[euro538ia] MARCH 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION LIVEBLOG

PhDre · Mar 31, 2023

Pichtonia said:
Honestly, I do think it will be more to the benefit of Rand. He got a lot of criticism for his handling of the UPC nomination, including from me, but now he has time to face the criticism - and maybe for emotions to calm down a little. McEntire, on the other hand, probably has more to lose in an extension. Where he was previously a projection area for the frustration with both Rand and Lime, he might find himself in a similar situation to Lime in a runoff, if not worse, because McEntire doesn't have the same recent record of activity to show for. Which, agree or disagree with the notion that it's significant, polling suggests does play a heightened role for many Europeians - more than 90 % indicated that it's an important criteria for them in a Cabinet nominee. The big unknown for me personally is how big and how solid this frustration with the other candidates really is. McEntire could still take it away from here, it's still early in the race.

There's a lot to speculate about - impossible to know exactly how a potential runoff would play out. We might even ask what if a different candidate had stood? Imagine if a very active political Europeian had stood late in the race rather than recently inactive McEntire? What is now a surprise election could maybe have even turned out to be a landslide in favor of a (now imaginary) very active candidate! Any additional thoughts along these lines @Pichtonia ?

Turning also to @Pland Adanna for thoughts on the state of the race. McEntire has a platform now, and the race is a dead heat between McEntire and Rand. 17-17-4. How are you digesting the election day roller coaster? Where do you think things stand now?

Pichtonia · Mar 31, 2023

PhDre said:
What is now a surprise election could maybe have even turned out to be a landslide in favor of a (now imaginary) very active candidate! Any additional thoughts along these lines @Pichtonia ?

There certainly seems to have been a desire for some other candidate for the start, as we saw with Lloenflys polling so well, even though he made rather clear he had no intention of standing. I don't know whether that's love for Lloenflys, a generic desire for candidate X or anything else. I will say that I agree with what others have said, which is that Rand greatly benefits from his inclusion of Writinglegend on the ticket, and it has almost automatically put him in a position where he is frontrunner. I think an imaginary candidate would have had to be either Writinglegend himself or someone of his caliber, Kuramia also comes to mind, to really win in a landslide.

PhDre · Mar 31, 2023

Pichtonia said:
I think an imaginary candidate would have had to be either Writinglegend himself or someone of his caliber, Kuramia also comes to mind, to really win in a landslide.

Speaking of @Kuramia , perfect time to call in Vice President Kuramia to chat about the state of the race. Rand has picked up a few votes and I'm starting to hear rumors that GOTV is fast and furious from the Rand campaign. Some think that the camp could even escape a runoff and win on the first ballot. Any thoughts on the current state of the race, or a bet on a potential runoff?

I also have to ask, since it's been brought up now by Pichtonia - do you think you could have run and won?!

PhDre · Mar 31, 2023

Another politics update at this hour (it feels like updates are coming in too fast!). President Lloenflys has vetoed the Bar Association Omnibus Act authored and piloted through the Senate by Speaker and Presidential candidate Rand. It's hard to imagine that this will particularly weigh on voters, but perhaps another small ding for Rand today - his final sales pitch has been emphasizing his desire to work with stakeholders and build consensus, but his significant judicial reform will be returned to the Senate. Depending on the outcome of the Presidential election, you have to wonder how much enthusiasm there will be to modify the Bar Association Omnibus Act by the Senate..

@Kazaman - let's take a step back and look at the big picture in the Presidential election. What's your impression of the last few hours, and the race so far? Are you surprised by the McEntire surge? Any thoughts about the low enthusiasm in the last week at such a critical moment in Europeian history?

Kuramia · Mar 31, 2023

PhDre said:
Pichtonia said:

I think an imaginary candidate would have had to be either Writinglegend himself or someone of his caliber, Kuramia also comes to mind, to really win in a landslide.

Click to expand...

Speaking of @Kuramia , perfect time to call in Vice President Kuramia to chat about the state of the race. Rand has picked up a few votes and I'm starting to hear rumors that GOTV is fast and furious from the Rand campaign. Some think that the camp could even escape a runoff and win on the first ballot. Any thoughts on the current state of the race, or a bet on a potential runoff?

I also have to ask, since it's been brought up now by Pichtonia - do you think you could have run and won?!

