From August 16-17, I conducted a poll (split in two) in the Grand Hall that garnered 26 (the second part got 23) responses. Tomorrow, the election kicks off and three tickets will compete to become the next residents of the Goldenblock. But for now, let's see how the race stands one last time.
Platforms
The Favorable Numbers (First Poll -> Second Poll -> This Poll)
JayDee/Pichtonia: 42.3% -> 44.4% -> 61.6%
Gem/Sanjurika: 77% -> 55.5% -> N/A (Dropped out)
Kazaman/Comfed: 54% -> 66.6% -> 50%
McEntire/UPC: N/A -> 25.9% -> 11.5%
After the last poll, we've been a significant drop in the favorable ratings of Kazaman and McEntire's platforms, while also seeing a significant boost for JayDee's. This is after two polls of middling numbers for the JayDee/Pichtonia platform, which could reflect that this ticket has finally broken through to the wider region after a rocky start. For Kazaman/Comfed, these numbers are still not too bad, and roughly return to their initial numbers. For McEntire/UPC, it's hard to say that only 11% of the region viewing your platform favorably is anything but a massive disappointment.
The Debate
While it's not a majority, the winner of the night was clearly JayDee. The comments point to how that win came about: avoiding the McEntire & Kazaman pile-up. The comments say that JayDee was presidential, while also taking McEntire to task for their aggressive tactics, and failing to see Kazaman build enough of a case for himself under heavy fire. It's very possible that if JayDee/Pichtonia wins this debate will be the thing that put them over the top.
Field Satisfaction
First poll was 88.5% satisfied, then it was 100%, and now we're down to 80.8%. All three of these numbers are very high satisfaction, but only when there are four tickets, as opposed to three do we see universal satisfaction in the field. Something to think about.
The Horserace
Comparison to previous polls (No Unsure)
JayDee/Pichtonia: 19.2% -> 25.9% -> 57.7%
Gem/Sanjurika: 30.8% -> 14.8% - > N/A (Dropped out)
Kazaman/Comfed: 50% -> 48.1% -> 38.5%
McEntire/UPC: N/A -> 11.1% -> 3.8%
It's official: JayDee has taken over as the frontrunner on the eve of the election. He even wins outright in the first round, if this trend holds. Whether this is the new normal, or merely a temporary boost after a strong debate performance, it should mean we have a competitive race for first on our hands. For Kazaman, he's seen his numbers dip to a new low, but if his floor is roughly 40%, there's still a lot of potential for victory. For McEntire, this is rock bottom. With only one vote captured in this poll, the best they can hope to do is play spoiler and force a runoff. Speaking of runoffs...
Runoffs
With slightly less response to this part of the poll, it may be a little less reliable. However, we can see that a potential runoff between JayDee and Kazaman would be very competitive, and slightly favoring Kazaman. Meanwhile, any runoff where McEntire advances would be a blowout in the favor of their opponent. With these numbers in mind, and victory in the first round on the table, the JayDee/Pichtonia team should be trying their hardest to avoid a runoff, while the Kazaman/Comfed team probably feels more confident letting things play out. Should be an interesting dynamic!
And that's everything we have for you! Thanks for joining me on this journey throughout the campaign, it's been a wild ride. But it all means nothing if you don't vote, so see you all tomorrow at the ballot box! Until next time, this is Calvin Coolidge, waiting outside the polling place.
Platforms
- Bit meh, tbh, nothing really stood out.
- Their main weakness is FA, and it's a big weakness
- Well thought out and gives me a good think. Not wildly behind every bit and piece of it but a good solid choice
- The most bold platform (mcentire got co-op’d on this)
- Seemed very much on the defensive, understandably, but again, nothing stood out as impressive.
- It hinges on Kaz getting delegation and cheerleading right, but if he does then it should be good
- uwu I cawnt wait to vote fow mistah kazaman uwu
- Too many sly digs which overshadowed the platform.
- A much more interesting take on presenting themselves. It’s too easy to promise what people want, but their platform leans into the strengths of each end of the ticket and provides a more process-oriented approach as opposed to an ends-guided one.
- I expected more from McEntire, which is why im rating it neutral, but it’s a good platform
The Favorable Numbers (First Poll -> Second Poll -> This Poll)
JayDee/Pichtonia: 42.3% -> 44.4% -> 61.6%
Gem/Sanjurika: 77% -> 55.5% -> N/A (Dropped out)
Kazaman/Comfed: 54% -> 66.6% -> 50%
McEntire/UPC: N/A -> 25.9% -> 11.5%
After the last poll, we've been a significant drop in the favorable ratings of Kazaman and McEntire's platforms, while also seeing a significant boost for JayDee's. This is after two polls of middling numbers for the JayDee/Pichtonia platform, which could reflect that this ticket has finally broken through to the wider region after a rocky start. For Kazaman/Comfed, these numbers are still not too bad, and roughly return to their initial numbers. For McEntire/UPC, it's hard to say that only 11% of the region viewing your platform favorably is anything but a massive disappointment.
