[OPINION] Is Europeia Headed For A Coronation?







Is Europeia Headed For A Coronation?

Media unanimous: VP Istillian to start presidential race with a serious head start. It must not scare challengers away.


Written by Klatonia





The current Executive term ends in 15 days and the campaign could start as early as this coming Sunday. As the Republic inches everyday closer to its next governmental reckoning, data and opinion have started to occupy the public space. This feeds speculation from both pundits and ordinary citizens.

This is par for the course. Many private media have a long tradition of political polling, and the best time to ask the people what they think is often before any official campaign is underway. At the same time, Europeia has had a very healthy radio presence for years, and some of the deserving few who get airtime have also picked up on recent poll results.

Everyone agrees on one thing: current Vice-President Istillian is the front-runner in the coming general election. The Europeian Citizen’s latest Smoking Poll places favourable intentions towards an Istillian presidency at eighty-eight percent (88%). Eighty-eight. That is fifty percent, plus another fifteen, plus another fifteen, plus another eight.

How close is the closest contender, according to the poll? Thirty-two (32) points behind, at fifty-six (56%) percent.

During the 11 April edition of the Power Player Draft, HEM, President Calvin Coolidge and Sopo could only concur that this is one impressive head-start that places Istillian at the very front of any pack.It would be foolish to believe the opposite.

Is the race over before it has even started? Are we heading for a coronation? After all, there’s nothing wrong with a coronation, as I have argued in the past.

Such questions open the door to so much speculation that any discussion runs the risk of becoming little more than gossip. In order to avoid getting bogged down in mindless “what ifs”, the only assumption we will make going forward is that VP Istillian will run for President.

The main advantage these polling numbers give VP Istillian is dissuasion. Generally speaking, huge head-starts are redoubtable assets because they preempt challenges.

Once the race starts, however, this electoral asset creates a huge vulnerability. The Europeian Citizen’s Common-Sense Politics (CSP) alluded to it in their analysis of the poll, saying that VP Istillian “[...] needs to be mindful that politics is an expectations game. It will be very difficult to exceed expectations from atop this perch.”

In other words, once the race starts, VP Istillian cannot do “better than expected.” The best their ticket can aim for is to do “as expected”... with their best campaign. Any other performance can be labelled as “worse than expected”, and this very possibility warps the voters’ perception.

Overwhelming polling numbers before an election can be a curse disguised as a blessing. They set the expectations CSP was alluding to very high. That level of expectation then becomes the minimal expectations for the candidate’s campaign.

What is the point of this analysis, you ask? The Smoking Poll’s pre-election results are just that: pre-election results. They are not the election. They are not the campaign. VP Istillian is a formidable servant of the public interest, but they do not have this election locked. Before the race begins, it is everyone’s game.

The movie The Terminator (1984) gives us this great line: “There is no fate but what we make for ourselves.” We need to discard the idea that we are bound by fate in the next election, and instead understand that any citizen who wants to run can control what they can make for themselves.

If you want to run, you should run. Don’t let the numbers spook you.

There will not be a coronation. There must be a campaign.
 
But will Calvin run?????
 
This seems like a incredibly presumptious article before even Istillian or Calvin have announced their intent. This whole article is just stating that Istillian polled well a couple weeks out from the election. There are literally a massive number of examples in Euro history where polling has been super duper wrong, much closer to the election. Polling this far out basically means nothing more than people would seriously consider you and even then when there are actual platforms the dynamics change completely.

If the point of this article was to encourage people to run, I don’t think this was a productive way to frame your closing message.
 
This seems like a incredibly presumptious article before even Istillian or Calvin have announced their intent. This whole article is just stating that Istillian polled well a couple weeks out from the election. There are literally a massive number of examples in Euro history where polling has been super duper wrong, much closer to the election. Polling this far out basically means nothing more than people would seriously consider you and even then when there are actual platforms the dynamics change completely.

If the point of this article was to encourage people to run, I don’t think this was a productive way to frame your closing message.
Not a bad take. Interesting.
 
I mean... this all sounds strongly in Isto's favour, but, this is all before the actually campaign begins.
before the platforms are posted
before the questions are asked
before the debates are held
etc.
I love Istillian, he's my sweet prince. Most people in this region, from what I gather atleast, hold a favourable opinion of our current VP.
And there comes the catch. Before the actual platforms are posted and the candidates opinions are given a tangible in form of stances, polling might just reflect how popular an individual is.

If you check out the smokin' poll, you will see that a noticeable amount of people (10/25) consider the personal relationship important. Furthermore, even CSP himself said (emphasis my own):
CSP said:
These numbers don't tell us who is most likely to win the presidential election
EDIT: interesting article tho, really made me thonk
 
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