October By-Election Exit Poll Results

Calvin Coolidge

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After one of the most surprising runoffs in recent memory, a reversal of fortune for the two candidates that advanced saw Olde Delaware ascend to the Senate after capturing only 21% of the vote in the first round, despite his opponent Bowzin nearly winning with 50%. The question on the region's mind is "how did this happen"? So, after conducting a poll in the Grand Hall for the last 24 hours, and garnering 25 respondents, here's my best attempt at answering that question.

Exit1.jpg
Exit2.jpg


These first two questions show our sample, with the first one pretty much matching up with the results of the first round of voting (with maybe a slight overrepresentation of cuddles votes), and our second question differing from the run-off's results by about 10% on each side in favor of Bowzin. What this tells us is that OD's voters are underrepresented in the group of people that respond to polls, as a pool of 25 respondents is pretty typical for our media polls. So, if these people don't answer polls, we can reasonably assume that they are either less active on the forum, or less engaged in politics. If that is the case, however, why did they show up to vote at all? And why turn out for OD? There weren't any significant policy differences between the candidates, so there must be another reason. Perhaps our next questions will shed some light on this inquiry.

Exit3.jpg


  • OD asked if I had voted and gave me a link. He was the only candidate who approached and I liked the initiative so he got my vote.
  • All of the candidates had lots of flaws. I was truly ambivalent for either candidate in the run-off. I voted for OD because it looked like Bowzin would run away with it in the following run-off.
  • My initial candidate lost. I liked the idea of cuddles getting some experience in the Senate with a large Senate and thought it would serve him (and the region) in good stead. Then, between Bowzin and OD, I thought OD would have plenty of stuff to do leading the development of Arnhelm, and I liked the idea of Bowzin getting his feet wet in the Senate (similar to my rationale for cuddles). I liked all four candidates and could have justified a vote for each. (More detail than you asked for, BUT I HAD A LOT TO SAY)
  • Cause cuddles didnt make it
  • Because OD said he cooked a mean steak. How can I say no to that. Just thought that it'd be nice to give both candidates a vote really.
  • OD personally reaching out to me on voting day, and answering my questions swayed my vote.
  • Note I actually didn't vote in the runoff but it's a required question so I picked the candidate I would have voted for if a work crisis hadn't gotten in the way
  • Izzy is a party member who I agree with on many policies, OD is also a very close minded friend who I have seen past performance from and respect
  • OD seemed like a good choice, after recently having positive conversations with him it seemed only natural to vote for OD
  • Bowzin is great. Great term as Min Culture. Great energy. Great disposition. OD is lazy.

Here we see what I believe to be the most important piece of this puzzle. Even among a pool that overrepresents Bowzin voters, we can see the disparity in who was contacted in relation to the election, in a practice commonly referred to as "Get Out The Vote" or "GOTV". The vast majority of our respondents were contacted exclusively by OD, and as the comments in the next section show, that persuaded a fair number of people. We can only imagine what impact that had on our less politically active citizens. And unfortunately, we will have to imagine since they didn't take this poll, but that's kind of the point, isn't it?

So, there you have it: our best effort at understanding this by-election and runoff. After reviewing the evidence, it seems pretty cut and dry, but I will remind our readers that unfortunately polls like this can only capture part of the story. While I hope this journey into the data was an enlightening one, I encourage you all to keep your minds open and look for information where you can, so the future of Europeia is brighter than ever. Until next time, this is Calvin Coolidge, simultaneously talking about this article on mixlr.
 
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[...]OD is lazy.
He...is? I would love more proof of this honestly. :p

It's what I thought though. OD reached out to me day of the run-off. He GOTV and anyone - AEX- will tell you it works.
 
I guess this poll suggests that relatively uninvolved citizens can still be the difference maker in elections despite stricter activity requirements.
 
I guess this poll suggests that relatively uninvolved citizens can still be the difference maker in elections despite stricter activity requirements.
Eh this is pretty jaded.

I think Bowzin went in ahead because of name recognition from his runner-up status. But that kinda support is "soft", you're supporting someone because you remember them and want to give them a shot.

Olde Delaware then popped in, and decided to message people one-on-one and turn them. Because there weren't any huge policy differences, people liked being approached and voted accordingly.

Europeia is an amazing place because anyone can win. There are so many stories of giants falling (or near misses). That's what makes this place exceptional, being good isn't always enough. You have to want to win.
 
A decent portion of the "Why did you switch your vote" comments point towards what HEM said above. I was certainly surprised about the sharp vote-swing from Bowzin to Olde Delaware, but it shouldn't be too surprising when you consider GOTV initiatives and all the factors described above.
 
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