ENN Poll: You'd Rather Be Izzy

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"ENN Poll: You'd Rather Be Izzy"
HEM
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On the eve of Europeia's inaugural First Minister election, Izzy has maintained a tentative front-runner status, ENN's latest poll shows.


While his overall support on the top-sheet question has taken a hit, he performs strongly in all runoff scenarios, beating Punchwood or Recombis with 72.4% of the vote and beating Rand with 65.5% of the vote.

"As we expected, the support Izzy had in our previous polling was soft," ENN Contributor Nate Silver says. "But among those who defected from his camp, he seems to still be their second choice. That will be key if this goes to a runoff - and it will."

While this second ENN poll reflects many less undecided voters, just over 30% of the polled electorate say they are likely or very likely to change their mind before balloting opens.

"This is pretty much anyones game lol," World Assembly Delegate Aexnidaral Seymour told ENN after being provided an advance copy of the results.

What does this mean for the candidates?

"Rand looks stronger here than I expected, probably at Punchwood's expense. Recombis looks good but he loses to anyone in a runoff," ENN Opinions Editor Sopo says.

Rand, who was not included in the previous poll, has had a strong—but not meteoric—rise based on these results. Rand also performs decently in various runoff scenarios, losing least to Izzy than any other candidates, beating Punchwood with 62.1% of the vote, and beating Recombis with 51.7% of the vote.

Recombis, a Deputy Minister who many veteran political pundits see as punching above his weight in this election—probably due to a surprisingly strong platform—nevertheless loses in all runoff scenarios.

Punchwood, a former Communications Minister who has been embroiled in several different controversies, loses in all runoff scenarios except against Recombis where he wins with 51.7% of the vote.

"Squinting between the lines, it looks like Rand might be the most likely to prevail and face Izzy in the runoff," Nate Silver says, "But it's really not clear."

Candidate traits:

One of the more interesting questions was where surveyed Europeians were asked about particular traits they felt each candidate had.


Between ENN two's polls, both Rand and Punchwood surpass Izzy on the question of having the right experience. But nobody aside from Izzy seems to be getting strong marks on being a natural leader.


When looking at the question of relatability, across the board respondents have been fairly tepid on whether certain candidates relate to them or not. Both Recombis and Izzy get good marks here, though a full 10% don't feel any candidates can relate to them and their experience.

Finally, when it comes to having the right vision and passion these results are relatively unchanged since the last poll. Recombis, Izzy, and Rand are all at or above 50% of respondents feeling they have the right vision and passion, which is strong, but nobody is running away with it.

Rand is also seen as having the strongest platform by a plurality of 44.8% respondents. Izzy follows with 24.1% seeing his platform as best, with 17.2% and 13.8% seeing Recombis and Punchwood's as superior respectively.

All in all, it's a mixed bag, and it's not immediately apparent how these perceptions are filtering through to people's ultimate voting decisions.

"Punch wins having the right experience but has the smallest share of the vote. Rand has the best platform by quite a bit but doesn't perform that strongly by any other metric," Sopo says.

"There's a very real way pretty much anyone could wind up being the next First Minister, everyone is fairly close to the top 2 threshold for a runoff so it seems like it'll be within a few votes, and the dynamic really shifts based on who goes to a runoff. Punchwood seems to only be able to win against Recombis, Izzy seems to be the "frontrunner", but it's pretty strange to only have a frontrunner dynamic in the latter part of the race," ENN Special Contributor Danno Shololo concludes.

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Also sorry for the fucking photobucket watermarks!!!! I’ll switch the images out when I get home (many hours from now) I had to throw this together on the train.
 
Very interesting results, I’m surprised to see the Punchwood/Winged Bear ticket underperforming. Well done, HEM!
 
Izzy, you need to know who Nate Silver is!

One of the best political analysts. Focuses on statistical analysis!
 
Odd, sorry can’t fix until tonight!
 
@HEM -- I read this in Nate Silver's voice in my head. :p
"As we expected, the support Izzy had in our previous polling was soft," ENN Contributor Nate Silver says. "But among those who defected from his camp, he seems to still be their second choice. That will be key if this goes to a runoff - and it will."
 
Interesting results (certainly surprises in there) and good analysis. Were comments taken as well?
 
Intriguing that Rand had the best results in terms of perceived best platform yet Izzy maintains a strong hold. Are there intentions that can't be swayed regardless?
 
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