Within this week standing for the Senate election will open. To kick off the election season Euro Weekly is releasing a list of candidates deemed most likely to run in the election and ranking them from highly likely to run to unlikely to run. Hopefully later this week an approval poll will be released so we can tell what the public thinks of this current Senate and who they’d like to see run.
Highly Likely (70% of running):
GraVandius: No surprises here, the current Speaker is almost certainly going to run for re-election to the Senate and if elected for the Speakership. Until poll results are out we won’t know how popular/unpopular he is, however with the Senate being very active this term it seems unlikely that he will be majorly unpopular. We also know he has reduced his other duties in order to concentrate his time in the Senate, and a consecutive two term Speakership under his belt could easily be used to project him into a Presidential run or a very high Executive position. GraVandius not running would be a huge shock to us all.
Airbus: Again, no surprises here. While the recent CA Chair election may have been closer than most expected, Airbus still won by a comfortable margin and many were impressed by his record, winning the CA Chair of the Year award. He was also just voted as being the most promising newcomer of the year. Having clearly shown legislative skill and a strong work-ethic, this seems the most logical route for Airbus to take next in his political career. He may instead decide to concentrate on his current role as CA Chair rather than add more responsibility and run for Senate. While this is possible, I think it is more likely he’s going to take the chance to advance his political career with a run.
Aexnidaral Seymour: Having only just recently re-joined the Senate it seems unlikely that Aexnidaral will decided to step back so soon. He won the most votes in the by-election that saw him re-enter the Senate which suggests he is still a popular and formidable player in Europeia. When he was more political active and ambitious in Europeia, Aexnidaral could be a rather polarising figure, but the fact that he is no longer seeking higher political office could mean that those who were less inclined to vote for him before due to his ambition may now feel comfortable enough to vote for him. Aexnidaral does have a busy schedule currently serving in all branches of the Europeian government as well as serving as WA Delegate, it may prove to be too much for him and so he may decide not to run to reduce his workload. However considering he very recently ran for the Senate he would have likely known if he could handle the extra pressure and decided he could, which is why it seems likely he will run for re-election.
Moronist Decisions: Moronist Decisions was just elected alongside Aexnidaral in the fairly recent by-election and so again it seems unlikely that he would now wish to leave the Senate. He has also had plenty of success since returning to the region recently, having been nominated for Associate Justice very soon after rejoining the region as well joining President Rach’s cabinet, it seems likely that he wishes to keep up with this success. Again like Aexnidaral he currently serves in all branches of government meaning he does have a heavy workload, which could deter him from running, but again, he likely knew if he could take the extra pressure before running in the by-election.
Vac: Vac has been very active in the Senate and again while we won’t know his approval rating until the results of the opinion poll, it seems unlikely that he will have a negative rating which would likely push him into running for re-election. The big question surrounding Vac however is the recent controversy gameside. It certainly could harm him and his political career here in Europeia however at the same time it may benefit him. Vac could lose supporters and voters due to this controversy, however the fact that he has now reduced his duties elsewhere in NationStates due to the controversy means he may have more time for Europeia and thus may be able to do a better job. In all likelihood the upcoming Senate election will be a big test for Vac’s political future in Europeia. If he is elected it will suggest his political career is safe and he will be able to start climbing the ranks, if he is not elected then it will be a big blow against him and he may struggle to build momentum again.
Alan Lee: While he failed to be elected CA Chair he certainly gave the winner (Airbus) a tougher race than most were expecting. Alan has been very active within the CA, creating many draft proposals, one of which went onto the Senate and the modified version would go on to pass. He has also run for President before, and despite at the time being very new to the region produced a fairly strong platform. He has shown the ability to write legislation while also being able to debate it and so the Senate seems a logical next step. He has never explicitly stated if he is interested in running for the Senate and it may turn out he is not particularly interested in a highly political career, however the fact that he has run for President before suggest he does certainly have ambition.
May Run (50/50 chance of running):
Vlaska: Vlaska is the only sitting Senator not on the “highly likely” list, which may say something about his chances. After previous attempts to enter the Senate, Valaska was elected in the last election, however he has not been as active as his colleagues and it is unclear if he is interested in another term. Legislation as a whole is something he clearly has an interest in and so serving another term in the Senate would seem logical, however does he have the political ambition to seek another term? That is unclear, which leads me to place him in the 50/50 category.
