June Senate Poll Analysis Ups and Downs Written by Dax, Astrellan, and Unmighty Hezekon
(June 14, 2019) - With the Senate General Election happening in just 7 days, the EBC published a poll to determine the public's thoughts about the past term for the Senate. Respondents were asked to give their overall satisfaction for the Senate, rate its productivity this term, give a satisfaction rating for the current sitting Senators, state to what degree they would encourage them to run for re-election, and rate the possible candidates they would like to see on the Senate next term. 33 Citizens filled out this particular poll and here are their thoughts and feelings:
The Senate Section written by Astrellan
In a surprising display of numbers, only 45.5 percent of respondents state they are satisfied with the Senate this term with only 6.1 percent of those individuals recording themselves as "Very Satisfied." A further 27.3 percent of respondents are dissatisfied with the Senate and the rest (27.3 percent) are neutral. This here is a huge change from previous independent poll results in March, where the Senate got an overall satisfaction rate of 75.8 percent. It is clear that there is a negative trend of satisfaction for the Senate following last term's results.
In terms of actual work put out, this term in the Senate has seen items like the Information Act, Deputy Devolution Amendment and the Line of Succession Act to name but a few. Moreover, the first-ever Chief of State election occurred, with two-time Chief of State Kuramia being chosen with Speaker Aexnidaral as her deputy. Despite this, however, the Senate has run into the issue of absences throughout this term. The only Senators to sit on the Senate this entire term has been Aexnidaral and United Vietussia, with former-Speaker CSP resigning, former-Senator Winged Bear being removed for inactivity, and First Minister Lloenyflys automatically resigning based on his successful campaign for his mentioned office. It is possible that this has led many respondents to be unsatisfied or neutral about the Senate this term.
Clutching a small majority, 57.6 percent of respondents say that the Senate has been productive to some degree in this term, with only 12.1 percent saying that the Senate has definitely been productive. As mentioned in the examples above, legislature has clearly been coming out of the Senate. However, if we took the last term into count, it is possibly clear why some people may not rate the Senate as very productive. The Executive Split, the Constitution, and a whole lot of other works that had been works-in-progress for a long time were passed and signed into law. It is clearly seen as a monumental achievement of the region's legislatures and any works coming out of the Senate this term pale in comparison.
That being said, however, there doesn't seem to be a major reason why the Senate was rated so low on productivity.
The Senators Section written by Dax
Senator United Vietussia’s overall satisfaction rate came in last out of all the Senators with just 24.3 percent of respondents noting satisfaction with him. Adding to this, his total satisfaction rate is below his huge dissatisfaction rate of 42.4 percent, with the last 33.3 percent being neutral on this matter. After being called out in the last senatorial term for being inactive, it seems he has continued this trend into this term by rarely commenting on most threads outside of voting, and the notable exception of the Information Act (2019) toward the start of the term. Therefore, this lack of ongoing activity had potentially led to him getting a lower satisfaction rate than his colleges.
Senator Rand’s results show a fairly high overall satisfaction rate at 57.5%. Rand has posted several proposals, fulfilling most, if not all of the promises in his platform this term, but has been seen by some people as 'uncooperative' in discussions such as the infamous foreign affairs regulations thread and on discord where Speaker Aexnidaral said “Rand was privately pushing to include everything he included in his most recent proposal.” All these possibly caused the overall dissatisfaction percentage to be 24.3 percent, with the largest amount of "very unsatisfied" responses at 18.2 percent of respondents.
Senator Prim’s results are no surprise as the four-time Senator made a return in a by-election to gain the deputy speaker position shortly after being elected under Speaker Aexnidaral. The returning Senator won the overall satisfaction rate of 75.8 percent, split evenly between satisfied and very satisfied. Prim’s activity in the Senate with adding valuable input in debates, notably the Criminal Code Review, taking the initiative to post the Chief of State vote when there were only three senators, as well as bringing up the concern of harassment issues with disclosing foreign affiliations combined with his past terms most certainly got him to be tied for the highest satisfaction rates.
Newcomer Senator Astrellan’s overall satisfaction rate tied for first with Senator Prim with a total of 75.8 percent, with 30.3 percent being very satisfied. After joining the Senate through a by-election after losing the first by-election he ran in to Senator Rand, Astrellan has remained active in Senate discussions as well as posting a proposal almost immediately after he was elected.
Speaker Aexnidaral boasts the highest very satisfied percentage of the Senate with a 48.5 percent with an overall satisfaction rate of 66.7 percent. Aexnidaral had taken initiative several times this term by running for speaker after CSP’s resignation, bringing attention to the Chief of State election, and providing compromises for split debates. He also introduced six proposals this term including bringing the Inherent Executive Moderation Term Fix Amendment (2019) discussion from the Citizens’ Assembly to the Senate despite it losing in the CA vote. Additionally, he has remained active in discussion throughout the entirety of the term, possibly causing the high satisfaction rate from the respondents.
The Elections Section written by Dax
Senator Re-Election
With Senator United Vietussia (UV) we see that people are rather neutral about re-election for the four-time senator. According to our analysis earlier in this article, possibly due to him being rather quiet in the Senate, only one respondent said they would very likely re-elect Senator UV if he ran again. Unfortunately for UV, eight respondents submitted that it would be very unlikely that they would re-elect him. By the looks of it, re-election isn’t likely for UV based on his high dissatisfaction rate and neutral feedback from this question, should he run for senator again.
