**ENN Projection - Senate By-Election**

[HEM]

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"ENN Projection - Senate By-Election"
HEM
Managing Editor

ENN is ready to project that Bowzin will be the winner of the November 2019 Senate By-Election. This is based on the results of our exit poll, which collected 25 responses from respondents after they finished voting in the by-election runoff.

ENN anticipates that Bowzin's margin of victory could stretch from 11 to 22 points, with the most likely outcome according to our model below:

Most Likely Outcome:

Bowzin [IND]: 58.82%
Xecrio [IND]: 41.18%

We believe that Bowzin's best performance would see him win 62/38, while Xecrio's best performance would see them lose in a closer 44/56 race.

In the first half of our poll, our models had this race a dead heat due to Xecrio's overperformance with first-round Izzy voters. However, as more data came in it became clear that Izzy voters were going to be split 50/50 between the two candidates.

Both candidates enjoy diverse coalitions, with the average Bowzin voters joining in 2014, and the average Xecrio voter joining in 2015.

The candidates' supporters are split in whether they like the hidden results feature of this election. 60% of Bowzin's voters disapprove of the innovation, while 60% of Xecrio's voters approve. Overall, 48% of respondents approve and 52% disapprove.

While ENN is confident in our call, elections are decided by voters—not polls. If you don't like the results we've called, please vote (or even if you do, please vote)! The final results will be made public in a few hours.

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[Aexnidaral]

Now this is interesting content.

 

[Xecrio]

I do love me some exit polls!

 

[HEM]

Since we are all here, here's some ways I could get egg in my face:

+ Many more people voted in the runoff than those who voted in the first-round election
+ The people who voted in ENN's exit poll are nowhere near representative of the people who didn't
+ People who took the exit poll lied about who they voted for, or who they voted for in the first round of voting

 

[Rand]

I voted that I disliked the hidden polling, but more content like this might change my mind.

 

[Aexnidaral]

I voted that I disliked the hidden polling, but more content like this might change my mind.

Honestly what could make it even more interesting is if the EBC did the exit polling and gave individual outlets the numbers to see how the individual papers make their calls

 

[Kuramia]

If the egg is seasoned well, I could eat it off your face for you.

 

[GraVandius]

Cool, but this content could also easily exist with polls being visible.

 

[Kari]

So you produced "content" that would have existed and could have been read by anyone if the poll results were viewable?

 

[HEM]

So you produced "content" that would have existed and could have been read by anyone if the poll results were viewable?

Well it wasn’t up to me to make the poll results not viewable and I thought I would do this to be fun

This isn’t quite like viewed results though because there’s definitely uncertainty. I took a poll and made a model, but it could be wrong. We will find out soon!

 

[Aexnidaral]

Now that the results are in: very good prediction!

 

[HEM]

Now that the results are in: very good prediction!

I am pretty satisfied!!

 

[Kari]

Know what would have been even more accurate; Viewing the actual poll results as they were occurring.

 

[HEM]

For anyone interested, ENN overestimated Xecrio by about 2/3rds of a point, and underestimated Bowzin by about 2/3rds of a point. If not dead center, still a center bullseye!

ENN Prediction

Bowzin [IND]: 58.82% || Actual Results | +0.68
Xecrio [IND]: 41.18 || Actual Results | -0.68

 

[Darcness]

Cool, but this content could also easily exist with polls being visible.

No, it couldn't. Not in the same way. The old way, the election is decided (and thus, no longer interesting) in the first few hours, plus or minus any 'reserve votes' the candidates have... and experienced candidates will each have a handful, so those are basically a wash. Considering how small of a group we are, the only real question after, say, 7pm Eastern, is whether or not a candidate forgot (or didn't know) to have a solid reserve block.

Where is the excitement when you already know the answer?

 

[Calvin Coolidge]

This was great, HEM! Wasn't there more than this in the poll, though?

 

[HEM]

This was great, HEM! Wasn't there more than this in the poll, though?

There was a question about primary factors behind your choice, but it was kinda garbled and I didn't have time to fully dive into it before posting the exit poll this AM.