Festavo: Festavo served as a Senator for two consecutive terms before losing his seat by quite a margin in the December Senate elections. He quickly bounced back however and is now serving as Communications Minister. Returning to the Senate could be a good way for Festavo to build up his influence, name recognition and power within the region and it seems unlikely he would face significant resistance, he certainly has the experience and capability to do the job. On the other hand, the job of Communications Minister is a very demanding one and so to give up time for the Senate could mean he does a poorer job in the Ministry which could prove to be a liability, a good term in Communications could easily set Festavo up for bigger and better things.
United Vietussia: United Vietussia recently returned to the region and has been highly active in Communications. He has done a lot of work producing very high quality articles and has lead some to speculate he could get the job of Communications Minister next term. Vietussia has previously served as a Senator in Europeia, a CA Chair and he has begun discussion on legislative issues and/or matters, so he certainly may be interested in returning to the Senate. It could be a way for him to build up some influence and name recognition which could help him gain new positions, such as Communications. However he may just decide to focus on executive affairs, hoping to secure a potential Ministership, this could be especially true should the candidate field be very large or filed with people highly likely to win a seat.
Unlikely to run (Less than a 50% chance):
Nick Powell: Nick ran for President in the last election before then dropping out, it suggested he was going to become a more politically active player. He then founded “LGBT Euro” for the LGBT+ community in Europeia which again suggested he was going to become more political active. Since then however he has not shown much activity nor shown an interest and/or experience in legislation within Europeia. He may however decide just to run as he did when he ran for President which is why he is still one of the more likely people in Europeia as a whole to run.
Le Libertie: Le Libertie has served as a Senator before as well as a Minister, before exiting the Cabinet this term. He could, like others on the list use the position of Senator to build influence and name recognition. However he has been fairly inactive recently and I’m not sure if he is very interested in returning to the Senate. Rather I think it is more likely you would find Le Libertie trying to return to the Cabinet than the Senate.
PrimorgeOblast: Very new to the region but certainly showing promise, PrimorgeOblast has been active in certain Ministries and Discord as well as discussing some legislative matters. He may decide to run for Senate to kick off his political career however it seems unlikely. He hasn’t shown particular interest in legislation and he’s smart enough to know that running for Senate while being inexperienced likely won’t do him any favours. While in a term or two he may run, for now it seems unlikely but certainly possible.
Highly Likely (70% of running):
GraVandius: No surprises here, the current Speaker is almost certainly going to run for re-election to the Senate and if elected for the Speakership. Until poll results are out we won’t know how popular/unpopular he is, however with the Senate being very active this term it seems unlikely that he will be majorly unpopular. We also know he has reduced his other duties in order to concentrate his time in the Senate, and a consecutive two term Speakership under his belt could easily be used to project him into a Presidential run or a very high Executive position. GraVandius not running would be a huge shock to us all.
Airbus: Again, no surprises here. While the recent CA Chair election may have been closer than most expected, Airbus still won by a comfortable margin and many were impressed by his record, winning the CA Chair of the Year award. He was also just voted as being the most promising newcomer of the year. Having clearly shown legislative skill and a strong work-ethic, this seems the most logical route for Airbus to take next in his political career. He may instead decide to concentrate on his current role as CA Chair rather than add more responsibility and run for Senate. While this is possible, I think it is more likely he’s going to take the chance to advance his political career with a run.
Aexnidaral Seymour: Having only just recently re-joined the Senate it seems unlikely that Aexnidaral will decided to step back so soon. He won the most votes in the by-election that saw him re-enter the Senate which suggests he is still a popular and formidable player in Europeia. When he was more political active and ambitious in Europeia, Aexnidaral could be a rather polarising figure, but the fact that he is no longer seeking higher political office could mean that those who were less inclined to vote for him before due to his ambition may now feel comfortable enough to vote for him. Aexnidaral does have a busy schedule currently serving in all branches of the Europeian government as well as serving as WA Delegate, it may prove to be too much for him and so he may decide not to run to reduce his workload. However considering he very recently ran for the Senate he would have likely known if he could handle the extra pressure and decided he could, which is why it seems likely he will run for re-election.
