ERI Poll: Europeian President Election Priorities

GraVandius

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ERI Poll: Europeian President Election Priorities
Hello everyone, the ERI and Arnhelm Review recently ran a poll to re-calibrate our relatively esteemed Chasing Gold Model, which is 3/4 on correct predictions with the last one being especially correct. Given we have 3 candidates, and possibly more already stating that they intend to run for President we will be running this model in the upcoming election. Given that we expect different considerations for Presidential candidates relative to First Minister candidates it was necessary to change how we evaluate the qualitative part of the model.

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In the above chart I've split the factors into 4 categories. The first category consists of the most important factor, the platform. This received the highest number of 10 ratings at 16 identifying it as the single most important factor. Additionally, it received no votes lower than a 6. This is good news for people looking to jump into this race who don't have a litany of accomplishments already racked up behind their name. If you present a comprehensive, quality platform you have a good shot at pulling off a victory.

The second set of factors are Length of Activity (which is how long their most recent string of activity has been), Domestic and Foreign Affairs Experience. A little surprisingly Domestic Affairs edges out Foreign Affairs experience here by a slight margin. I think generally the perception in the past has put a larger weight on foreign experience. Perhaps though the times of executive split have shifted the region's perception on this matter.



The next category, which falls just under the factor to seriously consider threshold, is Debate Performance and Discord Sociability. The fact that discord activity represents on average a notable factor definetly emphasizes the shift of the region towards a more social, friendly direction than a political one. One person even rated it as their most important factor. I highly question whether a few years ago someone would have ranked skype activity as their most important factor in a presidential election. Additionally, Debate Performance, to a lesser degree might also be a surprise to some people for being this high. This might be impacted by the previous elections debates, which showed poor performance could certainly be a nail in the coffin for a struggling campaign.


The final category is the factors that might be helpful to have but at the end of the day are certainly not a significant factor in the campaign. It is not surprising to see Senate/Judicial activity here as many members of the community have been commenting over the past couple weeks. Legal experience does not transfer over to the executive as they are not really similar. Additionally, maintaining the perception of Europeia as a meritocracy simply being new to a position does virtually nothing for you. Finally, I think confirming what we have seen the past couple elections, public endorsements are not really a major factor either as we've frequently seen popular First Ministers and distinguished members of the region stack up in favor of a candidate only for them to lose. So at the end of the day your endorsement may only be worth marginally more than just your vote.

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In conclusion that does it for these poll results, stay tuned for the launch of the model as we are looking to put out a preliminary rating as standing opens or even a little before. I look forward to an exciting campaign!
 

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This is really interesting data! Things such as Senate/Judicial experience, a good platform and being a newcomer weren't all that surprising, but the importance of debate performance and in particular Discord sociability was slightly surprising. Also interesting to see domestic experience beating out foreign affairs experience; in contrast to CSP's poll. I'm not sure which poll is "right" but I think its clear voters want a ticket with strong experience on both the foreign and domestic sides.
 
Can you clarify on the 2nd graph here?
How did "DA Experience" and "FA Experience" have many high responses, but then have a lower mean in the overall ranking than "Length of Recent Activity"? Or am I reading these graphs wrong?

[EDIT: Actually, on most of these count graphs, the responses seem to show a different mean than the overall mean rankings graph?]

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Alright, evidently I was brutally betrayed by google sheets. Please direct all complaints about the quality of this outlet to 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway in Mountain View, California, U.S.

The graphs should be up to date, for some reason it wasn't counting some of the numbers as actual numbers which greatly lowered the averages. Ironically though this doesn't impact any of the analysis as everything remains in the same general groupings.
 
Thanks for the data GraV. As ever looking forward to the election tracker adding to the rest of the election buzz.

takes notes
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