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HEM
Managing Editor
The Chief of State title has had a rich history in Europeia. In 2007, as the region was making a still unknowing transition from a Monarchy to a Republic, "Chief of State" was a title held concurrently by the elected President of the General Assembly -- the region's unicameral legislature that any citizen could join that held most regional authority. Hyanygo was the only citizen to be elected to this role, before then-Emperor HEM (me) declared temporary rule by decree and declared himself Chief of State and Assembly President alongside Rotalsia, a prominent citizen at the time.
When Europeians finally went to pen our first Republican Constitution in June 2007, it was the "President" title that stuck -- not Chief of State.
The title aptly re-emerged over a decade later when Europeia decided to retire the office of the Presidency, and split domestic and foreign powers between two different officials. It was decided the Senate, in a reflection of the ancient General Assembly, would elect the Chief. Now, as the Senate deliberates on a new round of executive reforms, this may be the final time they select a Chief of State -- or the last time one is selected at all.
As of print time, Sopo is the only candidate who has declared for the office alongside his running mate Maowi. According to ENN's poll of 30 respondents, Sopo begins the race in a strong position -- but with vulnerabilities. Widely popular with the Europeian every-man, a last minute push by the Senate to convert Chief of State selection to popular vote may turn out to be apocryphal, because many of Sopo's vulnerabilities resting with that body rather than the public at large. In 67% of head-to-head matchups we ran, Sopo overperformed with non-Senators over Senators.
Something worth highlighting with fireworks: Polls always come with threat of inaccuracy. There is no real way pollsters can scientifically weigh our results or ensure quality control in Europeia, meaning that anything from voluntary response bias to foul play can leave results with an indeterminate margin of error. However, this poll that asked respondents to identify themselves as Senators or Non-Senators requires an even higher level of disclaimer.
First, the obvious: nine respondents claimed to be Senators. Which, regardless of whether Sopo picked this option accidentally after or resigning or someone else did for ~reasons~ means there's already an element of error in the data. Furthermore, there is no way to verify that those who did select "Senator" are actually Senators either. ENN did verbally confirm with seven Senators that they did "take the poll", but that still isn't an ironclad guarantee they are represented in the "Senator" data. In the only other competitive Chief of State election, a few Senators confessed to taking polls and not identifying themselves as Senators, which means some "Senators" may just be no-good-do'ers.
That all being said, we (me) decided to include public vs. Senator comparisons anyway, because with 7 Senators verifying they took ENN's poll, that sample is likely to represent Senate thinking better than any other tools at our disposal right now -- and it's their thinking that will determine the election, not the direct will of the people. Going forward, it's likely that election coverage will be as much about whip counting than polling, so this should merely serve as a "starting point" for the conversation of where the Senate stands -- nothing more.
Overall Picture --
While in ENN's initial poll of the First Minister race we could sort prospective candidates into three buckets -- Frontrunners, Could-Happens, and Darkhorses -- here there are really only two buckets: viable, and not viable. Understandably, we are going to focus most of our column inches here talking about the candidates who are viable opponents to Sopo.
The only person who may be a candidate for straddling that line is Olde Delaware, but OD has stated that he isn't running and fares poorly in a head-to-head against Sopo. However, fascinatingly, the matchup between Olde Delaware and Sopo is a great visual picture of the challenge Sopo continually faces that we'll keep coming back to: underperformance among Senators.
Discerning Senate? --
These results fare particularly poorly for prospective candidates who are newer to the region, or have a better record of service on the domestic side of the executives. This might not be too surprising, on it's face, but we found something that was: One of the arguments of having the Senate elect the Chief of State rather than the general population was that Senators would be more discerning and more likely to pick someone with the needed expertise over a candidate who is just popular in the region.
But this doesn't always bear out. Sopo does indeed overperform with Senators against Hezekon and United Vietussia who have thinner records on the foreign affairs side. But DAX, Olde Delaware, and Peeps all actually do better with Senators than with Non-Senators against Sopo -- and they are also officials with more track record in Europeia on the domestic side (though DAX has experience outside of Europeia as well).
It's possible that it just may be too early, and the data too murky to draw any conclusions, but there's no immediate evidence to support the idea that Senators are applying higher scrutiny on foreign affairs prowess.
Sopo's Senate Problem --
There are seven matchups that ENN is considering as "viable" or "competitive" and deserve extra attention. That's not to say other head-to-heads shouldn't be discussed or couldn't be competitive -- platforms aren't even posted yet -- but the data says this is where we should spend our time presently.
