GraVandius
Retired Troll
- Pronouns
- His Majesty
How Long Does It Take To Become President?
and is it taking longer?
This most recent Presidential Election saw all three candidates being members who had joined within a few months of each other in 2015. In the end of course Deepest House won. He did so after spending 1,180 days in the region from his join date. This places him at the 6th longest time-to-presidency of the 36 people whom have served as President of the Region.
As seen on the graph above CSP is the fastest to the Presidency (with 71 Days) and Aex is the longest to the Presidency (with 2498 days). Both of these titles come with an asterisk however. CSP stepped up to the Presidency via the Vice-Presidency while Aex had a undeserved kerfluffle with the law that prompted a few years leave of absence.
With these outliers in the average (mean) time to the Presidency is 628 days, which is about 1 year 7 months.
If you remove Aex, and those who reach the Presidency for the first time via the vice presidency (CSP, Earth 22 and Darcness) the average (mean) time to the Presidency drops down about two weeks to 609 days.
Moving on to the second part of today's study, above is a scatter plot of days to the Presidency over the dates they were elected or ascended. There does not appear to be a clear trend line within this data. There are a lot of people clumped at the bottom prior to 2010 simply due to the factors that the forum had not been around for that long before that. However, Starting with now banned former President Anumia in September 2010 Time to the Presidency significantly increased as seen in the table bellow.
Before September 2010 (With Outlier) | 251 |
After September 2010 (Without Outliers) | 256 |
Before September 2010 (Without Outliers) | 850 |
After September 2010 (With Outliers) | 898 |
To check if the average time to Presidency has been rising since then, just in case my eyes lied to me when looking at the scatter plot, I split the Presidents after September 2010 in half along the line of Kraken's first term in May 2014. Of note, note no one ascended to the Presidency for the first time visa the vice presidency from 2011 to 2014 so there is not a without outlier line for that period.
Before May 2014 (With Outlier) | 877 |
After May 2014 (With Outlier) | 916 |
After May 2014 (Without Outlier) | 819 |
As you can see in the table even with Aex's massive amount of time to presidency the averages are still fairly close. Once you take Aex out however the average time to presidency actually has been lower from 2014 to now compared to from 2010-2014.
This admittedly is the opposite conclusion that I had anticipated when I started the study. I figured that the frequent repeat Presidents over the past few years would have significantly driven up the time to presidency of newer members. It is possible however that the effects of that have not yet set into the averages here. It would make sense logically that as time goes on and thus the pool of potential repeat Presidents increases the average will begin to tick up considerably for now however it seems to be that this has not yet become a problem.
That is it for this weeks study from the ERI. What are your thoughts? Additionally if anyone has any suggestions of what I should look at next feel free to drop them bellow or into my dms as I don't yet have any plans for next week!
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