Watch out Jorts Report, there's a new team on the block! Today, Siph and I discussed the First Minister election, including the political implications of Cabinet picks, the Second Minister debate and the newly released EBC poll.
Lime: Based on the two extremes we’ve seen in the polling; I think it's probably going to be a very tight election.
Siph: Yep! There is a lot of "leans" I feel, from judging the waters in the debates. And it also seems that a lot of contention was Peeps for AG-- now it's Lloen again, could make it even tighter
Lime: Yeah definitely. Updating their section on dispatches was also smart. As was replacing Peeps, as cruel as that sounds!
Siph: Peeps was an interesting pick but definitely not for AG, should've been a justice first. And yes, a dispatches update could make it closer.
Lime: I think this shows why people don't release their Cabinet picks before being elected. It's just a liability and a risk that people won't vote for you, but if everyone else released their picks you kind of have no choice
Siph: McEntire doing so was a bold move, and forced the rest to do it, definitely raised the stakes and made Cabinet picks part of the contest. Perhaps aimed at Nate/Ervald? With Ervald being MWP and all.
Lime: Yeah, I think so. According to my poll, he needed to take some risks, but I think it was pretty much agreed he won the debate, so I'm still surprised he took that big a risk in releasing his picks. I expected Peeps to, but not him.
Siph: Speaking of the debate. Who do you think won the Second Minister debate? The EBC poll provided some interesting results.
Lime: Yeah, I was very surprised at that
Siph: I was really really surprised. Ervald held his own through multiple questions, I thought when Fori was digging his hole, he was building up Ervald too.
Lime: Yeah definitely. The only thing I can think is maybe people are thinking comparatively or based on expectations? Maybe people though Monkey did a lot better than they expected. Or they thought Ervald would destroy the other two, and instead he was very restrained?
Siph: That's true, I don’t think they expected a lot out of Monkey, and even though Ervald has no debate experience, I noticed there appears to be a mandela effect where multiple people thought he did. As such they over-critically analysed his responses and any small slip ups they saw as larger than ones from monkey
Lime: Yeah maybe. I mean Forilian was the only one to have a very poor performance. Yes, Monkey made mistakes, like asking questions that just allowed the others to talk about their experience and he didn't hit Ervald at all. However, his answers were good enough and he did hit Forilian well at the end.
Siph: Yeah, so I think it's an interesting one, objectively Ervald performed the best but based on expectations etc, more people were impressed by Monkey so that was probably at the forefront of their mind.
Lime: Yeah. Also, if most respondents are planning to vote for McEntire/Monkey they're likely going to think more critically about Ervald's performance and more positively about Monkey's.
Siph: That's true, very true!
Lime: I wonder how accurate the EBC poll is because my poll gave the opposite results although I did have 10 fewer respondents. Plus, with a strong GOTV campaign and changing some of those swing voters minds, Nate could still narrow that gap and win.
Siph: It is very dependent on how much Nate/Ervald do.
Lime: Definitely. If they're very proactive tomorrow, they likely have a chance. If not, McEntire probably wins this easily.
Siph: Yep. It's also interesting because we could get quite a few more voters than poll respondents
Lime: Yeah there's at least another 10 votes I reckon. A high turnout could even find another 15 maybe.
Siph: I've seen up to 50 too. There's been a lot of activity about this election, could be even 20+.
Lime: That would be amazing
Siph: I know right! Still a lot of uncertainty
Lime: Definitely. Based on the demographic support it looks like Nate might be in the better position to win the votes of those who didn't take the poll. Polls tend to be over-representative of older members who are strongly backing McEntire. Those who don't take polls tend to be newer and they seem to be leaning towards Nate
Siph: 100%, the large section of 5 years+ definitely stood out to me.
Lime: Makes tomorrow more exciting!
Siph: I completely agree!
Lime: Based on the two extremes we’ve seen in the polling; I think it's probably going to be a very tight election.
Siph: Yep! There is a lot of "leans" I feel, from judging the waters in the debates. And it also seems that a lot of contention was Peeps for AG-- now it's Lloen again, could make it even tighter
Lime: Yeah definitely. Updating their section on dispatches was also smart. As was replacing Peeps, as cruel as that sounds!
Siph: Peeps was an interesting pick but definitely not for AG, should've been a justice first. And yes, a dispatches update could make it closer.
Lime: I think this shows why people don't release their Cabinet picks before being elected. It's just a liability and a risk that people won't vote for you, but if everyone else released their picks you kind of have no choice
Siph: McEntire doing so was a bold move, and forced the rest to do it, definitely raised the stakes and made Cabinet picks part of the contest. Perhaps aimed at Nate/Ervald? With Ervald being MWP and all.
Lime: Yeah, I think so. According to my poll, he needed to take some risks, but I think it was pretty much agreed he won the debate, so I'm still surprised he took that big a risk in releasing his picks. I expected Peeps to, but not him.
Siph: Speaking of the debate. Who do you think won the Second Minister debate? The EBC poll provided some interesting results.
Lime: Yeah, I was very surprised at that
Siph: I was really really surprised. Ervald held his own through multiple questions, I thought when Fori was digging his hole, he was building up Ervald too.
Lime: Yeah definitely. The only thing I can think is maybe people are thinking comparatively or based on expectations? Maybe people though Monkey did a lot better than they expected. Or they thought Ervald would destroy the other two, and instead he was very restrained?
Siph: That's true, I don’t think they expected a lot out of Monkey, and even though Ervald has no debate experience, I noticed there appears to be a mandela effect where multiple people thought he did. As such they over-critically analysed his responses and any small slip ups they saw as larger than ones from monkey
Lime: Yeah maybe. I mean Forilian was the only one to have a very poor performance. Yes, Monkey made mistakes, like asking questions that just allowed the others to talk about their experience and he didn't hit Ervald at all. However, his answers were good enough and he did hit Forilian well at the end.
Siph: Yeah, so I think it's an interesting one, objectively Ervald performed the best but based on expectations etc, more people were impressed by Monkey so that was probably at the forefront of their mind.
Lime: Yeah. Also, if most respondents are planning to vote for McEntire/Monkey they're likely going to think more critically about Ervald's performance and more positively about Monkey's.
Siph: That's true, very true!
Lime: I wonder how accurate the EBC poll is because my poll gave the opposite results although I did have 10 fewer respondents. Plus, with a strong GOTV campaign and changing some of those swing voters minds, Nate could still narrow that gap and win.
Siph: It is very dependent on how much Nate/Ervald do.
Lime: Definitely. If they're very proactive tomorrow, they likely have a chance. If not, McEntire probably wins this easily.
Siph: Yep. It's also interesting because we could get quite a few more voters than poll respondents
Lime: Yeah there's at least another 10 votes I reckon. A high turnout could even find another 15 maybe.
Siph: I've seen up to 50 too. There's been a lot of activity about this election, could be even 20+.
Lime: That would be amazing
Siph: I know right! Still a lot of uncertainty
Lime: Definitely. Based on the demographic support it looks like Nate might be in the better position to win the votes of those who didn't take the poll. Polls tend to be over-representative of older members who are strongly backing McEntire. Those who don't take polls tend to be newer and they seem to be leaning towards Nate
Siph: 100%, the large section of 5 years+ definitely stood out to me.
Lime: Makes tomorrow more exciting!
Siph: I completely agree!