Across nearly all the races -- with one big exception -- any major discrepancy (10%+) between what Senators and Non-Senators believe are universally harming Sopo's chances. There's only two head-to-heads where Sopo loses the popular vote, but there are four heads-to-head where he would lose in the Senate. Of the seven competitive races, five have Sopo weakener in the Senate than with Non-Senators, one has him stronger in the Senate, and one shows no real difference.
*The graphs below have three labels: Senators, Public, and Total. "Public" would be more accurately labeled "Non-Senators", since Senators are part of the public as well
Sopo vs. Bowzin [Sopo Stronger In Senate]:
Starting with the outlier, Sopo would be in a strong position to defeat Bowzin due to Sopo overperforming among Senators. But Bowzin's strength with non-Senators is significant, and likely due to strong social ties with citizens in EuroChat. Bowzin does have foreign policy chops, serving a term and some change as Grand Admiral as well as serving as a Head of Government abroad. Depending on platform quality and who Bowzin chose as a running mate, this could be an interesting race.
Sopo vs. DAX [Sopo Stronger With Non-Senators]:
On the other hand, this contest is a race because of Sopo's weakness with Senators. DAX about matches Bowzin with non-Senators, but then does much more strongly with the Senators themselves. DAX is also in a position where, but educating Europeians on more of her experience abroad with foreign militaries, she should could peel away public support from Sopo quite quickly, as many here may only see her as a "domestic" face.
Sopo vs. Darcness [No Difference]:
The one competitive race that shows very little difference between Senators and Non-Senators. Darcness would start out behind, but he clearly has enough of a base that he could mount an extremely competitive campaign. Also, when Darcness ran on JayDee's ticket for Chief of State last fall he and JayDee both abstained from the race -- but if he declined to be quite so altruistic this time, Darcness could have a significant leg up.
Sopo vs. Malashaan [Sopo Stronger With Non-Senators]:
Sopo would be leading in the popular vote in a competitive race against Malashaan with 53.33% of the vote, but in the Senate he starts behind with 44.44% of self-identified Senators behind him. Malashaan is well-known for his tremendous legislative accomplishments, so it makes sense that he's overperforming with Senators. Sopo leads decisively among Non-Senators, with 57.14% of those not seated in the Senatia backing him. If Malashaan runs, this would be highly competitive.
Sopo vs. Aexnidaral [Sopo Stronger With Non-Senators]:
In the starkest divide between Senators and Non-Senators of any of the competitive races, Sopo leads with Non-Senators with 57.14% of the vote. But Aexnidaral's strength within the Senate is so commanding (66.67%) that the total popular vote would be a 50/50 tie between the two candidates. Aexnidaral has indicated that he isn't running, but if he changed his mind, Sopo would have an extremely hard time defeating him in what would be a very polarizing election.
It's worth highlighting here that while the chasm between Senators and Non-Senators is daunting here, this actually wouldn't be a case of the popular vote being overturned. Senators would still vote in a direct election, and it would be a highly competitive race starting off at a 50/50 split. The difference here is Aexnidaral's nearly impenetrable lead within the Senate itself.
Sopo vs. Calvin Coolidge [Sopo Stronger With Non-Senators]:
While Sopo still beats Calvin among non-Senators -- the reoccuring trend of this poll -- here he loses the popular vote for the first time. In a popular election, Calvin would start out with a small 53.33% lead in what would surely be a nail-biter election.
Within the Senate, however, Calvin dominates with 66.67% of the vote -- though interestingly, far from the same 66.67% of Senators that Aexnidaral wins in his matchup.
Sopo vs. Pichtonia [Sopo Stronger With Non-Senators]:
Fortunately for Sopo, the only race where he would begin an underdog is probably the least likely race to transpire. Pichtonia clearly retains the respect and gratitude of the region, and if for some reason he had a change of heart and decided to run, he would be tough to beat.
Senate By-Election --
It's official: the Senator elected in the upcoming by-election will be seated in time to cast a vote for Chief of State -- and that's relevant to a strong majority of the region.
And who will people be looking to vote for? Well, in one of the least helpful and conclusive questions of the survey, people are clearly not sure if they want a fresh face or an old hand:
And finally, in a big of a Frakenstein's monster of a question, while a majority of respondents would not be upset by Senators doing their constitutional duty and electing their choice over the popular choice, but a not-insignificant segment of the electorate would be. Interestingly, that includes three self-identified Senators.
Takeaways --
There has been much discussion of letting newer members take their shot in higher office, but for this particular office at this particular time, it seems that it's the veterans who have the strongest shot at posing a challenge to Sopo. However, depending on running mates and platform, challenges from Bowzin or DAX also can't be underestimated.
Sopo has weaknesses, the question is: will he have to face any?
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