I think the McEntire/SkyGreen campaign did a lot to suddenly drum up renewed interest in what was an okay race - with a candidate with plenty of new ideas and another seemingly just echoing many of those ideas - without a debate. Even if a debate doesn't make or break a campaign, it certainly brings people up and gets those who haven't read platforms yet interested. And GOTV should be the primary concern of both candidates. This new campaign, even without a platform at opening of voting, turned people's heads and I've heard that many people dissatisfied with both campaigns are taking opening that McEntire and SkyGreen saw as marketable.

If someone who was active in politics right now, knew enough about the F/S update to satisfy, and didn't have that Senate scandal looming over their heads had taken up that position, I'd say both campaigns would be in trouble.

As it stands now, I think we're looking at a possible run-off with only one candidate hanging up their hat, which he was probably expecting to anyway. I'd say I'd hope Lime learned from this, but I personally find that doubtful.

I am excited for a run-off, as that's sure to be nailbiting. Goodness, aren't run-offs set to private now?

PhDre · Mar 31, 2023

Kuramia said:
I am excited for a run-off, as that's sure to be nailbiting. Goodness, aren't run-offs set to private now?

The relevant runoff language:

VP2. (2) A run-off election for a Presidential election shall be held after an additional campaign period of between 18 and 36 hours following the close of the relevant election.

OM6. The voting tally of any Run-Off Election shall be hidden from public view while the vote is ongoing.

So yes! A Presidential runoff election will be private, and take place at least 18 hours after the close of the first round.

Speaking of, Lime has picked up another vote. We are at Rand 19, McEntire 17, Lime 5. That is 41 votes with 21 needed to be ahead outright. It could come down to turnout (gasp!).

Kazaman · Mar 31, 2023

PhDre said:
@Kazaman - let's take a step back and look at the big picture in the Presidential election. What's your impression of the last few hours, and the race so far? Are you surprised by the McEntire surge? Any thoughts about the low enthusiasm in the last week at such a critical moment in Europeian history?

I am surprised, yes. I expected McEntire to outperform Lime and maybe force a runoff, but the neck and neck numbers with Rand are surprising.

But it's not an anomaly, it makes sense when you think about it. Polling had already showed discontent with the available options. I imagine a lot of lukewarm Lime supporters and lukewarm Rand supporters moved camps, joining anyone who was already set against both tickets. Nobody expected the swing to be this big, but the signs of a swing were there before.

I think it's unfortunate that the last election before our transition to Frontier went like this. I would've preferred to see the region focus as a single team to prepare and execute the transition, but there's still time to form up after voting ends. It's also a quintessentially Europeian moment when you think about it. How else could this have gone here?

PhDre · Mar 31, 2023

Kazaman said:
I think it's unfortunate that the last election before our transition to Frontier went like this. I would've preferred to see the region focus as a single team to prepare and execute the transition, but there's still time to form up after voting ends. It's also a quintessentially Europeian moment when you think about it. How else could this have gone here?

How Europeian indeed. It's never simple, it's never that easy to get across the finish line. I like to think about the power vacuum - when there is a power vacuum, something fills it. Whether that is a Senate Speaker with new reform ideas (Rand) or a returning member breaking into that soft Rand support and turning a sleepy race into a barn burner (McEntire).

Now to @Icarus , who came out swinging with an endorsement of McEntire. I really am curious about your perspective here. What made you endorse McEntire? Do you think late-entrants are appropriate or appetizing to Europeian sensibilities? What makes McEntire a candidate you feel strongly about? And how do you see this race finishing up?

Icarus · Mar 31, 2023

PhDre said:
Now to @Icarus , who came out swinging with an endorsement of McEntire. I really am curious about your perspective here. What made you endorse McEntire? Do you think late-entrants are appropriate or appetizing to Europeian sensibilities? What makes McEntire a candidate you feel strongly about? And how do you see this race finishing up?

I accidentally hit the send button too early gimme a minute to redo this sorry [the forums are a pain on the phone ;-;]

Pland Adanna · Mar 31, 2023

PhDre said:
Turning also to @Pland Adanna for thoughts on the state of the race. McEntire has a platform now, and the race is a dead heat between McEntire and Rand. 17-17-4. How are you digesting the election day roller coaster? Where do you think things stand now?

