Flashin' Poll: Feb '22

Common-Sense Politics

Acta Non Verba
Honoured Citizen
Citizen

ARNHELM -- Following up on the results from the latest edition of Smokin' Poll, 29 Europeians were polled this week on their preferences in regard to the upcoming presidential election. These are the results. Relevant changes from the aforementioned Smokin' Poll are shown in parentheses.

How long have you been active in Europeia?

5+ years - 27.6% (+2.6%)
Less than 6 months - 24.1% (+2.7)
2 to 5 years - 24.1% (-0.9)
1 to 2 years - 17.2% (+6.5)
6 months to 1 year - 6.9% (-11)


If Europeia becomes a Frontier region, I will feel...

Very satisfied - 37.9%
Somewhat satisfied - 13.8%
Unsure - 17.2%
Somewhat unsatisfied - 10.3%
Very unsatisfied - 20.7%


If Europeia becomes a Stronghold region, I will feel...

Very satisfied - 27.6%
Somewhat satisfied - 10.3%
Unsure - 20.7%
Somewhat unsatisfied - 20.7%
Very unsatisfied - 20.7%


We wanted to ask the Frontier versus Stronghold question in a different, slightly more nuanced way to see if it tells us anything more about how Europeians are weighing this decision. Frontier wins out in both total satisfaction (51.7-37.9) and total dissatisfaction (31-41.4). This does indeed paint a different picture than the straight up either-or (with leaning options) we've been relying on to take the region's temperature. As a reminder, last week's Smokin' Poll gave Frontier a slight but significant 53.6-46.4 edge.

Recent polling suggests 50% of Europeians do not believe the government is doing enough to prepare for the Frontier Stronghold update. Which executive department(s), in your view, must act with the highest level of urgency?



Again, we're looking to dig deeper here. It's one thing to say we're not doing enough but what do we, as a community see as needing to be done. Our results here begin to flesh that out but there is more to learn. It is our hope that any major presidential campaign will dive headlong into addressing perceived shortcomings, particularly in the areas of Integration, Foreign Affairs, the Navy, and Communications.

What are you most looking for when evaluating presidential candidates in the upcoming election?

- An F/S position that aligns with me, a quality platform, & a demonstrated record of recent activity.

- Activity tbh

- Good platform that also reflects the candidates strengths and character

- Someone who shares the vision I do. Not sure if I care how well that comes across in their platform though that may have implications for future transparency.

- Pro-Stronghold Views

- Competency

- I'm looking for someone who will take the update seriously and mobilize our resources to prepare for it. Europeia has had President Lime and President Darcness and both have been found wanting in this regard, granted for different reasons.

- Strong and diversified platform with a plan for each of our ministries.

- a good F/S plan

- Character.

- Someone who does not have F/S as their highest selling point. At this time I'm looking for someone with more depth besides one issue. I would like a candidate to that their position of F/S as a footnote. There are so many more things to discuss.

- Positions on F/S

- Someone who can whip their Cabinet into getting everything done.

- A plan, any plan.

- Clear plan for the future

- Surprisingly not a strong answer to F/S, but more how they plan to tackle the seeming inactivity issue with Interior and solving the disconnect between the forum/Discord communities and the RMB community (like promoting the forums and that sort of thing).

- A realistic plan. Darcness got through the last election as the Goldilocks candidate, appealing enough to both F/S factions to get by with support from both. Next time we need someone with a clearly communicated point of view, a leader for the update. The last two terms have been fumbled, we can't afford another.

A full third of responses indicate that F/S will play a key factor in how they choose to vote. Some may be weary of this debate, to be sure, but candidates who want to put it aside may suffer for it. What the update means for Europeia remains an open question, as does the manner in which we will prepare for it. It's the responsibility of anyone who wants to lead our community to present a strong and clear vision on this issue.

If the election were held today, who would you be more likely to vote for?



Woah, Nelly. Istillian registers with a double digit lead against all his fellow frontrunner candidates. Perhaps most notably, he covers Pichto by nearly 14 points. With universal popularity and no real liabilities to speak of, it might be time for a return to the top job. High expectations and politicians rarely make for good bedfellows but, for now, Istillian is the man to beat in the race to be Europeia's next President.​




The numbers against Istillian aside, Pichto finds himself in a very strong position should he be pondering a run. Beating Calvin and Prim by more than 20 points and Gleg by more than 10 is nothing to sneeze at. In fact, it's pretty remarkable. Very few figures in the region could hope to pull something like that off but it's really not surprising that Pichto is one of them.



Much as we might try to muddy the waters with some hypothetical strong third candidates, the scene remains mostly clear. Edge Istillian, and not a small edge. It does appear that Gleg's entrance into the race hurts Ist the most while Calvin could open the door for a first round sweep, dashing Pichto's hopes. We're not trying to ignore Prim in this commentary. We just find a bid from that quarter highly unlikely. given their position as WAD.​



Then there's Darc. We can't dismiss a sitting President, certainly not one with approval ratings above water. That said, our last couple polls have not treated him well. Folks may content theirselves with how things are going but presented with viable options, Darc finds himself at the bottom of a very big hill to climb. He loses big 1-on-1 with all our frontrunners. He loses big in the first round against heavyweight candidates in our 3-way matchups. He doesn't come out on top against any second tier candidates either, as you'll see below. The decision whether or not to run again may be made for him based on these results.​




Here we take a look at what could happen without both Istillian and Pichto in the race. Some interesting possibilities that are fun to think about.​





Again, we're not disrespecting Prim here. Prim would be a strong candidate based both on his record and these numbers. He happens to be an active and successful Delegate and hasn't appeared to be interested in running for higher office lately. Not including him is a risk to take but we're taking it. If we're gearing up for an Istillian vs. Pichto matchup, it should be a humdinger. Gleg has the chops to play spoiler. Calvin is Calvin. Darcness has defied expectations before.



There are a lot of intriguing options for the bottom of the ticket, certainly more than five but this is the game we're playing. Lloen isn't riding as high as he was two months ago. His tenure as MoFA hasn't ruffled a lot of feathers but it also hasn't wow'ed anyone. He remains a wildly popular figure and accomplished politician. Having been on the inside makes him a very strong choice. SkyGreen has also come back down to Earth a bit over the balance of the term however remains a power player and not one without ambition. CSP's numbers are on the rise and he is active both onsite and off. He is the newly elected party leader of the pro-Frontier Forward Europeia party who comes with some liabilities and a high ceiling. Monkey doesn't usually poll well but deserves his spot here. Finally, the rising star model best fits Sanju this time around, in our estimation.
 
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SkyGreen

♅Emperor of Europeia⛢
Deputy Minister
Citizen
A lot of interesting information, I especially like how the Frontier/Stronghold question was asked.
 

Pichtonia

Fruit Society member
Forum Administrator
Honoured Citizen
Citizen
Very interesting results, I'm honoured.

I agree that the new measurement of F/S is a very good idea. Thank you for the polling, CSP.
 

Prim

Senate Speaker
Senator
Citizen
Very interesting results, I'm honoured.

I agree that the new measurement of F/S is a very good idea. Thank you for the polling, CSP.
Yeah, it reminds me of our new Senate election mechanism, approval voting, "are you okay if this option wins" -- the least objectionable outcome. Seems like that's weighing more favorably toward Frontier. I know that I personally put that I would be somewhat satisfied with both options, if that helps explain.
 

Sanjurika

Koala Fanatic
Cabinet
Deputy Minister
Citizen
didn’t expect to be in the power rankings! very interesting results for the president election
 
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