding projections and taking a strong lead at 13 votes. This is over 50% of total votes, which would avoid a runoff that many were expecting. I don't think it's likely that will happen, but I think UPC's lead of 6 votes over Vor and 9 votes over Ellenburg will roughly hold when the round finishes. I think UPC's strong start has to be at least partially attributed to the flurry of endorsements his campaign received; from Minister of Culture Sarah, Minister of Foreign Affairs Istillian, Supreme Chancellor Lethen, Maowi, Minister of World Assembly Affairs SkyGreen, and Grand Admiral Sincluda. You'd imagine that such a large quantity of endorsements from such influential figures has to have at least some impact here, even when individual endorsements on their own don't seem to do too much.

 

[SkyGreen]

Thank you for the comment, yeah while a third of votes is already a substantial chunk, given our timezone difference we can't rely on a equal distribution this early on.
Indeed there have been several endorsements which may make an impact.
I'd like to call on my second esteemed guest @Ervald
What are your thoughts on the current numbers, and what do you think the impact of the endorsements will be, if any?

 

[Ervald]

Thank you for the comment, yeah while a third of votes is already a substantial chunk, given our timezone difference we can't rely on a equal distribution this early on.
Indeed there have been several endorsements which may make an impact.
I'd like to call on my second esteemed guest @Ervald
What are your thoughts on the current numbers, and what do you think the impact of the endorsements will be, if any?

I think we don't have enough votes coming in at the moment to make an assumption about the exact results. I think a run-off could happen but if it doesn't, it will be narrow. For endorsements, it is a bit tricky. UPC/GK had endorsements from folks who don't normally give out endorsements; those could make players go "wow, I should follow their endorsement" or they could go "wait, these people never give out endorsements, who care what they think?". Endorsements mainly impact undecided voters and it sounds like we had plenty of those so I think ultimately, the torpedo of endorsements UPC/GK had will have the election go in their favor.

 

[SkyGreen]

Thank you so much Ervald,

seems like the votes are slowly trickling in so I'd like to take the chance to invite @Istillian for a cheeky comment. So far UPC/GK are still above 50% - do you think this will change? There were a lot of big FA moves this term, do you think this plays a big role in the voter's minds?

 

[Istillian]

Thank you so much Ervald,

seems like the votes are slowly trickling in so I'd like to take the chance to invite @Istillian for a cheeky comment. So far UPC/GK are still above 50% - do you think this will change? There were a lot of big FA moves this term, do you think this plays a big role in the voter's minds?

Thanks for inviting me on to speak, Sky! The vote projections and polling that have been provided so far can only tell you a sample of the story, the real game-changer in my mind is going to be the GOTV efforts from the leading tickets here, and while at this point I think UPC/GK are in a solid lead, we have a lot of citizens still yet to vote - and those GOTV's will be the deciding factor in swaying this election.

In terms of FA, I was very pleasantly happy to see particularly Vor and UPC pushing on the topic in the debates this week - I do think this is something that plays a big role in the minds of voters. You want someone that you can trust to make FA negotiations, and in the past few terms we haven't really seen any major mishaps from UPC. Vor and Ellenburg come with a lot of experience though, and really pushed UPC in the debate on what he could be doing better. Given Vor and Ellenburg have a history in both military gameplay and in high level regional leadership roles, at the end of the day there is a level of security the voters may feel, despite a lot of the heavy discussion being on war efforts and our current alliances. It may be down to the more refined domestic affairs policies that voters will nit-pick over, as I would be surprised if anyone is especially unhappy with the UPC administrations actions.

 

[SkyGreen]

Thank you Istillian! Those are some pretty good points

I'm also honoured to invite two of the faces from the Europeian Mt. Rushmore @HEM and @Sopo
You two have witnessed a big part of Europeian history first hand, HEM being the reason we're all refreshing a forum thread on a friday evening.

There was a lot of talk about an "unprecedented" fourth term. Given your big experience, you must've seen a lot of precedents being broken and new ones set. What do you think about this one? It was a big topic in the debate as well, after all.
Feel free to add general comments about the election as well.

Also a transatlantic question from PhDre
"If UPC thinks he cannot get a first round win should he have left some in the tank to try and push ellenburg past vor?"

 

[Sopo]

Thank you for having me, Sky.

A president serving three consecutive terms is a rare phenomenon; we almost doubled that number this year. They are: nlhp, Anumia, Writinglegend (twice), JayDee, and UPC. The most compelling reason to serve multiple terms is because you have a project you want to see through to completion (or guarantee is on solid footing). With Anumia, it was the Great Architectural Project. With the last two presidents, it was arguably the war and FA endeavors, though UPC has been uniquely focused on tech as well. I honestly have no idea what continued to fuel Writinglegend.

It's clear that UPC feels he has unfinished business, more groundwork to lay, more to do - and that passion comes across. The slew of endorsements from his Cabinet past and present also serves to solidify the idea that things are going well, this guy has energy, and he's great to work with. His campaign has worked hard to combat any potential feeling that his leadership is stale or petering out.

UPC and GK have done pretty much everything in their power to show they're ready for a fourth term and that it's actually good for the region. The election results so far show that many people agree. I still expect us to go to a runoff, but I wouldn't be surprised if UPC pulls out a narrow first-round win.

I can't ever imagine wanting to serve four consecutive terms - I never even did 3, even when I led us into a war - but UPC clearly wants it. Vor and Andy have done a good job showing the chinks in the armor and the opportunities missed that they can make up for, but there are only small vulnerabilities in UPC's record that Vor has been able to hit at. Nonetheless, Vor and Andy feel like a safe alternative that will carry on the same mission as UPC and GK with some tweaks, so they should be an easy sell for folks who are adamantly against a fourth term for anyone. If they can push us to a runoff and win over Ellenburg/Cordova voters, we'll have a very tight election on our hands.

"If UPC thinks he cannot get a first round win should he have left some in the tank to try and push ellenburg past vor?"

This would be an interesting strategy but feels very risky - I don't think I'd feel comfortable attempting something like that.

 

[HEM]

Thank you Istillian! Those are some pretty good points

I'm also honoured to invite two of the faces from the Europeian Mt. Rushmore @HEM and @Sopo
You two have witnessed a big part of Europeian history first hand, HEM being the reason we're all refreshing a forum thread on a friday evening.

There was a lot of talk about an "unprecedented" fourth term. Given your big experience, you must've seen a lot of precedents being broken and new ones set. What do you think about this one? It was a big topic in the debate as well, after all.
Feel free to add general comments about the election as well.

Also a transatlantic question from PhDre
"If UPC thinks he cannot get a first round win should he have left some in the tank to try and push ellenburg past vor?"

Thanks for the invitation, SkyGreen! I am pretty confident my face should've been swapped with someone else's by now!!

I think the biggest risk, in my view, is that this series of longer Presidential stints will create the expectation of this being the norm or required by candidates. That might scare people off. Many of our new players only know of two different Presidents who both served for long periods. But we had plenty of impactful Presidents serve just one or two terms.

I don't really have greater constitutional concerns, but an interesting counterfactual is what would've happened if we did enact any kind of term limits — like ones discussed often in the past.