The Debate
- to keep with the one word theme: something.
- JayDee and Kazaman both did reasonably well (both had points where they shined and points where they faltered a bit) and then McEntire just seemed to take potshots at Kaz for personal grudges instead of making good points about why he’d be a good president
- Well put together, but the debate itself seemed a little....idk....lacking in substance.
- McEntire was a bit rabid and Kazaman was... asleep? JayDee seemed the only person who was both reasonable and present during the debate. Hands-down winner.
- JayDee easily won the debate. He had good first answers and responded well to rebuttals. Kaz seemed on a mission to say as little as possible aside from bland generic answers with no substances, and McEntire seemed on a mission to destroy what remains of his political capital and reputation by just vehemently going after
- Kaz at every opportunity.
- JayDee: enthusiastic first-timer candidate. Kazaman: competent old-hand candidate. McEntire: went negative the entire time, focusing too much on "Kazaman bad".
- McEntire felt overly aggressive at times, though that isn’t necessarily enough to make me not vote for them.
- Kazmam tied w/ JayDee as winners
- Haha
- “That’s a bold strategy cotton, let’s see how it plays out” - all of grand hall at McEntire
- Kazaman's answers were short, but in most cases sufficient. Lots of fluff from other candidates tbh, including JayDee (though his performance was also not bad)
I haven't read the whole debate yet but it struck me that while the MadJack Affair is McEntire's greatest political liability at present, he -immediately- went there. Is it an impulse control thing? Is it a misreading of the political situation? I respect that he acts on his convictions but to forsake tactfulness isn't very...presidential. - McEntire overstretched massively - probably ruined his own campaign trying to bring down Kaz. It's this short-sightedness and impulsiveness (that he also displayed in the TRR uproar) that makes him unfit to serve as President.
Field Satisfaction
First poll was 88.5% satisfied, then it was 100%, and now we're down to 80.8%. All three of these numbers are very high satisfaction, but only when there are four tickets, as opposed to three do we see universal satisfaction in the field. Something to think about.
The Horserace
- Nobody answered the pop punk question
- This may change, I haven't read the platforms yet!
- Will be interesting to see how the race develops with Gem/Sanj dropping out. My sense is that JayDee had the momentum building up and Gem dropping out will only add to that momentum. Kaz has been pretty light on detail and plans and the debate along with some harsher questioning about his role as DEIA is putting him on the defensive and probably harming his status as the experienced frontrunner.
- Getting intense now
- Looking fin
- I wish Sanju could have been moved to the top of the ticket and have a new VP instead of the Gem/Sanju campaign being aborted altogether. They put a lot of effort into it!
JayDee/Pichtonia: 19.2% -> 25.9% -> 57.7%
Gem/Sanjurika: 30.8% -> 14.8% - > N/A (Dropped out)
Kazaman/Comfed: 50% -> 48.1% -> 38.5%
McEntire/UPC: N/A -> 11.1% -> 3.8%
It's official: JayDee has taken over as the frontrunner on the eve of the election. He even wins outright in the first round, if this trend holds. Whether this is the new normal, or merely a temporary boost after a strong debate performance, it should mean we have a competitive race for first on our hands. For Kazaman, he's seen his numbers dip to a new low, but if his floor is roughly 40%, there's still a lot of potential for victory. For McEntire, this is rock bottom. With only one vote captured in this poll, the best they can hope to do is play spoiler and force a runoff. Speaking of runoffs...
Runoffs
With slightly less response to this part of the poll, it may be a little less reliable. However, we can see that a potential runoff between JayDee and Kazaman would be very competitive, and slightly favoring Kazaman. Meanwhile, any runoff where McEntire advances would be a blowout in the favor of their opponent. With these numbers in mind, and victory in the first round on the table, the JayDee/Pichtonia team should be trying their hardest to avoid a runoff, while the Kazaman/Comfed team probably feels more confident letting things play out. Should be an interesting dynamic!
And that's everything we have for you! Thanks for joining me on this journey throughout the campaign, it's been a wild ride. But it all means nothing if you don't vote, so see you all tomorrow at the ballot box! Until next time, this is Calvin Coolidge, waiting outside the polling place.