Moronist Decisions: Moronist Decisions was just elected alongside Aexnidaral in the fairly recent by-election and so again it seems unlikely that he would now wish to leave the Senate. He has also had plenty of success since returning to the region recently, having been nominated for Associate Justice very soon after rejoining the region as well joining President Rach’s cabinet, it seems likely that he wishes to keep up with this success. Again like Aexnidaral he currently serves in all branches of government meaning he does have a heavy workload, which could deter him from running, but again, he likely knew if he could take the extra pressure before running in the by-election.
Vac: Vac has been very active in the Senate and again while we won’t know his approval rating until the results of the opinion poll, it seems unlikely that he will have a negative rating which would likely push him into running for re-election. The big question surrounding Vac however is the recent controversy gameside. It certainly could harm him and his political career here in Europeia however at the same time it may benefit him. Vac could lose supporters and voters due to this controversy, however the fact that he has now reduced his duties elsewhere in NationStates due to the controversy means he may have more time for Europeia and thus may be able to do a better job. In all likelihood the upcoming Senate election will be a big test for Vac’s political future in Europeia. If he is elected it will suggest his political career is safe and he will be able to start climbing the ranks, if he is not elected then it will be a big blow against him and he may struggle to build momentum again.
Alan Lee: While he failed to be elected CA Chair he certainly gave the winner (Airbus) a tougher race than most were expecting. Alan has been very active within the CA, creating many draft proposals, one of which went onto the Senate and the modified version would go on to pass. He has also run for President before, and despite at the time being very new to the region produced a fairly strong platform. He has shown the ability to write legislation while also being able to debate it and so the Senate seems a logical next step. He has never explicitly stated if he is interested in running for the Senate and it may turn out he is not particularly interested in a highly political career, however the fact that he has run for President before suggest he does certainly have ambition.
May Run (50/50 chance of running):
Vlaska: Vlaska is the only sitting Senator not on the “highly likely” list, which may say something about his chances. After previous attempts to enter the Senate, Valaska was elected in the last election, however he has not been as active as his colleagues and it is unclear if he is interested in another term. Legislation as a whole is something he clearly has an interest in and so serving another term in the Senate would seem logical, however does he have the political ambition to seek another term? That is unclear, which leads me to place him in the 50/50 category.
Festavo: Festavo served as a Senator for two consecutive terms before losing his seat by quite a margin in the December Senate elections. He quickly bounced back however and is now serving as Communications Minister. Returning to the Senate could be a good way for Festavo to build up his influence, name recognition and power within the region and it seems unlikely he would face significant resistance, he certainly has the experience and capability to do the job. On the other hand, the job of Communications Minister is a very demanding one and so to give up time for the Senate could mean he does a poorer job in the Ministry which could prove to be a liability, a good term in Communications could easily set Festavo up for bigger and better things.
United Vietussia: United Vietussia recently returned to the region and has been highly active in Communications. He has done a lot of work producing very high quality articles and has lead some to speculate he could get the job of Communications Minister next term. Vietussia has previously served as a Senator in Europeia, a CA Chair and he has begun discussion on legislative issues and/or matters, so he certainly may be interested in returning to the Senate. It could be a way for him to build up some influence and name recognition which could help him gain new positions, such as Communications. However he may just decide to focus on executive affairs, hoping to secure a potential Ministership, this could be especially true should the candidate field be very large or filed with people highly likely to win a seat.
Unlikely to run (Less than a 50% chance):
Nick Powell: Nick ran for President in the last election before then dropping out, it suggested he was going to become a more politically active player. He then founded “LGBT Euro” for the LGBT+ community in Europeia which again suggested he was going to become more political active. Since then however he has not shown much activity nor shown an interest and/or experience in legislation within Europeia. He may however decide just to run as he did when he ran for President which is why he is still one of the more likely people in Europeia as a whole to run.
Le Libertie: Le Libertie has served as a Senator before as well as a Minister, before exiting the Cabinet this term. He could, like others on the list use the position of Senator to build influence and name recognition. However he has been fairly inactive recently and I’m not sure if he is very interested in returning to the Senate. Rather I think it is more likely you would find Le Libertie trying to return to the Cabinet than the Senate.
PrimorgeOblast: Very new to the region but certainly showing promise, PrimorgeOblast has been active in certain Ministries and Discord as well as discussing some legislative matters. He may decide to run for Senate to kick off his political career however it seems unlikely. He hasn’t shown particular interest in legislation and he’s smart enough to know that running for Senate while being inexperienced likely won’t do him any favours. While in a term or two he may run, for now it seems unlikely but certainly possible.
