Europeia Just Might Reopen Nominations

Calvin Coolidge

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For the past 24 hours, The Panda's Pen has been conducting a flash poll on the presidential election. During that time we collected 31 responses, and here they are.

Definitely Rach: 8 | Leaning Rach: 10
Definitely RON: 6 | Leaning RON: 6
Undecided: 1

Rach/Malashaan:17
Reopen Nominations: 14

When looking at the current preferences of voters, we see that a majority (58.1%) are in Rach's corner, either as a strong or slight supporter, while only 38.8% favor re-opening nominations. However, when forced to commit to one choice or the other, Rach suffers, as one of her "leaning supporters", as well as the undecided voter move over to reopen nominations (RON). Looking at both questions, Rach is clearly more likely to win, but given the margin of error in polls such as this, and our limited reach in terms of voters, this is essentially a toss-up; and that's kind of concerning if you are Rach. It's one thing to potentially lose a race as an incumbent, but to have the voters potentially reject you when you are the only candidate running speaks to a lack of trust, which these next few questions might shine a light on in more detail.

Yes: 6
No: 25

Yes: 13
No: 18

Yes: 20
No: 11

These three questions taken together paint an electorate not pleased with how this election has played out in both the candidate field, and the eventual platform released. While the displeasure with the one candidate field is overwhelming, the concern over Rach's platform is relatively lesser, and might be easier to overcome. Either way, seeing these questions, along with the respondent comments below, seem to put the toss-up between Rach and RON in context.
  • It's both a pity and a relief that Oak dropped out
  • The late platform made Rach seem unprepared and did not inspire confidence. The platform is ok, but I don’t understand “mass culture” and would like to see more specifics particularly on domestic issues.
  • I think the problem is not so much a late posting per se but rather the very early standing coupled with a late platform, contributing to a crowding out effect. This is also coupled with the decision to prioritize other public addresses over the platform. That being said I do support Rach and her platform as it does address issues that currently exist in Europeia.
  • I wish there were more candidates so we could compare and discuss topics more broadly.
  • The miniscule timeframe to address Rach's platform doesn't help either. I hope this is a one-time unfortunate happening and not something that will be recurring.
  • It seems rushed.
  • They released platforms late, and I wasn't satisfied enough with Rach's term to vote for her again. I wish someone else had ran.
  • Im dissapointed
  • Looking forward to seeing this out.
  • Wish there was more competition, but I would likely vote the same
  • RON is a discussion worth having this time around, Oak shouldn't have run again but is having some concerning issues conflating RL and RP in this game, and Rach has no excuse for her late platform release. It demonstrates a lack of preparedness at best, a deliberate attempt at minimizing the time window for dissection and debate at worst. I find the reason given - getting work done - is a poor one. We've had plenty of other incumbents get their terms finished out on a strong note while also having their platforms ready to go within a day or so of standing.
  • Honestly RON would be good if just so their platform could go through the full vetting.
    Sure it would have been nice to have seen Rach's platform earlier, but it's out now, give it a rest. Would have also been nice to see more candidates in the race, but I really don't want to stall Ministry progress for x number of days because a few people are whinging about Rach's platform being late.
Thank you for checking out this poll, and remember to vote in tomorrow's presidential election to have your voice heard. Until next time, this is Calvin Coolidge, adjusting his camera settings.

Raw Data
 
Interesting poll results, though I didn't have a chance to vote, I too wish that more people had run in the election.
 
Thank you for the data and the analysis. I think this is pointing to the very large crowding effect that Rach had.

While I believe Rach will ultimately win, I believe in large part this is because most expert Europeians, I think, expected a very high level from the platform. I would not say that the platform is deficient per se; I suspect the numbers reflect in large part the very high expectations Europeians had of Rach and Malashaan. Certainly the delay and, possibly, the rushed platform would, in my estimation, cost the incoming administration influence that they may regret losing.
 
Rach will win; less active citizens care less about platforms and also do not respond to flash polls. If Rach has approximately 60% approval with no challengers among active / political members, it is troubling politically but it does not stand in the way of reelection.

It's also difficult if impossible with the way the poll was phrased to tease out whether disappointment in the platform comes solely from how late it was posted, or if there are greater concerns about the content of the platform.
 
So the majority of responders are not satisfied with the platform and concerned about its late release but eventually it might not have an impact when it comes to general vote. Interesting.
 
Rach will win. But if she doesn't do it by some satisfactory margin (+10 or 15%) it might send an unhealthy wave through the region as the administration would lack both legitimacy and an opponent. Only future will say.
 
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