Election Dissection #2: Senate, December 2012

Swakistek

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Europeian Citizen
Election Dissection



Election Dissection #2: Senate, December 2012
Including results of Round 16 Inquirer Polling
7th December 2012​

Drecq

Drecq joined the Senate in a by-election late this term, and has so far acquitted himself well as an active and competent member of the Senate. His platform focussed on openness to ideas and also on assuring progress of the region through representation of the electorate. Drecq proposed the Judicial Absence Amendment (2012), which is still under discussion.

He polled well on the Round 16 Inquirer Polling, coming equal second with 9 of 11 voters indicating that they would cast a vote for him in these elections.

We believe that he is likely to be re-elected to the Senate due to his active start and his support in the region.

Apollo

Apollo is one of the more experienced candidates in these elections, having served four terms in the Senate as well as various Cabinet positions. He didn't have any specific policy items that he wanted to pursue this term, but indicated that he was in favour of the amendment to deal with judicial absences, and also indicated his support for our treaty with Balder.

Apollo also polled well on the Round 16 Inquirer Polling, coming equal second with 9 of 11 voters indicating that they would cast a vote for him in these elections.

We believe that Apollo is highly likely to be re-elected to the Senate due to his experience, activity and perceived strong performance this term.

Bryan von Richthofen

Bryan ran for the Senate in the most recent by-election, but was unsuccessful and has since participated in the Citizens' Assembly. He indicated that he would hope to maximise equality and efficiency in the Senate's governance, and that his research has been based on need to look at laws that are relevant to each proposal.

Bryan polled relatively poorly on the Round 16 Inquirer Polling, coming equal sixth, with only 4 of 11 voters supporting him.

We believe that Bryan is on a knife-edge with regards to his bid for a seat in the Senate, due to his apparently relatively low support in the electorate. He'll need to do some solid work going forward if he wants to secure his chances going into these elections.

Cerian Quilor

Cerian is another of the more experienced Senators in this race, and emphasised this in his platform, mentioning his time both in the Europeian Senate and in interregional legislatures. He indicated that he would also stick to his convictions and a 'WYSIWYG' approach to his work. He didn't mention any specific proposals that he wanted to raise next term.

Cerian polled moderately well on the Round 16 Inquirer Polling, coming fourth with 7 of 11 voters endorsing him.

We believe that Cerian is likely to be re-elected to the Senate, due to his activity and experience, and solid support in the electorate.

Christopher Bishop

Christopher Bishop is a name that few had heard of around Europeia until this race, and this will likely be his downfall if he is unsuccessful in his bid for the Senate. While he assured that he had strong interregional legislative experience and the skills necessary to contribute to the Senate, he received much criticism for the short length of his platform, and for his negligible involvement in the region until these elections.

One commenter suggested that:

I feel that Christopher Bishop should have refrained from running in this election in order to gain more experience in the region.

This would seemingly reflect the prevalent attitude to Christopher's candidacy in these elections.

Christopher polled extremely poorly on the Round 16 Inquirer Polling, coming last with only 2 of 11 voters expressing support for him.

We believe that Christopher is highly unlikely to be elected to the Senate due to his lack of Europeian experience and involvement, and consequently low public support. Unless some of the stronger candidates mysteriously disappear or Christopher can work some sort of a miracle, he might have to try again next time.

Alexander

Alexander, aka Shadowlurker, is another incumbent Senator who is standing for re-election. He mentioned that he hoped to improve his performance if he is re-elected to the Senate, as he indicated that his experience would help him now that he "knows what to expect". He did not mention any particular bills that he wished to propose.

Alexander polled moderately well on the Round 16 Inquirer Polling, ranking 5th with 6 of 11 voters endorsing his candidacy.

We believe that Alexander is likely to be re-elected to the Senate due to his reasonable public support, although he will need to work to solidify his support base in order to secure his place in the next Senate.

Common-Sense Politics

Common-Sense Politics, while not a Senator this term, is the most experienced of the candidates standing for election with several Senate terms under his belt as well as a brief time as Speaker of the Senate, service as President and in various Cabinet Ministries.

His platform was extensive and the most thorough of the candidates, and focussed on reform of intelligence oversight and information classification, review of our treaty obligations, review of the Criminal Code and reducing representation from the Citizens' Assembly in the Senate. He indicated that he wanted to see the Senate engaged in policy and concerned with the will of the public, and was the only Senate candidate to present a detailed policy agenda for the term ahead.

Common-Sense Politics polled excellently on the Round 16 Inquirer Polling, ranking first with 11 of 11 respondants indicating that they would vote for him.

