EuroWeekly Senate Election Flash Poll Results!

Lime

I'm bloo
Cabinet
Deputy Minister
Citizen
Senate Election Flash Poll Results:
Clear Frontrunners and a Tight Cluster at the Rear

By Lime

EuroWeekly held a 24 hour flash poll for the upcoming Senate Election from the 27th of July to the 28th of July. A total of 19 respondents completed the poll, and at a 95% confidence level this produces a margin of error of 21%. Like all polls conducted in Europeia they should be taken with a great deal of caution, as they are not conducted scientifically and therefore their reliability is questionable.

If the election was held tomorrow which candidate would you vote for? Including the "Don't Know" option.

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If the election was held tomorrow which candidate would you vote for?

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There is a clear group of frontrunners who appear to be all but guaranteed a Senate seat when the polls open. Gorundu in the forced choice round is picked by every single respondent, while Prim is right behind him just one less vote. Peeps and McEntire are also both in very comfortable positions being selected by almost every respondent as well.

Behind this group of clear frontrunners we see another distinct group, although they are significantly behind the frontrunners. Lime just edges out in fifth place and is narrowly a pick of a majority of respondents. Cove is close behind him with just two fewer votes, however they are the first candidate to not be selected by a majority of respondents. If voters vote in favour of a five seat Senate then it looks to be a tight race between Cove and Lime to win that last seat. Both candidates see their vote total increase in the forced round suggesting that each has the potential to grow their base of support.

If voters instead select a six seat Senate then both candidates will be able to take a sigh, although a small one, of relief as both are fairly far ahead of the next closest candidate DrShadow. Lime would be able to take a slightly larger sigh of relief given his slightly larger lead and critically crossing over the 50% plus line. Cove will need to ensure they can keep their lead or preferably extend it over DrShadow before they can sigh slightly louder. In the event of a seven seat Senate both candidates should be very likely to win their seat.

In the next cluster of candidates we see DrShadow and Spagtop. Both are too far behind to have any real hope of winning in a five seat Senate, and so will be hoping for at least a six seat Senate while praying for a seven seat Senate. Both candidates are behind Cove by a concerning but not insurmountable margin and would need to significantly expand their voter pool in order to overtake them. DrShadow looks slightly better placed to achieve this, given their slight edge in raw votes and the fact they expanded their vote margin in the forced choice round suggesting they may have a slightly higher ceiling. However, the gap between Spagtop and DrShadow is so narrow, Spagtop is highly unlikely to abandon hope.

Given that both candidates would face a very challenging fight to win a sixth seat they'll both want to see a seven seat Senate in order to significantly increase their likelihood of being elected. If voters back a seven seat Senate then it looks to be nail biter for that seventh seat with both DrShadow and Spagtop neck and neck and everything to play for.

Finally, in last place Prov receives zero votes from respondents. While it is likely that he will receive votes in the election itself, this should be a major warning sign to his campaign that if he wants any chance to win a seat in this election then he will need to kick his campaign into overdrive to win over voters.

It looks like many respondents are not using all six of their potential votes, and this could have major implications for who ends up in the Senate. Given that it looks likely to be a tight race for potentially up to three seats, and certainly an extremely tight race for that final seat, respondents who did not use up all six of their votes may want to reconsider. There's a strong possibility that their final few votes could decide who ends up in the next Senate.

How satisfied are you with the current field of candidates?

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Overall, the vast majority of respondents are at least satisfied with the current field of candidates with 73.7% of respondents stating they were either satisfied or very satisfied with the current field. 10.5% said that they were unsatisfied with the current field, while 5.3% said that they were very unsatisfied, resulting in 15.8% of total respondents unsatisfied with the current field in some way. Another 10.5% of respondents said that they were neutral. It appears that initial concerns over an uncompetitive election have subsidised, likely due to additional candidates now standing for election.

Seva

Lloen if he wants, Pland would be good too, JayDee, Izzy, Gaudosia too maybe?

Lloenflys

Seva, UPC, Pland Adanna, Kuramia, Sincluda, Forilian

Lloenflys, PhDre, Pland Adanna

Stefoland I guess

UPC, Icarus, Kuramia

Glad to see more candidates have since stood.

Definite favorites for election and a group of people chasing the sixth+ seat.

PhDre, sky, seva, turb

Pretty nice field for a July election!

nah

Nice to see so many candidates!
 

Lloenflys

"Certainty is an illusion ..."
Vice Chancellor
Citizen
I am glad that we have a robust field of candidates running even though a couple of would-be candidates had to withdraw. I would have liked to run for re-election as I feel there is … well … a lot left undone from this term. Unfortunately my plans to run got upended and my availability has been much less that desired - enough to finish out a term perhaps but certainly not enough to try running again. I am looking forward to Friday and the election of a successor Senate, and I wish them all the best in moving forward. I am very confident that with the candidates we have running, the region will be in capable hands with the 85th Senate!
 

Sopo

lord high chancellor emeritus
Forum Administrator
Cabinet
Honoured Citizen
Citizen
I hope that the newer/less experienced candidates don't take this too hard and continue to push ahead even if they lose. I was in their shoes once (...12 years ago...), and I'm glad I stuck it out after losing multiple Senate elections.
 
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