- Pronouns
- He/Him
A REAL POLLING CENTRE, ARNHELM - The ARN conducted a poll on the Senate by-election from 30 September to 1 October, with 27 respondents. Here are the results:
Electorate satisfied with current field
Respondents were mostly satisfied with the current field of candidates, with 85% satisfied to 15% dissatisfied. However, some candidates could enter the race and receive some level of support, such as Lloenflys, who despite taking a step back from the region remains popular with the electorate. Other names mentioned includes Seva, SkyGreen24, and Deepest House.
Josi clear frontrunner in Senate race, GraVandius still in a position to catch up
Josi, a newcomer in the region, has managed to propel herself into an immediate first place in the race since her entrance yesterday. Managing to capture 41% of the vote, she has a comfortable lead over second-place GraVandius, who may find himself impeded by his recent controversial term as Senate Speaker, and his break from the region. Madeline Norfolk, also a relative newcomer to regional politics, is not without her supporters either. Either way, this race seems to be Josi’s to lose, but GraVandius could catch up with a serious GOTV campaign, or by capturing the sizable Undecided vote of 22 percent.
GraVandius would narrowly force a runoff currently
When respondents were faced with the hypothetically situation of the election taking place today, the number of undecided voters declined to a mere 7.5%: equal numbers of Undecided voters split for Josi and GraVandius, with no voters switching to Madeline Norfolk (except for an interesting exception below). In this scenario, GraVandius narrowly forces a runoff with Josi maintaining a 15-percent lead over GraVadius, capturing 48% of the vote to GraVandius’ 33%. Under this scenario Josi could easily win with a GOTV campaign or capturing the remaining voters, while GraVandius’ winning chances decline in this scenario due to the decrease in undecided voters.
Individual Breakdowns: Josi voters more committed than GraVandius voters
Here in this section, you’ll see a score named “Commit Index”: that is an average of all the commitment scores from supporters of a candidate.
Electorate satisfied with current field
Respondents were mostly satisfied with the current field of candidates, with 85% satisfied to 15% dissatisfied. However, some candidates could enter the race and receive some level of support, such as Lloenflys, who despite taking a step back from the region remains popular with the electorate. Other names mentioned includes Seva, SkyGreen24, and Deepest House.
Josi, a newcomer in the region, has managed to propel herself into an immediate first place in the race since her entrance yesterday. Managing to capture 41% of the vote, she has a comfortable lead over second-place GraVandius, who may find himself impeded by his recent controversial term as Senate Speaker, and his break from the region. Madeline Norfolk, also a relative newcomer to regional politics, is not without her supporters either. Either way, this race seems to be Josi’s to lose, but GraVandius could catch up with a serious GOTV campaign, or by capturing the sizable Undecided vote of 22 percent.
When respondents were faced with the hypothetically situation of the election taking place today, the number of undecided voters declined to a mere 7.5%: equal numbers of Undecided voters split for Josi and GraVandius, with no voters switching to Madeline Norfolk (except for an interesting exception below). In this scenario, GraVandius narrowly forces a runoff with Josi maintaining a 15-percent lead over GraVadius, capturing 48% of the vote to GraVandius’ 33%. Under this scenario Josi could easily win with a GOTV campaign or capturing the remaining voters, while GraVandius’ winning chances decline in this scenario due to the decrease in undecided voters.
Here in this section, you’ll see a score named “Commit Index”: that is an average of all the commitment scores from supporters of a candidate.
CI = 33/9 = 3.66
He has the vast amount of experience and clearly understands the law better.
Experience
He has the experience and I like the ideas in his platform.
Experience, Confidence, and Expertise
Experience
He's displayed competence, the others haven't.
Experience
He has the experience and I like the ideas in his platform.
Experience, Confidence, and Expertise
Experience
He's displayed competence, the others haven't.
CI = 51/13 = ~4
Josi is fresh, excited, intelligent, engaged, and lovely to talk to. A difference from the other two hopefuls.
They're a fresh face in Europeia, but with solid ideas and experience in other region. I think the Senate needs that.
New guy but interested and seems like he might develop a legislators chops. Half term perfect for trying him out.
Previous legislative experience, yet a new face in Europeia.
She has outlined her experienced properly, seems like a rising star
New, fresh face with passion and experience; just what we need
Someone with experience from outside euro and energy seems like a good addition.
A very impressive platform
They're a fresh face in Europeia, but with solid ideas and experience in other region. I think the Senate needs that.
New guy but interested and seems like he might develop a legislators chops. Half term perfect for trying him out.
Previous legislative experience, yet a new face in Europeia.
She has outlined her experienced properly, seems like a rising star
New, fresh face with passion and experience; just what we need
Someone with experience from outside euro and energy seems like a good addition.
A very impressive platform
CI: Sample Size Too Low
Because of her general NS experience
great to see new faces run, but Maddie came out of the blue and Josi is still a little new
Good luck to everyone.
Glory and honour to the democratic republic of Europeia!
Meh, it's a by-election.
Good luck to everyone.
Glory and honour to the democratic republic of Europeia!
Meh, it's a by-election.
Last edited:
I didn't take this poll, but maybe I should really read these platforms sooner rather than later.