CSP also polled extremely well on our question asking which Senate candidate had the most effective platform for their work in the Senate next term, with 10 of 11 votes in this question.

We believe that he is all but certain to be returned to the Senate at the next elections due to his detailed agenda, experience and high levels of popular support.

JGlenn

JGlenn returned recently from a personal absence from Europeia to run for the Senate, and indicated that while he has been absent for some time, he has done research and his experience in the Senate and Cabinet in the past would assist him if he is returned to the Senate next term. He also indicated a desire to clarify the order of succession in the Courts in the absence of both the Chief Justice and Primus Inter Pares.

JGlenn polled relatively poorly on the Round 16 Inquirer Polling, coming equal sixth, with only 4 of 11 voters supporting him.

We believe that JGlenn is on a knife-edge with regards to his bid for a seat in the Senate, likely due to his very recent return to the region after a long hiatus. JGlenn will need to push his message and secure more support if he wants to return to the Senate next term.



Other Questions on the Senate elections

Important Characteristics for Senators

We also asked our respondants to indicate what aspects were most important to them in choosing Senate candidates to vote for. Here are the results-

Previous legislative experience: Important
Past experience outside the legislature: Neutral-Important
Legislative platform: Important-Very Important

This reflects the significance of past experience in the Citizens' Assembly and in the Senate and of the strength of a candidate's platform as predictors for electoral success.

This will further aid Common-Sense Politics' already strong position, due to the wide public support for his platform.

Field of Candidates

Voters indicated that they were Neutral-Satisfied with the field of candidates for the Senate elections, with 63.7% of voters indicating that they were either satisfied or very satisfied.

However, there is also a feeling that the field could use some work.

One respondant indicated:

Given the current field I struggled to pick 6 candidates for the poll, and it is unlikely I will use all 6 of my votes in the election if more candidates do not stand, which is saying something because I always use all my votes.

Size of the Senate

The electorate also returned support of 63.6% for maintaining the size of the Senate at the present level (six seats), as the Electoral Panel has now decided.




Senate Speakership

We also asked our respondants about which candidate was most suited to be Speaker of the Senate.

Common-Sense Politics came out in front with 8 of 11 votes, and would seem to be the obvious choice due to his extensive past experience, strong agenda and high levels of public support.

One respondant commented:

CSP is unquestionably the best candidate and my pick for Senate Speaker.

Apollo, Cerian Quilor and Alexander, all running for re-election, all had one vote each for this question.

When we asked about what characteristics were most important for the Senate Speakership, past Senate experience was said to be Very Important, with past leadership experience, a personal legislative platform and a whole-Senate/Speakership-specific platform ranking as Important. This would further suggest that Common-Sense Politics is the frontrunner to be the next Speaker of the Senate, due to apparent public support for him in all of these areas.




What it comes down to:

I think the polling results are pretty spot-on here as to who's likely to continue. All of the incumbents who are standing are likely to return, and we'll very likely see Common-Sense Politics return as well.

The final seat will be a toss-up between Bryan von Richthofen, JGlenn and perhaps Alexander, and all three of these will need to do some work to secure their place in the Senate next term.

Alexander has the advantage of incumbency, while Bryan has been here for some time in the Citizens' Assembly and JGlenn, while experienced, has only just come back from a long hiatus. It's a tough one to call, but I would say that Bryan has the edge over JGlenn at this point, and Alexander will probably beat them both.

Here's our Senate for next term:

- Common-Sense Politics
- Drecq
- Apollo
- Cerian Quilor
- Alexander
- Bryan von Richthofen

And, of course, our Senate Speaker - I'm predicting Common-Sense Politics, simply because he's experienced, he has a strong legislative agenda and he's likely to have a high level of public support for this role.

And that's how Swak sees it.

Swakistek Alexander Anumia
Guest Contributor, Europeian Citizen

[size0]This edition of Election Dissection is prepared by the Europeian Inquirer for the Europeian Citizen and published with permission.[/size]
 
A very good analysis. As always.

Why didn't you publish this in the Inquirerer forum?
I asked him to write this edition of 'Election Dissection' as I felt it would be innapropriate for me to do so. He incorporated his results as was natural.
 
Will you be doing additional analysis of the Senate debate?
 
I'm doing this as a guest contribution for CSP, because he asked me to. I'm combining it with my polling results, because I don't feel like writing a separate article for the polling...plus there's no real reason to.

This one is CSP's Christmas present from me. :p

And no. I won't be analysing the Senate debate.
 
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