How Long Does it Take to Become First Minister?

GraVandius

Retired Troll
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His Majesty
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How Long Does It Take To Become First Minister?

This is an article that has been on my mind for awhile but I was going to wait an additional year from about now to put it out as there would hopefully be a lot more data, in the form of new First Ministers and Chief of States. Given though the Senate seems to be intent on re-unifying the executive back to the Presidency, I figured I mine as well just put it out now. Additionally, this will serve as a general update to a previous ERI article: How Long Does It Take To Become President? which if you haven't read, I would of course recommend.

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Above is a chart of the time from a Europeian's join date to when they first ascended to high executive office, whether that be President or First Minister/Cheif of State. In the two years since the previous article, we've had nine new heads of state, representing 20% of the total.

Overall the pure average (mean) time to Executive Leadership is 720 days, which come up to about 1 year 11 months.

The longest and shortest still remain the same as before, Aex and CSP respectively. In addition to them, there have been two new people who qualify as outliers over the new period, Rand and our present First Minister DAX. Like Aex, Rand had a two year extended absence from the region from 2013 to 2015 before returning to fairly regular involvement. Dax and Drexlore, like Darcness and CSP before her, ascended to high executive office for the first time via the Second Minister role, rather than being directly elected.

When you take out those outliers, the average time drops down to 665 days, which is about 1 year 9 months.

It's worth nothing that both of those averages are a bit higher than they were in the previous article.
Type2018Today
With Outliers628720
Without Outliers609665

It's worth noting that the likely explanation for this is quantifying it as the lag that finally is coming in due to the near endless Presidencies of Writinglegend starting in late 2015. When looking at most of the individuals who are raising the average, Ervald, Kuramia, Rand and Pichtonia all had join dates at or around that period. Rand in fact lost to WL directly in an election 2017 before being elected First Minister last year.

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The graph above shows the time to Executive Leadership versus the date of election/ascension. The red points are those that occurred after the executive split and the triangular points are those identified as outliers earlier in this article. As you can see the trend line, which is the cubic function recommended by google sheets, shows a slight downturn in the average after it had been rising for years. When breaking the averages down into their respective eras, Pre-Modern (2007 to 2010), Modern (2011-2019) and the Executive Split (2019-Present) it shows a similar story.

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The pure average of the Executive Split era is about 5 months shorter (151 days) than the Modern Presidential Average. Without outliers it is an even starker difference, at about 1 year 2 month difference between the two. This would at-least suggest that the data itself backs up the general perception that the Executive Split allowed more new people to have a credible shot at reaching high executive leadership. It is however a very limited data set and as I stated at the top I would definetly have preferred to have a lot more data available before even attempting to draw a conclusion.

Regardless, I hope this is an interesting update for your visual consumption. I did this in part because I plan to use the data for another article I'm working on as well as soon as I get some interviews done! Stay tuned!
 
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Really well written article GraV. Obviously it takes 24 hours, or however long the poll is open.
 
I will once again raise the point of contention that my join date is almost a full year before I made even one post on the forum, so it's really a unfair marker, and I know I'm not the only one with join date incongruence, but I understand why it is used. But your Presidential version of this article is the article I was referencing on radio about people being displaced due to WL's Presidential dominance, so glad to see it back in the conversation now.
 
Interesting article! Technically I am part of the group described by Calvin, too. I joined and then left for a month. Not that it would greatly skew results.
 
Aex is probably the more egregious outlier here -- perhaps determining his "join date" based on his return instead of his original date would be a better marker?
 
Aex is probably the more egregious outlier here -- perhaps determining his "join date" based on his return instead of his original date would be a better marker?
I think first citizenship application, or like most “recent” citizenship application is probably a better metric in term of actual time to Presidency. That is a lot harder to find than join date however and some might not exist anymore in terms of the older members. When I run out of ideas for research projects i’ll try to come back and collect that data to see how much of a difference it makes in these dates.
 
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