New Candidates Shake Up Senate Race; Xecrio Continues to Lead First Minister Race

[Lime]

New Candidates Shake Up Senate Race;
Xecrio Continues to Lead First Minister Race
EuroWeekly Flash Poll Results and Analysis
By Lime
​

From the 15th to the 16th of June, EuroWeekly ran its second flash poll covering both the Senate and First Minister elections. The poll received a total of 21 respondents, an increase of one since the first flash poll which ran from the 14th to the 16th of June. Results from this poll should be taken with a pinch of salt, as with all polls in Europeia there is no way to scientifically conduct them. The response rate is also slightly lower than what Europeian polls typically receive, with most polls receiving 25 - 30 responses. This should also be noted when reading the results.

Senate Election

The entrance of Calvin and Pichtonia has clearly shaken up the Senate race, with this poll suggesting both are clear frontrunners alongside GraVandius and Darkslayer. Their entrance into the race has come at the expense of SEC and Lime, with three respondents saying they are no longer considering SEC, and one no longer considering Lime. When forced to select candidates however, SEC and Lime both take major hits with Lime's vote total falling by half and SEC's falling by more than half. The other candidates have all seen their standing improve since the previous poll, with all seeing their vote totals increase by one. While there is still hope for SEC and Lime, with a majority of respondents still considering both campaigns, this poll does still paint a less competitive election than the pervious poll predicted. It should be noted that this poll worked on the assumption of a six person Senate, with the previous worked on the assumption of a five person Senate. We won't know how large the Senate shall be until Election Day.

Spoiler: Are there any other players you would like to see run for Senate?

Lloenflys, Drecq, CSP, Deepest House
I still want PhDre to run
Can't rule out an HEM run

Spoiler: Any comments regarding the Senate election?

you should have restarted the poll instead of going forth with the first which was out of date before you posted the results.
Can we just go ahead and stop bringing up private poll results? This has been an issue that was already settled, and now a vocal minority on one side of the debate has decided compromise wasn't good enough. It's a bad idea, plain and simple.

First Minister Election

The entrance of McEntire/Monkey appears to have come at the expense of Peeps/Forilian, while it has had a minimal impact on Xecrio/Ervald's campaign. Just four respondents say they are considering Peeps/Forilian compared with nine in the previous poll. Xecrio/Ervald have seen one additional person saying they are considering their campaign and lead overall with 76% of respondents considering them. McEntire/Monkey are close behind Xecrio/Ervald with 67% of respondents considering their campaign. Based on these results alone, it would appear that the McEntire/Monkey campaign are providing a far greater challenge to Xecrio/Ervald than Peeps/Forilian ever did, with significantly more respondents considering their campaign than had ever considered the Peeps/Forilian ticket. When forced to pick a candidate, Xecrio/Ervald continue their lead, with 13 respondents selecting them, the same number who said they would vote for them in the previous poll. Peeps/Forilian have seen their share of the vote shrink massively, from 25% in the previous poll to just 9.5% in this one. McEntire/Monkey received a larger share of the vote at 29% than Peeps/Forilian did in the previous poll, again suggesting they are providing a stronger challenge to Xecrio/Ervald. However they are still far behind Xercio/Ervald who based on these results, would win the election comfortably on the first round, avoiding the need for a run-off. The results of both polls suggest that Xecrio/Ervald are the frontrunners in this election and the other two campaigns will need to work hard to improve their standing.

Peeps/Forilian Platform

Spoiler: Comments

As I said last time, it lacks detail and the questions have not added any more detail.
Forilian was a bad choice for SM
I have not read the new one but the old one was quite lackluster
Which platform? Honestly...it feels like mostly vague ways to improve things, but not much concrete direction. You could get away with that if you were a WL or maybe a Pichto, but I don't think this ticket can afford it.
I do not get why people are saying their platform is bad. Short and sweet is better than a long, huge piece that takes two hours to read.

