Flash Poll: Lloen Holds Slight Advantage in Tight Election, Runoff Possible

[McEntire]

Lloenflys/HEM Ticket Holds Slight Advantage in Tight Election; Runoff Possible​

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Written by: McEntire
Polling by: Istillian
Edited by: Darcness​

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The following poll drew 31 respondents, and was conducted from September 13-14. The poll and analysis are a product of the Elect Your Executive Sub-committee (EYES), a project of the Organization for Independent Media.

Lloenflys/HEM holds a slight lead, race tied without undecideds, electorate open to a last-minute entrant.

In a snapshot of what has been a chaotic Presidential race, just three days out, it is somewhere between a tie and an advantage for Lloenflys/HEM, the newest ticket to the race. In the horserace, Lloenflys/HEM leads with 45.2 percent, close to the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff. The Lime/Skygreen24 ticket follows with 35.5 percent, followed by the Hell's Soldier/Gaudosia ticket with 9.7 percent the same as the 9.7 percent of voters declaring themselves undecided.

When those undecided voters are asked to choose a candidate, however, all of them broke for the Lime/SkyGreen24 ticket, leaving the leading tickets tied at 45.2 percent apiece. This could signal that Lime/SkyGreen24 have more room to grow in the closing stretch. While it appears from this poll that Hell's Soldier and Gaudosia are a long-shot, these two promising new players could have an outsized impact on this race by denying either ticket a majority and forcing the election to a runoff.

With that said, the electorate is open to another ticket altogether. Fully 61.3 percent of voters - more than any of the tickets individually receive - said that they would consider supporting a candidate who enters the race in the final 48 hours, a number which is sure to draw the attention of any potential last-minute candidates. Despite being open to an additional candidate, though, 77.4 percent of voters are satisfied with their current choices. And Europeians are optimistic, with 80.6 percent describing the region as "headed in the right direction," despite hand-wringing about declining activity and regional population.

Frontier/Stronghold update is the issue of the election, voters favor Stronghold but split on the idea of provinces.

Spoiler: What issues are priority to you when considering your vote?

Frontier/Stronghold
Frontier/Stronghold, recruitment

Currently the Frontier/Stronghold issues, recruitment management going forward, and reviewing relationships with our allies in the FA/ERN sphere
Frontier/Stronghold transition, Foreign Affairs strategy, Communications reform
Both personal and also actual believe in the Plattform

Frontier/Stronghold, Recruitment/Integration, ERN

Experience (primarily in the executive branch)

the update

The future of Europeia in general in regards to each campaign's vision.
If the promises of the candidates are kept after elected.

Finding ways to get activity boosted.

Platform, career history, personality

WA Affairs, specifically plans for WALL, plans to address the upcoming Frontier/Stronghold update, and FA more generally, Integration by the new wave of Drew players

FA specifically knowing that S/F can be handled and someone understands the workload involved and how many people should be handling it.

When asked what issues were top of mind, nearly every single respondent who mentioned a specific policy issue mentioned the looming Frontier/Stronghold update. All but one respondent said that they had heard of the Frontier/Stronghold update. Recruitment, integration, and activity were also mentioned several times as concerns.

In terms of the policy choices, the voters seem to agree with the two leading tickets that Europeia should become a Stronghold when the update is implemented. 73.3 percent of voters who had heard of the update favor Stronghold, while 26.7 percent favor a Frontier.

Should Europeia follow through on choosing Stronghold, and create "province" regions, voters narrowly think that these provinces should serve simply as a funnel directly to Europeia, versus being a community of its own overseen by Europeia, by a 48.4 percent to 41.9 percent margin. 9.6 percent gave some other answer. It is important to note that this question is not reflective of the specific plan put out by any candidate, but rather refers to an ongoing regional debate about such province regions, including the wrangling around West Europeia.

Spoiler: Any other comments on the Frontier/Stronghold update?

Since lots of the platforms are built around it, it would be interesting if it were not implemented this term.

If Europeia does not take full advantage of this, but other regions do and see success, then we will fall very far behind.

I hate it and I hope it never see's the light of day on the NS website.

Creating frontier provinces involves too much political and military risk. It's just better to turn Europeia into a frontier.

Not that I can think of.

No.

Not really, but that there will still need to be an effort made by the Government to recruit.

Lloenflys/HEM may have the early advantage in a potential runoff, but it's anyone's game.

In a potential head-to-head that could result from a runoff, the Lloenflys/HEM ticket holds a substantial but not commanding 54.6 to 45.2 percent lead over Lime/Skygreen24. In this poll, every respondent who favored Hell's Soldier/Gaudosia went on to favor Lloenflys/HEM in a head-to-head scenario.

At this point, Lloenflys and HEM's runoff lead makes then slight favorites to take the Goldenblock. But any outcome - from an outright Lloenflys victory with no runoff to an outright Lime victory with no runoff to an entirely different candidate jumping into the race - is within the realm of possibility in this point. With 3 day left, the race remains scrambled from Calvin's exit, and anything can happen in what is most likely to be one of the most hard fought Presidential races of the last several terms.

 

[sanjurika]

Interesting results! This election is shaping to be an interesting one!