I haven't had time to keep up with all the developments of today, so consider me still digesting. Overall, I expect Rand to win in the end, especially in a runoff. I don't see those who are voting for McEntire in protest sticking in the runoff. Still, like I said, I have a lot to catch up on, so, if anything I'm about to say is mistaken, it's because I haven't read through everything that has happened since polls opened.

On a personal note, I will say that I have been extremely disappointed in this election. Some of the parts I love most about Europeia are our political atmosphere, competitive elections, and engaging discussions. I am embarrassed for our region by this campaign season. Two dedicated public servants stood initially, and both posted strong platforms. But one candidate got several endorsements from high-profile members of the community before the other candidate even had the chance to post their platform. During the bulk of the campaign, few questions were asked and no debates were held. Then, a protest candidate emerged, and many citizens voted for that candidate before they even proposed a platform or any plans for the term. This election has not been an exchange of ideas, despite the good ones presented by the candidates. It has not been a discussion about the future of Europeia, despite the pivotal moment in which we find ourselves. It has not featured careful deliberation from citizens weighing the choices, despite the quality of and differences between the candidates. It seems to me that many people chose a candidate without considering the others, without engaging in the competing visions for our region. My observation is that people are thinking more about which person they want to see as president, rather than actually participating to determine which candidate would be the best for Europeia. I expected better from the premier political region in NationStates.

This is not an accusation at anyone in particular. I deeply respect all the tickets, and no one is specifically to blame here. I just hope we, as a region, can do better in the next election.

Icarus · Mar 31, 2023

PhDre said:
Now to @Icarus , who came out swinging with an endorsement of McEntire. I really am curious about your perspective here. What made you endorse McEntire? Do you think late-entrants are appropriate or appetizing to Europeian sensibilities? What makes McEntire a candidate you feel strongly about? And how do you see this race finishing up?

Haiiiii, okay let’s try this again. I have slept 4.5 hours tonight so I hope I’ll be able to formulate my thoughts appropriately.
I must say I was one of the people who were originally leaning Rand but were not entirely there yet. A huge pulling factor for me was Gleg obviously. I have worked with him during almost all of my terms over the last year, he is fantastic in everything he does. I do appreciate Turb a whole lot too and I’m glad to see him on a ticket. However, the upc confirmation did not sit right with me in any way shape or form. I could keep hammering onto this issue but it has been discussed plenty in this thread. Let’s just say it did not help me gain any sense of trust in the two original candidates and rather made me question their motives and their ability to swallow their pride and change their stance when presented with good counterarguments, which is the last thing I want from my president in this time.

I know that many people regard McEntires jump into the race as a not exactly well-thoughtout move but I have to say that I admire his courage to jump in when he sees that things aren’t going in a way that he would deem acceptable. And let’s not forget, he wasn’t the only one who thought things weren’t ideal. The Presidential Poll showed clear dissatisfaction with the presidential field, McEntire was the only one who actually stood up and changed that. Less then half of the people in that poll were satisfied with their given choices. What McEntire has done here is to try his best to ensure there is a additional third candidate voters can chose, rather than having to vote for someone they did not want to vote for. This is the sort of commitment and passion we need from the president who will most likely be deciding over issues that are going to influence Europeia for the next years. Someone who is willing to do the work even when he runs the risk of facing public backlash, who sees wrongs and doesn’t wait for others to fix them for him but instead fights for what he believes is right.
That is ultimately why I want McEntire to succeed and that is why I endorsed him.

In the end I honestly can’t predict how the election will turn out, this election has been very very unpredictable so far.

I just want to add that I did not vote out of protest, I voted because I genuinely think McEntire is the best option for Europeia.

PhDre · Mar 31, 2023

Pland Adanna said:
On a personal note, I will say that I have been extremely disappointed in this election. Some of the parts I love most about Europeia are our political atmosphere, competitive elections, and engaging discussions. I am embarrassed for our region by this campaign season. Two dedicated public servants stood initially, and both posted strong platforms. But one candidate got several endorsements from high-profile members of the community before the other candidate even had the chance to post their platform. During the bulk of the campaign, few questions were asked and no debates were held. Then, a protest candidate emerged, and many citizens voted for that candidate before they even proposed a platform or any plans for the term. This election has not been an exchange of ideas, despite the good ones presented by the candidates. It has not been a discussion about the future of Europeia, despite the pivotal moment in which we find ourselves. It has not featured careful deliberation from citizens weighing the choices, despite the quality of and differences between the candidates. It seems to me that many people chose a candidate without considering the others, without engaging in the competing visions for our region. My observation is that people are thinking more about which person they want to see as president, rather than actually participating to determine which candidate would be the best for Europeia. I expected better from the premier political region in NationStates.

