Calvin Coolidge Campaign Picks Up Steam Before Debate
Written by Monkey
Published 5 June 2021Written by Monkey
This poll received 33 responses. While that's a good number of responses, it's still around half of the responses that our election will get on voting day, and candidates should keep in mind that any trends that I comment on or are visible in graphs listed below should be taken with a grain of salt, since it's a small sample size.
Vote Breakdown
Maybe the most interesting data point, the vote breakdown. Calvin easily reaches the 50% needed to win an election, winning 2/3 of the vote (22 voters). Kazaman lags behind with less than a quarter of the vote. The voter confidence breakdown shows that Calvin has a strong base of committed and very sure voters, but still has a sizeable portion of leaning voters. It's a little hard to keep track of comments, and many contradict others, showing a variety of opinions this election. A few comments pointing out a desire to vote for other candidates over the incumbent seem to surface, but there is also a lack of comments that praise the other option.
Doing some quick math, assuming that 62 voters vote in this upcoming election (the average of the last 3 presidential elections), Kazaman would need to win 83% of the remaining voters, while Calvin would need 34% of voters to achieve a majority.
- Foreign policy, interior
- Kazaman has kept so many of his promises and I've impressed by the work he's done this term.
- I feel Calvin has a stronger platform for FA & justice, but Kaz has a stronger platform for culture and comms.
- Kaz's issue with Dakota, and some of the tone of his FA platform edge me away from him, though Calvin's not ideal on that front either.
- Creative thinking, similar views
- Sound judgment
- The last term under the Kaz admin has been nothing but underwhelming, especially because going into the term there was so much promise for innovative change. Feels like every project or major initiative has been bungled somehow. Not literally but you get my point. This vote is a lot less "vote for Calvin on his merits" and a lot more "vote for anyone but Kaz" for me personally.
- Don't want Kaza for another term.
Platform Preferences
The overall poll shows a slight preference for ministry platforms (55%), but when sorted by campaigns, the results differentiate a little bit, with Calvin voters preferring ministry-organized platforms, and Kazaman goal-organized platforms. Not too surprising.
Field Satisfaction
Overall, most of the region seems satisfied with the field of candidates. Something interesting to note is that all of Kazaman's voters are satisfied with the field, while Calvin's voters vary in satisfaction. This could possibly be a continuation of some voters this election looking for a change in the Goldenblock, but perhaps they aren't necessarily completely happy with the one option they have. On the other hand, supporters that plan to vote for Kazaman may see two viable candidates.
- Monkey
- Darkslayer
- Isty or Dark
- Someone who magically held every idea I did... while not being me.
- Lime, Monkey
- Would've liked one more srs ticket.
Platform and Debate Satisfaction
Overall, it seems that most voters said the platform influenced who they would support (65%), but did not play a major part (24%) or little (12%). Perhaps many voters already had a candidate to support in mind by the time platforms were released, which would explain the 'medium'-role that platforms played this election. Interesting to note, all 4 responses that said the platform played little-to-no role in making their decision were Calvin supporters, so there may possibly be a real trend of 'anti-Kazaman' voters this election, but I'm not sure if either of the candidates are particularly enthusiastic about this news.
The importance of debate performance was nearly evenly split between the lower two options of influencing a decision (slightly higher), or playing little-to-no part in a decision. Debate performance seems to continue to be a lower ranking factor in voters' minds, but they're fun to watch, at least....right?
GOTV
Across the board, most responses indicated that hearing from a candidate would make them more likely to vote for that candidate (a little under 2/3). In each group, it seems like those with weaker support want to hear from the candidates, while those who made up their mind could go without (which is expected). Interestingly, nearly all of Kazaman's supporters indicated that they wouldn't mind engaging with a candidate on that ticket, so that could be something important to keep in mind for the Kazaman campaign.
Ministry Priorities
None of these results are particularly interesting. FA continues to be a major focus in platforms, but in light of recent approval polling and/or regional discussions, it seems like the ministries of culture and radio might get extra scrutiny this election as recent issues in the region.