Lime Sees Slight Gain in Momentum, but Peeps Still Remains the Regional Frontrunner
Written by Monkey
Written by Monkey
Published 29 September 2020
These are the results from the flash poll I ran following the presidential debate hosted by EBC radio. The poll received only 21 responses, which is a very low response rate, but it probably gives us an accurate representation of what the citizens who listened to the debate thought. Out of the 21 responses, 17 listened to the debate. Both of the recent polls are a little lower in response rate (26 and 21 respectively) so it’s important to note that there could be a drastic shift in the actual vote come election day.
Both candidates see a strengthening within their base of support, Lime makes some inroads, but not enough to overtake Peep’s lead.
In this poll, Peeps loses a small amount of support, but still clings to 50 percent of the vote, down 7 percent from the last poll. Both candidates also see a decrease in the leaning voters, with an increase in strong support, signaling that voters are making up their minds. Peeps loses a greater amount of leaning voters than Lime, while Lime gains more stronger voters.
I think the biggest takeaway is that the the majority of the poll takers came in supporting Peeps (nearly 60 percent supported Peeps before the debate), but Peeps loses some of that support. Lime comes in with a little over 30 percent of the vote in the beginning, but finishes out with a small gain, ending around 40 percent. When looking at the data, one undecided and one Peeps voter flipped for Lime, while only one Lime voter flipped to undecided. One Peeps vote also flipped to undecided. In general, there were a lot of ‘strengthening’ of stances, with quite a few responses going from ‘leaning’ towards a candidate to ‘strongly’ supporting a candidate.
Lime holds slight edge over Peeps in satisfaction with answering platform question, beats Peeps in voter base ‘loyalty’
Both candidates received satisfaction ratings well above a majority in satisfaction with regards to answering questions on platforms, however Lime does slightly better with Peeps. I think the two main things to note are that both candidates receive 100% satisfaction from their own group. It’s also interesting to see that Lime’s voters seem to hold a higher degree of loyalty when disapproving of Peeps, while actually, a majority of Peeps supporters are satisfied with how Lime answers questions as well. This could be a good or bad thing for our electoral culture, depending on how you look at it, but this sense of high ‘loyalty’ from Lime voters showed up in the first section, when no Lime voters defected to Peep’s campaign, and shows up in later questions too.
Majority of electorate is ok with releasing cabinet picks, extremely high satisfaction with Lime’s listed cabinet
Overall, most responses indicated approval of Lime’s cabinet release, and an extremely large majority of the region approved of the picks overall. Once again, when the results are broken down into the supporters of each candidate, you’ll see that 100 percent of Lime’s voting base supports his decision, while the Peeps camp is much more split, but even then, a slight majority of Peeps supporters are ok with a cabinet release. Comments mostly split between criticizing Lime’s lackluster campaign or criticizing Peep’s decision to withhold nominees.
Comments:
- A great selection of candidates
- The cabinet nominees should be released. Peeps released it in the FM election, I don't get why the sudden change. If he was happy with his picks, he should release them for scrutiny.
- Release the nominees.
- Peeps should release his picks. His answer is not consistent with his record of releasing his Cabinet picks when running for First Minister and is pretty hypocritical.
- Strong debate performance from Lime, but his lacking platform removes any confidence I would have in voting for him
- The moment where Peeps and Lime were debating over the Navy really shows Lime's relatively low experience in FA.
- i didn't buy peeps answer on releasing cabinet picks
- Calvin as attorney general after his executive order is quite the choice
Overall, Peeps appears to be the clear winner of the debate, with even a few Lime voters marking that they felt Peeps was the winner over Lime. Candidate loyalty only goes so strong it appears. When it comes with answer satisfaction, not surprisingly, both candidates receive higher satisfaction from their own camps then the supporters of the opposing tickets. The biggest difference is that Peeps seems to have a bigger contrast in terms of having high approval but also high approval, while the reaction to Lime’s answers seem more well rounded, with almost a third each of approve, disapprove, and neutral.
I also asked a question regarding debate importance. Two-thirds of responses said it was somewhat important, with the remaining splitting into very important and neither important nor unimportant. Not surprising.
Comments:
- Lime absolutely wiped the floor with Peeps. In each of their confrontations Lime clearly came up on top and Peeps seemed unsure what had happened. Lime clearly came across as the stronger candidate while Peeps seemed flustered and confused.
- Lime really surprised me with how well he performed in the debate. Peeps didn't come out of any of the little fights better off, and he was pretty disappointing overall.
- was undecided but peeps had a bad debate
Overall, I don’t know if the momentum shift caused by the debate is enough to shake up the race. It’s still a very close race, and Lime still will need to do something drastic to pull ahead of Peeps. It’s interesting that a small trend seems to be that Lime has a more supportive or loyal voting base, and that comes across in the data as well as the comments, which seem to strongly favor Lime or his actions, while at times even criticizing Peeps.
I want to place another reminder that this poll only received 21 responses, so while it may be telling of what the people who listened to the debate thought, it is very difficult to apply this to an election situation and try to predict the outcome on election day.