This is cutting insight, PA. I think there's a lot here to unpack. I'm not sure how important endorsements are, but certainly was surprised to see them a week out, before Lime even posted his platform. It certainly down weighed the value of those political endorsements, or at least made it super clear that they weren't interested in issues so much as having a particular player win (or lose). At the same time, you have to think that perhaps that was an early signal that the Lime campaign was in trouble - if folks are ready to kneecap you before you even post your platform... boy I don't know. There's an uphill climb, and then there's that. Not to mention that a lot of folks are onboard with a McEntire campaign without a platform. So much to think about - Is McEntire support based on a "goofy" election as GraV suggests? Or perhaps there is huge dissatisfaction with the Senate's confirmation process over the last week, as Icarus points to? This will definitely be an election for the ages.

@Kazaman let's talk concretely. Do you think that the outcome of this election will make or break Europeia's Frontier transition? Are there big ideas that stand out to you from platforms? Or is this not an ideas race at this point? Can it become one if we do end up in a runoff (with a runoff campaign period!!) ?

Kazaman · Mar 31, 2023

PhDre said:
@Kazaman let's talk concretely. Do you think that the outcome of this election will make or break Europeia's Frontier transition? Are there big ideas that stand out to you from platforms? Or is this not an ideas race at this point? Can it become one if we do end up in a runoff (with a runoff campaign period!!) ?

I don't think there's much that sets these candidates apart in terms of ideas. At least not when you look at it from a bird's eye view, avoiding small, technical discussions. This election has really been about leadership and trust rather than competing visions for the region. Even then, the particular person in office, at least of the three options available, won't make or break our transition. What's more at issue is how effectively all branches of government can come together to complete the work that has started, and support the RSC. I hope the next President is prepared to hit the ground running.

PhDre · Mar 31, 2023

Thank you for your thoughts, Kaz. And let's turn our attention back to the Election itself.

Rand has now pushed into the lead with 28 votes. McEntire has 19, and Lime has 10. This leaves Rand slightly short of a first round victory, but with 57 voters there is still room for turnout to grow. It will definitely come down to the wire, and I for one consider this one of the most shocking and exciting races in recent memory. I hope yall are enjoying the live blog and the race because WHEW... I sure am!

PhDre · Mar 31, 2023

President @Lloenflys - recent developments have Rand now slightly ahead. I am hearing rumors of campaigns stockpiling votes - perhaps a broadside of votes is coming our way in the evening (EST) hours.

How would you suggest the campaigns look at the next few critical hours? And if this should end in a runoff... Which campaign would you rather be? The upstart McEntire? The former favorite Rand? Potential kingmaker Lime?

Lloenflys · Mar 31, 2023

PhDre said:
President @Lloenflys - recent developments have Rand now slightly ahead. I am hearing rumors of campaigns stockpiling votes - perhaps a broadside of votes is coming our way in the evening (EST) hours.

How would you suggest the campaigns look at the next few critical hours? And if this should end in a runoff... Which campaign would you rather be? The upstart McEntire? The former favorite Rand? Potential kingmaker Lime?

"PHDRE? IS THAT YOU? JUST ... ONE SECOND JUST ... HOLD ON ..."

<Crashing noises>

Sorry, sorry, I just had to get down off the mechanical bull. SOPO, put that down!! No!! I said no!!!!

Sorry, back to your question. Well. I have never believed too much in the "Kingmaker" theory. Just because people have voted for Lime doesn't mean they'll necessary follow his lead. If we had political parties or something more concrete to tie people to a candidate then that would maybe be more likely, but in our case I think while either alternative campaign would prefer to have the endorsement, I don't know that it will have a huge amount of weight - I think people will make their own runoff decision.