This will be a very disappointing results for the Peeps/Forilian campaign, with the vast majority of respondents at 76.2% saying they dissatisfied with their platform in some form, an increase of 16.2% since the previous poll. Based on the comments, it appears that many respondents are concerned about an apparent lack of detail in their platform, with most commenters describing the platform in a negative light. It should be noted that Peeps/Forilian launched a second and updated platform while this poll was open. Therefore some respondents took the poll before their second platform was launched, while others took it after the launch. This may therefore affect the results.

Xecrio/Ervald's Platform

Spoiler: Comments

It's a good platform.
Was a bit surprised, but yes! They're likely my top choice, barring a strong push from McEntire/Monkey.

Cementing their frontrunner status, respondents are most satisfied with Xecrio/Ervald's platform with a massive 90.4% of respondents satisfied in some form, with a slight increase of 3.3% for strongly satisfied. The two comments suggest that respondents are happy with the platform presented to them and this is a good sign for the Xecrio/Ervald ticket going forward.

McEntire/Monkey's Platform

Spoiler: Comments

The part about integration left a somewhat bad taste in my mouth considering he was and is in charge of it. I'm also a bit concerned that they want to achieve all this in just 35 days.
Why is McEntire's campaign criticizing Weekend Games when he hasn't played a single one all term, or in recent memory period?
I feel like he does not properly address his inactivity over the past weeks.

These results are very good for the McEntire/Monkey campaign and shows that they are able to compete with the Xecrio/Ervald ticket and provide a challenge to them. 85.7% of respondents are satisfied with their platform in some form, a difference of only 4.7% compared with Xecrio/Ervald's platform and interestingly both have the same number of respondents who said they were "strongly satisfied." While the three comments are all negative, most raising concerns about McEntire's activity, these results suggest that based on their platforms there is not much separating McEntire/Monkey and Xecrio/Ervald.

Spoiler: Are there any other players you would like to see run for First Minister?

Satisfied with current field

While in the previous poll half of respondents named someone they would like to see stand, with McEntire mentioned in half of those, no names have been suggested here. It would appear that with the entrance of McEntire into the race respondents are happy with the current field.

Spoiler: Any comments regarding the First Minister election?

Can't say I'm satisfied with anyone's plans for Integration, and everyone's thinking about ways to improve Culture but no one is quite hitting that nail on the head.

 

[Sopo]

Rather low response rate compared to what we're used to. Maybe the Lime and SEC supporters missed the poll...

 

[Lime]

Rather low response rate compared to what we're used to. Maybe the Lime and SEC supporters missed the poll...

Yes it was unfortunately. Perhaps it could have been because it was only open for 24hrs? I usually receive an extra 5 or so responses in the final 24hrs of a 48hr poll. At the same time however, we've had 24hr polls receive the "typical" response rate of 28, so I'm not sure.

And I certainty hope so! Although based on the previous poll and how many people are considering us, it appears that our support was mostly "soft" support and the two new candidates took most of that support away. As I mentioned in my analysis though, it's definitely not over for either campaign!

 

[Lethen]

I'm honestly surprised that SEC is polling better than Forilian. I thought the latter had a stronger platform

 

[Maowi]

I'm honestly surprised that SEC is polling better than Forilian. I thought the latter had a stronger platform

Me too, and it's quite a significant difference too, particularly in the "considering" question. I wonder if it's that people are happier to consider a first-time candidate - iirc SEC hasn't run in an election before? - than someone like Forilian who is still very much a newcomer but has run in elections and presented his platform before, and has won a position.

 

[Lethen]

Maybe that's it? I don't know if I buy that either. I'd love to hear some thoughts from the people that didn't vote for Fori as to why not.

 

[Darkslayer]

I think some concerns have arisen from his run for second minister and senator, whilst also holding the position of Mayor of Arnhelm. I wouldn't be surprised if some were concerned whether he could handle all those responsibilities.

 

[Forilian]

I think some concerns have arisen from his run for second minister and senator, whilst also holding the position of Mayor of Arnhelm. I wouldn't be surprised if some were concerned whether he could handle all those responsibilities.

I addressed this question in my platform on Saturday, but if anyone still has any concerns feel free to ask me! Basically what I said was that the Mayor position ends on 1 July, and then SM ends on 25 July. Therefore, I would really only hold 3 positions for 10 days, which I believe I can handle.