Senator Rand has been active in the Senate after he was elected in the third by-election this term possibly leading to 12 respondents saying that they would re-elect him. However, 7 respondents submitted that they definitely would not re-elect him if he ran again, potentially caused by his low performance in previous terms in other offices. Re-election is certainly still possible for Rand considering his 57.5 percent satisfaction rate from the previous section, but it’s not impossible for him to lose the next election if he were to run.
After Senator Prim’s success last term and part of this term, it's no surprise 26 respondents said they would re-elect him if he ran again. Prim’s initiative to run in the by-election when the Senate was direly in need and activity throughout the term certainly played the biggest roles in his results. His 75.8 percent satisfaction rate paired with these re-election results would - most likely - easily secure him a seat in next term’s Senate if he ran.
Despite being tied for first with Senator Prim for satisfaction, Senator Astrellan easily comes in first for re-election with 29 respondents saying they would re-elect him with the other 4 at neutral possibility due to him being a fresh face to the Senate through a by-election. Astrellan’s 87.9 percent most likely results from his high activity and persistence to gain a spot in the Senate after losing his first by-election to Senator Rand. After his high satisfaction and re-election rates for only 29 days from the term, it’s safe to say citizens are eager to see what Senator Astrellan will do in a full term.
It makes sense that 26 respondents submitted they would re-elect Speaker Aexnidaral especially based off his running for speaker, activity in discussions, and six separate proposals in the Senate. These results suggest that he could return to the Senate easily, but taking into account his 66.7 percent satisfaction rate it seems likely Aexnidaral would be re-elected if he ran again.
It seems just over half of the senators stand good chances of being re-elected, notably Astrellan, Prim, and Aexnidaral. Astrellan specifically stands the best chance of having a seat in the 70th Senate due to no respondents submitting they were dissatisfied or wouldn’t re-elect him. On the other side, UV stands the lowest chance of re-election with 12 people saying they would not re-elect him in contrast to the 4 who said they would re-elect him. However, the majority were rather neutral about the senator.
Possible Senatorial Candidates Section written by Unmighty Hezekon
One of the final tasks respondents were asked to do was choose, out of a checklist, names of individuals they thought should run for the Senate in the upcoming General Election. Below are the names ordered from highest percentage to lowest, then alphabetically. Names followed by an asterisk (*) were suggested using the "Other" option.
There are many things to be said about this list. To start we have the top three - Senator Astrellan, Senator Prim, and Minister of Communication Hezekon. Far and away, Astrellan and Prim are the two standouts, with Astrellan being the favored at 27 picks, 4 above Prim (who is at 69.7 percent of respondents). As has been said before, it is possible that Astrellan's relative newness has people wanting to see more of him, to get a better understanding of what his policies might be. Regardless of the reason, it is obvious many (81.8 percent of respondents) want to see more of him.
Senator Prim's ranking seems to come from his high satisfaction rating. Respondents so far have appreciated what he has brought to the Senate, and as such give him a second-place tier. He had mentioned in his platform for the Senate by-election that he intended to get discussion of the Criminal Code review "back on track," and then followed through on that promise.
Below them, Senators Aexnidaral and Rand sit only 1 vote apart, with the former at 18 picks (54.5 percent) and the latter at 17 picks (51.5 percent), underneath Minister Hezekon at 19 picks (57.6 percent).
Near the middle of the pack sit UnitedPeoplesofCentrism (UPC), Whitmark, and United Vietussia (UV). What is surprising here is that a relative newcomer is sitting above in favorability to a sitting senator. UPC rests at 14 picks (42.4 percent of respondents), while UV is at 9 (27.3 percent). UPC may be receiving such attention from his close Senate by-election bid against then-former Senator Izzy, which drew much debate on the Discord server and spawned an ENN article discussing the alleged surge of newcomers into the government. It is possible some may wish to see him run again as a way to see such a surge come to fruition.
UV's low numbers paired with his lacklustre satisfaction percentage may come from a perceived lack of involvement or contribution to the Senate as a whole, something that may be a continuation of past trends. Whether intentional or otherwise, UV's lack of consistent 'facetime' may have resulted in such low numbers.
Near the bottom sit a bunch of suggested names, with DAX and Drecq occurring the most, at 3 mentions each (9.1 percent of respondents). It is possibly unlikely that these would win an election if they ran, but as their names were not included on the original selections, it is unclear whether either would garner more support if they presented a platform.
Overall, the individual senators scored fairly well with respondents, all having over 50 percent suggested re-run, excepting UV (at 27, a notable outlier at over 20 percentage points below the next senator, Rand. Of particular mention are Senators Prim and Astrellan, both near or over 70 percent of respondents' suggested picks for re-running. Astrellan is clearly leading, and if he were to re-run, would likely be voted in again. Despite their detractors, both Senators Rand and Aexnidaral seem to eke out positive favor with respondents.
It seems that while the Senate overall has been deemed less than fully productive (despite passing important legislation), the individual senators have a wide range of satisfaction marks. These range from incredibly high, with Senator Astrellan soaring in both satisfaction and re-election likelihood, to unfortunately low, with Senator UV earning some dissatisfied constituents. Lastly, again, Astrellan shows up as a face most wish to see on the Senate again, while UV again finds himself near the bottom of the pack. It is highly likely faces like Prim's and Astrellan's will be seen in the Senate again; however, until the campaign platforms roll out, it will be impossible to tell for sure.
I think this is a great article which goes into a substantial amount of depth. My only complaint would be the use of a 1-5 rating for re-election likelihood. Compared to a simple Yes/No/Undecided option, I think a rating system is harder to analyze.
I agree. But I felt saying "former Senator Izzy" made it sound like you were in office at the time. Overall, I made a judgment call, but I think you're right to call attention to it.
