Live Coverage: Senate Double By-Election

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Live Coverage: Senate Double By-Election
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It's election day in Europeia, with a double by-election now open. After the resignations of Olde Delawere and Rotasu, two Senate seats are currently vacant, with a massive field of seven candidates vying to win one of the two seats. Despite the large field of candidates, the one opinion poll published suggested that GraVandius and Ervald would both walk away from the by-election with an easy win. While current results show GraVandius and Ervald leading, it appears that a runoff for the second seat remains a distinct possibility.

Results Over Time.png


As the graph shows us, GraVandius and Ervald are in a tight battle for first place, with Ervald currently slightly ahead. Darkslayer is currently in third place, not too far behind, however, he'll need to significantly close the gap if he wants a chance to win a seat. The remaining candidates are in a league of their own, likely too far behind to be considered serious challengers for either seat anymore.

EuroWeekly will be providing updates throughout Election Day and will be keeping you up to date with the election as it progresses. As of this moment, we are stating that it is too early to call either of the Senate seats, however, we will be hoping to make a projection when we are able.
 
Oh yay live coverage! It's handy to see the progress over time, thanks for doing this Lime
 
Election Update

As of the last update EuroWeekly has received of the vote tally (22:05 BST) 41 votes have been cast in this Senate by-election.

Results Over Time2.png


As we can see, from the third hour onwards Ervald and GraVandius have maintained their frontrunner status staying well in the lead. At both the third and fourth hour, both candidates received a vote, however, at the fifth GraVandius flatlined while Ervald picked up an extra vote allowing him to extend his lead to two votes. Both campaigns should be feeling happy that they have remained in the lead and the Ervald camp must be very happy to be polling in first place at the moment and extending their lead over GraVandius.

GraVandius told our reporter: "I’m feeling fairly well, it’s still a very close race though that could really break either way."

The current frontrunner Ervald told us: "I am somewhat surprised by how I am doing due to private articles and polling suggest I would do well, but not this well. I am just glad to see such good turnout in this election with a field full of great candidates."

Remaining in third place is Darkslayer. Between the third and fourth hour, Darkslayer saw no increase to his vote share, however, at the fifth hour his vote share has begun to increase with an additional two votes being cast for him. While Darkslayer is far more competitive in this by-election than he was in the last, and there is still the chance for him to tie or win second place, his campaign would likely be disappointed in another third-place result in essentially the same circumstances. Just as in the last by-election Darkslayer appears to be far ahead of most of the competition, however, he has been unable to overtake the two experienced frontrunners who are dominating the race.

In a sign that he wants to keep momentum alive in his campaign, Darkslayer told EuroWeekly: "I wish to start by thanking all those who have voted me so far, and have helped me so much for expressing their support. Of course, we're still waiting to see what happens, as this election can go anyway possible. I am still sure that regardless of who wins the two seats, they will be great faces in the Senate. But thank you to all those who have partaken in voting, and there's still plenty of the night left for some to vote still. So it will be interesting to see what happens in the final hours of voting."

There has been almost no movement in the lower polling candidates. Forilian has seen a steady increase in his vote share increasing by one at both the fourth and fifth hour, now resting at seven, putting him in fourth place. The Re-open elections option picked up a vote at the third hour but has seen no increase since then. Izzy has flatlined at four votes since the second hour, while Verteger has flatlined at the third hour with seven votes. SkyGreen saw one vote at the third hour tieing him with Izzy at four votes each but has seen no increase since. For all the campaigns here these results are likely to be a disappointment as it is extremely unlikely any of them will win either one of the two seats.

The results aren't terrible for Forilian, a newcomer to the region, and while he is unlikely to win a seat in this election, these results could still help him in the General Election should he decide to run. Similarly, these results aren't terrible for Verteger, however, he would not receive as big a bounce as Forilian might in a future General Election. For SkyGreen, these results are already an improvement from his last by-election and while they are by no means great, this will still be a bit of encouragement for him. For Izzy however, there is little if any positivity in these results. He might have been expecting such results, given that he stood on the more unpopular positions for the reform process.

EuroWeekly is now stating that it is too close to call any winners yet. Darkslayer remains close enough behind the two frontrunners to threaten the possibility of a runoff, and both Ervald and GraVandius are neck and neck meaning that it is unclear who will win first place, and who may end up tieing with Darkslayer causing a runoff to occur.
 
Great work lime! I'm glad that you decided to put this out, I think it's pretty insightful to see how the votes change over time and how they may have deviated from our expectations. I'll definitely be curious to see how the final numbers compare to the last two polls released by me and Sopo
 
Just curious: Are these going to be updated at a schedule or just whenever you feel like it?
 
Forilian said:
Just curious: Are these going to be updated at a schedule or just whenever you feel like it?
Click to expand...

Just when I get round to it. I had planned to do another update before that one but I got busy. There won't be another update until late tomorrow as it's past 23:00 here and I've got work in the morning tomorrow and won't be home until the afternoon.
 
Update it
GraVandius and Darkslayer are now tied
Verteger looks like he's in it to win it
 
Election Update: Seat Projection

We are now in the final stages of this double by-election and much has changed since our last update.

Results Over Time3.png


Ervald has extended his lead winning an additional four votes since our last update. He is currently three votes ahead of the candidate in second place. It is in the race for second place that we have seen the most dramatic change. GraVandius who has for much of this race been closely behind Ervald, has only gained one extra vote since our last update. Darkslayer who had been lagging behind the two frontrunners has seen a late surge in support, with an additional six votes being cast for him. He has now narrowly overtaken GraVandius by just one vote, with Darkslayer sitting at 19 votes and GraVandius at 18. This dramatic turn of events has truly increased the heat of this by-election with a run-off election now looking like a real possibility.

With 53 ballots cast, there are unlikely to be many more voters still to cast a vote, meaning the pressure on both the GraVandius and Darkslayer campaign will be immense. The GraVandius campaign will want to find an additional few votes to place them over Darkslayer to win a seat outright. At the very least they'll be looking to win just one more vote to tie with Darkslayer and thus cause a runoff election between them. The Darkslayer campaign will want to win a few more votes to separate them just a little more from GraVandius and thus secure their win. If they can't win any more votes then they'll be hoping or trying to prevent GraVandius from winning any more votes to prevent him from tying with them, or worse overtaking them.

There has also been an upward movement amongst the lower polling candidates. Forilian after seeing a little bit of stagnation has increased his vote share by two, keeping him in fourth place with 12 votes. Verteger has seen his largest increase in the vote share, with an additional three votes cast for him. He is now right behind Forilian with 11 votes. Izzy has also seen his largest increase in the vote share, winning an additional two votes with an overall total of seven. SkyGreen who had been flatlining for much of this race has now seen a slight increase winning one vote since our last update. While none of these candidates will win a Senate seat in this by-election they will still want to see their totals increase, if not for ego, then for a potential boost to their election chances in the upcoming general election. A strong performance in a by-election often sets a candidate up for winning a seat in the General Election and this is likely something many of the campaigns will be thinking about.



EuroWeekly is now ready to make a major projection. EuroWeekly is now projecting that Ervald will win a Senate seat. While the margins between the top three candidates are very close, based on the turnout of recent Senate elections, the remaining time left to vote, and Ervald's current and consistent lead in first place, EuroWeekly is now confident in projecting an Ervald win. The second Senate seat, however, remains too close to call. With the margins between all three of the top candidates so close, and the difference between second and third place just one vote, EuroWeekly cannot make a projection yet.
 
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