First Minister Election Flash Poll
Results and Analysis
Written by Maowi
Following a series of key events in this final first minister race, including first and second minister debates and the withdrawal of Peeps and Forilian's ticket, the Europeian Broadcasting Corporation conducted a slightly-under-24 hour flash poll. The poll garnered a relatively high response count of 31. Going in, the Arnhelm Review and the Europeian Research Institute's joint vote share prediction project, Chasing Gold IV, gave the Xecrio/Ervald ticket a slight lead over McEntire/Monkey, predicting their first-round victory with 54.49 percent of the vote. Our respondents did not wholly reflect this prediction; when asked how they were intending to vote prior to the debates taking place, McEntire had a slight edge over Xecrio, with Peeps and Re-Open Elections taking up 12.9 percent of the total share combined. Unless Peeps' voters would have skewed disproportionally towards Xecrio, this poll's respondents leaned further towards McEntire than previous polling suggested.
Who won the first minister debate?
Responses to this question are extremely encouraging for the McEntire/Monkey campaign, with over half of respondents believing that McEntire secured the win. Xecrio's performance failed to shore up much support; the two respondents claiming that he won were already intending to vote for him, while six of the sixteen who picked McEntire had been intending to vote for Xecrio. Any losses as a result of this debate performance may be highly costly for Xecrio and Ervald.
Who won the second minister debate?
The outcome for the second minister debate was far less decisive between the two remaining campaigns, although only 6.4 percent of respondents chose Forilian or nobody as the victor. Monkey just edged out Ervald, although the result is far from catastrophic for either - those previously intending to vote for one ticket acknowledged the other's victory in this debate in roughly equal numbers.
Which ticket(s) are you considering voting for?
These results show McEntire gaining ground on Xecrio; 74.2 percent of respondents are considering voting for the former, compared to 54.8 percent for the latter. While this shows that Xecrio does indeed have a potential base of voters out there to secure him the victory, he will have to do a lot more work in the short time remaining before the election to divert them from McEntire, whose main priority now simply needs to be damage limitation. If these poll results were absolute, Xecrio would need to convince sixteen of the seventeen who are considering his ticket to vote for him.
If the election were today, how would you vote?
Once again, respondents favour McEntire in this question. With only one vote to re-open elections, he receives 61.3 percent of the vote share to Xecrio's 35.5 percent. His support comes overwhelmingly from the older demographic, mirroring the pattern seen in the candidates' publicly received endorsements. Nine out of ten respondents whose time in Europeia spans five years or more selected McEntire for this question; by contrast, the other age ranges are very equally split, with those in the two- to five-year range even leaning more towards Xecrio with a four to two split. McEntire has evidently been able to very firmly garner the support of those whose experience in the region is comparable to his, whether due to their greater familiarity with his past accomplishments or to the nature of his platform and campaign. Either way, he has built up a formidable base which Xecrio will need to work hard to surpass.
Very, very, very close between the two remaining tickets.
Ervald crushed the SM debate and I think he'll be a fantastic SM and MwM based on this performance.
We need to fix dispatches more than anything this term and mcentire’s campaign seems to have focused on that and so they get my vote.
Definitely was a close race between Xecrio and McEntire, but the first minister debate definitely pushed me towards McEntire. Xecrio received pushback for his stance on how successful dispatches were, but his doubling-down on this (questionable) success in the First Debate Panel analysis thread (by HEM, Calvin, Sopo) made me go from a lean to a full tumble into the McEntire camp.
Nate ran a good campaign but he's just not ready for primetime.
Can't say I'm too thrilled about any of the candidates. I intended to remain neutral and decide who to vote for when polls opened, but Nate picking Peeps as Attorney General brought me off the fence. It's not a good choice. Peeps could easily be the next Lloenflys and be AG in the future but right now he has not shown he has the levelheadedness that an Attorney General needs. Both tickets have a lot of flaws. Nate's term as MinComm left A LOT to be desired. It doesn't instill much confidence that he has the capacity to properly manage a staff. Ervald has not been particularly involved in ministerial or council affairs for some time and the last time he was in an executive position he resigned. McEntire has a history of evaporating sometimes that concerns me but he has been active over the past term or two and that gives me a bit more confidence. Monkey is a wildcard to me. I wouldn't be too sad if either candidate won but if Nate wins I really hope he considers tapping someone else for Attorney General. Lastly and not entirely related to the election but you have got to feel some sympathy for Sopo after witnessing what's happening now with one of the [former] candidates saying they'll resign from their council position if they win and then dropping out and turning around with one day left in the game to run for senate. I hope the people that were hard on sopo for doing that will give the same magnifying glass to them.
I don't think that I've ever been so conflicted about which candidate to vote for as I am now. I'm currently leaning McEntire, but it I'm still not sure...
Ervald crushed the SM debate and I think he'll be a fantastic SM and MwM based on this performance.
We need to fix dispatches more than anything this term and mcentire’s campaign seems to have focused on that and so they get my vote.
Definitely was a close race between Xecrio and McEntire, but the first minister debate definitely pushed me towards McEntire. Xecrio received pushback for his stance on how successful dispatches were, but his doubling-down on this (questionable) success in the First Debate Panel analysis thread (by HEM, Calvin, Sopo) made me go from a lean to a full tumble into the McEntire camp.
Nate ran a good campaign but he's just not ready for primetime.
Can't say I'm too thrilled about any of the candidates. I intended to remain neutral and decide who to vote for when polls opened, but Nate picking Peeps as Attorney General brought me off the fence. It's not a good choice. Peeps could easily be the next Lloenflys and be AG in the future but right now he has not shown he has the levelheadedness that an Attorney General needs. Both tickets have a lot of flaws. Nate's term as MinComm left A LOT to be desired. It doesn't instill much confidence that he has the capacity to properly manage a staff. Ervald has not been particularly involved in ministerial or council affairs for some time and the last time he was in an executive position he resigned. McEntire has a history of evaporating sometimes that concerns me but he has been active over the past term or two and that gives me a bit more confidence. Monkey is a wildcard to me. I wouldn't be too sad if either candidate won but if Nate wins I really hope he considers tapping someone else for Attorney General. Lastly and not entirely related to the election but you have got to feel some sympathy for Sopo after witnessing what's happening now with one of the [former] candidates saying they'll resign from their council position if they win and then dropping out and turning around with one day left in the game to run for senate. I hope the people that were hard on sopo for doing that will give the same magnifying glass to them.
I don't think that I've ever been so conflicted about which candidate to vote for as I am now. I'm currently leaning McEntire, but it I'm still not sure...
