Low Approval Numbers Continue to Plague Incumbent President
Written by Monkey
and
@Calvin Coolidge , primary author of tier analysis
Written by Monkey
and
@Calvin Coolidge , primary author of tier analysis
Published 19 June 2021
Before we begin, I’d like to credit CSP for running past iterations of this poll. I tried to keep this edition as similar as possible to better track changes through time. This poll received 23 responses, which is a fair amount for polling, but a reminder again that this is far less than the 50+ votes that come in on actual election day.
Part 1: Demographic Info
How long have you been active in Europeia?
5+ years - 21.7% (-10.3)
2 to 5 years - 21.7% (+1.7)
1 to 2 years - 17.4% (+1.7)
6 months to 1 year - 13% (+1)
Less than 6 months - 26.1% (+10.1)
Which of these statements best describes you as a player?
I am substantially more interested in political gameplay than social gameplay - 21.7% (-14.3)
I am slightly more interested in political gameplay than social gameplay - 34.8% (+2.8)
My interest in political gameplay and social gameplay is equal - 30.4% (+14.4)
I am slightly more interested in social gameplay than political gameplay - 13% (+1)
I am substantially more interested in social gameplay than political gameplay - 0% (-4)
How satisfied are you with President Kazaman's executive and judicial appointments?
Very Satisfied - 17.4%
Somewhat Satisfied - 47.8 %
Unsure - 8.7%
Somewhat Dissatisfied - 21.7%
Very Dissatisfied - 4.3%
Is Europeia on the right track?
Yes - 52.2% (-27.8)
No - 30.4% (+22.4)
Unsure - 17.4% (+5.4)
What is most important to you when considering a candidate for President? Please rank your choices from 1 (most important) to 5 (least important).
Which policy area do you view to be most important when choosing a President? Please rank your choices from 1 (most important) to 5 (least important).
- I think that the term so far has been alright, definitely not without controversy, but I could have expected a lot more
- Kaz has disappointed so far as I had voted for him but the discord activity doesn't seem to be really transferred to government activity (except for notably Interior/Gameside and as always WAA).
- #1: When you bundle three ministries into one option, I think it's far more likely it will chosen as more important.
- #2: I think this is one of the first times in a while where I'm not seeing any obvious presidential contenders other than the incumbent/VP.
- Monkey please make it clearer what this comment should be about. I guess I'd say I'm generally looking forward to a competitive race, Kaz announced that he's considering running again so hopefully he'll show that he can fix the flaws he exhibited so far (poor communication comes to mind)
- Kazaman has had a few areas of his administration that he seems content to let fall to the wayside without addressing their failings at all. Radio and Comms chief among them.
- What ever comes of the race, I will not be voting for Kazaman.
“Encouragement to Run” Numbers:
These numbers played a role in the tier list analysis, which is further explained below. Select candidates have their numbers reported.
Calvin Coolidge - 73.9%
Monkey - 60.9%
UPC - 60.9%
Istillian - 56.5%
Darkslayer - 52.2%
HEM - 52.2%
Prim - 52.2%
SkyGreen - 52.2%
GrandfatherClock - 47.8%
Kazaman - 47.8%
Lime - 43.5%
Lloenflys - 43.5%
Peeps - 39.1%
Sopo - 39.1%
Kuramia - 30.4%
Monkey - 60.9%
UPC - 60.9%
Istillian - 56.5%
Darkslayer - 52.2%
HEM - 52.2%
Prim - 52.2%
SkyGreen - 52.2%
GrandfatherClock - 47.8%
Kazaman - 47.8%
Lime - 43.5%
Lloenflys - 43.5%
Peeps - 39.1%
Sopo - 39.1%
Kuramia - 30.4%
Brief Commentary:
The demographic shifts are fairly straightforward. Most notably, the amount of polltakers that are less than “6 months old” continues to grow, and the population of poll takers that lean towards preferring political gameplay also grows. However, there are large shifts in how the region feels regarding whether Europeia is on the right track, with only half of the responses agreeing with the statement, a significant dip from the last poll, under President Calvin Coolidge. Comments seem to mostly lean towards criticism of incumbent President Kazaman’s performance this term. The other two questions seem relatively constant, with maybe personal relationship and culture falling a tiny bit in terms of overall ranking.
Part 2: Tiering
Methodology:
For this article, we explored a new option to determine tier rankings. The overall score was an average of two numbers. The first component of the score was the 'encouragement to run numbers', shown above. The second component was the win/loss percentage against other members that were tiered. This involved a process in which all candidates were matched head to head and their win-loss ratios were averaged with the 'encouragement to run' numbers. Then, the bottom couple of candidates were eliminated, and the win/loss percentage numbers were recalculated with the new smaller pool of tiered candidates, and the process continued until a certain threshold. The results of this are listed below. Again, these results are very preliminary, and subject to change based on a variety of factors leading up and into the election. While they may influence one's decision to run, they shouldn't disqualify or discourage any candidates thinking about a potential run.
In our top tier we have the previous President and Vice President, in what may be a continuing trend of bad news for the current occupant of the Goldenblock. These two won nearly every match-up (Istillian is only candidate to not lose a single one, giving him a significant boost), and carry a large amount of interest from poll respondents regarding a possible run from either. If one should decide to run for President, it’s safe to call them the immediate frontrunner.
In the second tier we have some usual suspects: the Speaker of the Senate, the current Vice President, a Senator, a Justice, and a recent Minister. However, Lloen in particular saw a large boost to his numbers from the match-up data being added in, as his initial support was on the lower end. All would generate significant buzz should they choose to run for President, and should be watched closely as election time draws nearer.
One tier lower we have mostly old hands that have played less active roles in government than they once did, but still command the respect of the region alongside the energetic Minister of Interior, as a solid rising star. The old hands Sopo and Kuramia performed incredibly well when going head to head against other would be candidates, earning them their spot here, despite more tepid interest in encouraging them to run. While these potential candidates would be far from pushovers, they may be more suited to a bottom of the ticket role given their current levels of support.
Lastly, we have the dark horse tier. None of these potential candidates would enter the race as the clear favorite, but they cannot be counted out should they decide to make a run, garnering just enough support and match-up success to earn their spots on this list. Amongst the Ministers is the current President himself, likely unpleased to see himself this low in the rankings. His reelection plans are still up in the air, and it’s tough to say the incumbent isn’t well positioned to make a run, but it may take a lot more work than one might expect from someone in his position to walk away with a second term judging by his tepid support numbers, and inability to beat any of the top contenders in a hypothetical election. Also noteworthy in this tier are Sky and Lime, who have decent support encouraging them to run, but fail to win many hypothetical match-ups.
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