I'm fascinated by the idea that McEntire stockpiled SIXTEEN VOTES before a platform was posted and had a lead, while post-platform announcement it's been heavily lopsided toward Rand. Does that mean anything? I don't know! But it seems very, very strange and suggests to me that a lot of the early vote might have been protest vote related. It makes me wonder how that vote will hold up during a potential runoff.

I do think the window to campaign - even though it is fairly short - is potentially helpful for McEntire. as an attempt can be made to try to highlight differences more effectively and try to convince people that the campaign isn't just a lark. But ... given that momentum has shifted toward Rand, and that we don't know how loyal those 16 pre-platform votes were ... well it will be interesting to watch.

I think Rand probably is stockpiling at least a very small number of votes, but that's just a suspicion. If so, that could potentially end up being the winning margin. But everything about this election has been surprising, so almost nothing would shock me.

AEX ... GET DOWN FROM THERE ... sorry PhDre, I gotta run. AEX!!!!

PhDre · Apr 1, 2023

What. An. Election.

Polls closed just moments ago and it appears that Senate Speaker Rand and former 10 time President Writinglegend will serve as President and Vice President respectively. Congratulations to @Rand and @Writinglegend , and commiserations to @Lime , @McEntire , @SkyGreen , and @Turbiatop .

President Rand takes over at a time of incredible opportunity for the region of - wait, what's that? @Pland Adanna has an urgent message for me... oh my... OH MY GOD. Please, PA... no, you must tell the liveblog audience... they deserve to know first..

Pland Adanna · Apr 1, 2023

PhDre said:
President Rand takes over at a time of incredible opportunity for the region of - wait, what's that? @Pland Adanna has an urgent message for me... oh my... OH MY GOD. Please, PA... no, you must tell the liveblog audience... they deserve to know first..

BREAKING ON APRIL 1ST

Just as polls closed, the three presidential candidates released the following statement:

This is a pivotal moment in Europeian history. We stand on the precipice of a transition to a frontier region, and the uncertainties are endless. After holding some private discussions and consulting with some anonymous experts, we have decided to all withdraw from the presidential election. Whoever wins tonight will fire their vice president and appoint a new person to that job. Following Senate confirmation, which Speaker Rand and Senator Lime will expedite, the President will resign to make way for a new era for Europeia.

We have determined that Lethen will be the president to lead us through this term.

Signed,

Rand, Senate Speaker and Presidential Candidate
McEntire, Presidential Candidate
Lime, Senator and Presidential Candidate

to be clear, this is 100% a joke. please take it lightheartedly

PhDre · Apr 1, 2023

Pland Adanna said:
Just as polls closed, the three presidential candidates released the following statement:

This is a pivotal moment in Europeian history. We stand on the precipice of a transition to a frontier region, and the uncertainties are endless. After holding some private discussions and consulting with some anonymous experts, we have decided to all withdraw from the presidential election. Whoever wins tonight will fire their vice president and appoint a new person to that job. Following Senate confirmation, which Speaker Rand and Senator Lime will expedite, the President will resign to make way for a new era for Europeia.

We have determined that Lethen will be the president to lead us through this term.

Signed,

Rand, Senate Speaker and Presidential Candidate
McEntire, Presidential Candidate
Lime, Senator and Presidential Candidate

Click to expand...

My God.

In a completely unrelated but relevant commemorative event, and to fund the EBC through yet another year of jortcoin volatility and inflation, the EBC has decided to auction off a fresh NFT. You can own a piece of history - one of the most competitive, mad dashed elections in the history of Europeia.

THE NEXT CITIZEN TO POST IN THIS THREAD WILL WIN THIS PRICELESS NFT COMMEMORATING THE FACT THAT I LIVEBLOGGED THIS ELECTION UNTIL I WENT TO HAPPY HOUR AND STOPPED POSTING.

Lime · Apr 1, 2023

I want a piece of history

[euro538ia] MARCH 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION LIVEBLOG

PhDre

Pichtonia

Fruit Society member

PhDre

PhDre

Kuramia

Trust me.

PhDre

Kazaman

PhDre

Icarus

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Pland Adanna

leaping onward

Icarus

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PhDre

Kazaman

PhDre

PhDre

Lloenflys

"Certainty is an illusion ..."

PhDre

Pland Adanna

leaping onward

PhDre

Lime

Lime Green At Last