March 2019 Senate Election Poll Results and Analysis Written by Comrade Prim
Following the strong buzz from Common-Sense Politics' Smokin' Poll from earlier this month, it was quite a surprise to see so few people stand for this Senate election. The EBC ran a poll several days after standing opened for the upcoming Senate Election, though by that time only five candidates had stood. This poll does not include the most recent candidate to stand, current Senate Speaker Aexnidaral. It is also up in the air on how many seats the next Senate will have, though with a field of 6 candidates, it seems that a 5-seat Senate is likely. This poll only received 23 responses, so there is a possibility for a shift in these numbers if more voters show up on Friday, along with the addition of Aexnidaral to the ballot.
Coming in with the highest support at 82.6% approval, Senator Lloenflys is a strong contender in this election. Despite not having served a full Senate term, Lloenflys' level of engagement and his recent nomination as Minister of Culture so soon after joining the region speak to his popularity and effort in the region. Even given the recent standing of current Senate Speaker Aexnidaral, Lloenflys is likely to have a strong shot at a second term in the Senate.
Former Senate Speaker JayDee's approval ratings are middling at 52.2% approval, with 30.4% disapproval. While these approval numbers are above 50% and JayDee does enjoy the benefit of having little competition during this election, these numbers do show some hesitation from the region on returning JayDee to the Senate. With the inclusion of Aexnidaral in the election, there could be a possibility that one nominee will fail to attain a seat.
Grand Admiral Common-Sense Politics (CSP) received 69.6% approval, rounding out the top of the pack. These numbers show that many in Europeia still see strong leadership skills in CSP, with Senate Speaker Aexnidaral endorsing him to run for Senate Speaker in the upcoming session as well as Kuramia recently nominating him to Grand Admiral. Though his recent return to the region may have blunted these approval numbers slightly, it seems likely that CSP will be joining the ranks of the Senate in the next session.
At the bottom of the candidate list, Senator United Vietussia (UV) received only 39.1% approval in this poll, with 39.1% also disapproving. Though several bills were recently passed in the Senate that were authored by UV, his inactivity for much of the current session may have weighed these approval numbers down. His platform and comments have responded to these concerns, noting that he has learned from his inactivity. Nevertheless, there may be some difficulties on election day if these numbers hold steady.
Former CA Chair Winged Bear (also formerly CA Chair as Grizzli and Airbus) enjoys a strong 78.2% approval rating, coming in just under Senator Lloenflys. To note, Winged Bear does not have any disapproval, a strong showing for the Senate hopeful. Having been a very strong and engaging CA Chair several times in recent years, Winged Bear has long been a favorite to enter the Senate and, with these approval numbers, it seems this may finally be the term.
Moving from the individual approval ratings to a question of probability, there are a couple of notable shifts. Lloenflys, Winged Bear, and JayDee all seem to have the same percentages as their approvals. Common-Sense Politics and United Vietussia both seem to have gained in comparison to their approval votes. While only 69.6% approved of CSP, 78.3% believe he will likely be a Senator during the next session. Similarly, though his approval was only 39.1%, United Vietussia was given a 47.8% likelihood of becoming a Senator. These numbers could be pointing to voters who were on the fence in approval ultimately voting for these candidates, or perhaps to the seeming lack of options in the field leading people to suspect that all five candidates would basically be elected by default. Regardless of the motivation, this question does give a silver lining to United Vietussia, that there may be some undecided voters who may swing in his direction.
This analysis is likely to be slightly upended by the entry of current Senate Speaker Aexnidaral on Tuesday. The previous five candidates would have faced off against an option to Re-Open Elections, providing some risk to low-approval candidates, though with Aexnidaral now standing and six total candidates in the running, it seems likely that there could be one person to lose in this election, which brings a new aspect to the election that wasn't present during the poll. Where Speaker Aexnidaral stands in relation to these other candidates isn't known, so there could still be room for competition.
I suspect JayDee and UV will be fighting for the last seat. I’d also expect Aex to finish somewhat in the middle due to the late entry but I suspect he’s not in danger of loosing here.
