ISSUE 7: May '24 Presidential Election Pre-Poll Results

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ISSUE 7

May '24 Presidential Election Pre-Poll Results

analysis by @Sincluda, graphics by @Gem, poll by both

Over the past two days, 24 Europeians answered a poll about Europeia's upcoming presidential election. They were asked questions about UPC's presidency, his ticket for re-election, what they were looking for this cycle, and who they would like to see run. These are the results:

How satisfied are you with UPC's performance as president?
Very Satisfied - 33.3%
Satisfied - 33.3%
Neutral - 16.7%
Dissatisfied - 12.5%
Very Dissatisfied - 0%
Don't Know - 4.2%
Forms response chart. Question title: How satisfied are you with UPC's performance as president?. Number of responses: 24 responses.

How satisfied are you with Grea Kriopia's performance in Cabinet?
Very Satisfied - 54.2%
Satisfied - 37.5%
Neutral - 8.3%
Dissatisfied - 0%
Very Dissatisfied - 0%
Don't Know - 0%
Forms response chart. Question title: How satisfied are you with Grea Kriopia's performance in Cabinet?. Number of responses: 24 responses.

As of right now, how are you planning to vote on election day (May 24)?
Definite for UPC/GK - 25%
Lean for UPC/GK - 25%
Undecided - 37.5%
Lean against UPC/GK - 8.3%
Definite against UPC/GK - 4.2%
Forms response chart. Question title: As of right now, how are you planning to vote on election day (May 24)?. Number of responses: 24 responses.

As of right now, which option would you consider yourself most likely to vote for?
UPC/Grea Kriopia - 60.9%
Another Ticket - 39.1%
Forms response chart. Question title: As of right now, which option would you consider yourself most likely to vote for?. Number of responses: 23 responses.

If the election were held today, which option would you most likely vote for?
UPC/Grea Kriopia - 87.5%
Re-Open Elections 12.5%
Forms response chart. Question title: If the election were held today, which option would you most likely vote for?. Number of responses: 24 responses.

As of right now, how satisfied with/excited for the UPC/GK ticket are you?
Very excited/satisfied - 25%
Somewhat excited/satisfied - 33.3%
Neutral - 4.2%
Somewhat disappointed - 12.5%
Very disappointed - 0%
Undecided (I need to see a platform first) - 25%
Undecided (other reasons) - 0%
Forms response chart. Question title: As of right now, how satisfied with/excited for the UPC/GK ticket are you?. Number of responses: 24 responses.

Any comments on the UPC/GK ticket?
good people
I hope were able to get a strong competitive ticket, but I think upc has earned a second term.

The UPC/GK ticket enjoys some heavy support early on this cycle, most of all in their work this past term. UPC gets a nod of approval from 2/3 of poll-takers, and none expressed extreme displeasure at his term so far. These are good numbers to back up a re-election bid, and challengers will have their work cut out for them--there's only so much to criticize about this incumbent. There seems to be even less to criticize for the bottom half of this ticket, Grea Kriopia. The Minister of Culture continues their streak of avoiding any dissatisfied responses on a satisfaction poll. This satisfaction tracks with the high level of satisfaction/excitement for the ticket, though it is understandably limited by the fact that there's no platform out yet.

With standing not even open yet (though it legally can be now!), and no platform posted, the UPC/GK ticket already holds a strong base of support. Half of poll takers already indicated their preference toward the ticket, as opposed to 1/8 leaning against. A faceless "other ticket" has a theoretical yet disadvantaged shot at challenging UPC/GK, with 39.1% of poll takers backing it. This "other ticket" better get its but in gear, though--voters won't be choosing ROE this time around.

For this election, rank the issues most important to you from 1 (most important) to 6* (least important)
Forms response chart. Question title: For this election, rank the issues most important to you from 1 (most important) to 7 (least important). Number of responses: .

Are there any issues not listed above that are important to you this election?
transparency and visibility to the public
I was disappointed to find that all the foreign affairs matters were condensed into one section as if they were all the same.

Rank what influences your vote for a candidate from 1 (most important) to 5 (least important)
Forms response chart. Question title: Rank what influences your vote for a candidate from 1 (most important) to 5 (least important). Number of responses: .

How many tickets would you like to see this election?
1 - 0%
2 - 66.7%
3 - 62.5%
4+ - 29.2%
Forms response chart. Question title: How many tickets would you like to see this election?. Number of responses: 24 responses.

People may not support ROE, but they do support a competitive election. Not a single poll-taker wanted a single ticket race, and most would prefer to see 2-3 competitors. Despite the high level of support for UPC/GK, prospective candidates should not be discouraged--there is hunger for competition.

And what should prospective candidates look at when building their campaigns in order to appeal to voters? Candidates should be looking to pitch their activity and experience (something difficult to challenge an incumbent president on!), but most importantly do so with a strong platform. When it comes to issues to incorporate in these platforms, FA and activity are the two dominant issues for yet another election, while Culture and new leadership lag behind the others.

Although this early polling suggests a smooth reelection for UPC, can anyone challenge him and satisfy the demand for a competitive contest? As standing begins to open, which candidates enjoy the strongest early bases of support?


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