Election Day in Europeia -- Chief of State Election Coverage

[HEM]

Election Day in Europeia -- Chief of State Election Coverage ​

HEM @ 10:38 AM PST: Hello to our viewers in Europeia and around the world, welcome to ENN's coverage of today's Chief of State Elections. With Senators casting their votes now, it's possible that this election could unfold before our eyes in minutes -- or we could be here for quite some time.

Let's take a look at the Senate chambers to see what votes have already been cast:

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Senators Rotasu and Peeps have lined up behind Malashaan, while Senators Deepest House, Prim, and Speaker Lloenflys are supporting Sopo. In terms of unaccounted votes, Senator Calvin Coolidge has endorsed Sopo while Senator Olde Delaware has endorsed Malashaan -- giving each candidate another vote. With big question marks looming, we'll continue our coverage right after this.

HEM @ 10:53 AM PST: ENN has received multiple unconfirmed anonymous reports that Senator McEntire intends to cast his ballot for Malashaan. If true, that would immediately pull this race into a tie. Going into election day, Senator McEntire and Speaker Lloenflys were two undecided votes that ENN was aware of.

HEM @ 11:02 AM PST: There's a bit of a kerfuffle in EuroChat about Senators who supported the direct election of the Chief of State voting contrary to public opinion according to a last minute Aex's Grumps poll that showed roughly 70% of respondents supporting Sopo. This poll result was a wide swing from Monkey's Poll which showed the public supporting Malashaan with 54% of the vote. ENN hasn't been closely tracking public opinion because, well, it isn't directly relevant to the election mechanism. But it's a fair question as to whether the public swung toward Sopo since Monkey's Poll (perhaps due to the debate that most people think Sopo won), or whether each poll captured different segments of the region.

HEM @ 11:12 AM PST: For posterity, some of the most compelling standalone quotes from that discussion:

Aex - Today at 10:58 AM
"But you can't try to ram an amendment down the region's throat to take effect in this election and then say that you don't care [about public opinion]."

Mayor-Senator-Elector Peeps - Today at 10:57 AM
"Just because I pushed for direct election does not mean I should always vote for whoever the polls think is winning. This is my preference, and as a voter, I express my preference."

UV - Today at 11:01 AM
"I might be more inclined to be okay with it if a rationale of vote was posted as some other Senators have done, but this is simply just a vote with no explanation, especially coming from a Senator that seems to be rejecting the policy they just very recently supported."

Verteger - Today at 11:04 AM
"I personally don't think it is cognitively dissonant to say "I would support a direct election" and "we don't have a direct election, so if I get to be one of the few voters on this, I will vote my preference"."

Lloenflys - Today at 11:10 AM
"I support popular elections, I do not support election via poll, and whatever the margin of error is, it is not the same as a popular election [...] So I think the criticism of Peeps for doing his job and casting his vote for the person he sees as the best fit for the job is unreasonable."

HEM @ 11:28 AM PST: It's official, McEntire #IsWithMal. There are still three votes outstanding, but two of them have been pledged via public endorsement (Senator Calvin Coolidge for Sopo, Senator Olde Delaware for Malashaan). One swing vote remaining:

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HEM @ 11:30 AM PST: A lot of potential election scenarios are being game out in EuroChat, just want to transcribe a few over to the forum for people who may be following along here // for posterity's sake:

Lloenflys- Today at 11:27 AM
So ... let me just talk this out in public. If Darc casts a vote for a candidate, and if Calvin and OD vote as expected, then there will be a winner and we will have a CoS. If Darc casts a vote for ROE, it would finish in a tie, and there would be a revote with the ROE option eliminated. If Darc abstains, there will be a tie ... and presumably still a revote?
And then at the end of the "runoff" it would go to me?

Rotasu for Mayor, ASP - Today at 11:28 AM
If it goes into a runoff, my vote flips

Rotasu for Mayor, ASP - Today at 11:30 AM
I see no reason to drag this election on if I like both candidates but lean towards Mal? I don't want to put pressure on the speaker for my near neutral stance

HEM @ 11:32 AM PST: Senator Rotasu making some breaking news that he would flip his vote if it came down to a tie, in order to spare the Speaker from having to adjudicate a tie-breaking process.

HEM @ 11:34 AM PST: Yeehaw, Senator Rotasu's announcement just got upstaged by one from Malashaan himself:

Malashaan - Today at 11:33 AM
If there is a tie in the first round, I will concede. Sopo is an excellent candidate and I don't think drawing this out further would help anyone. I believe in my vision and hope to win, but I think a quick resolution is better for the future

I wonder if this act of selflessness might actually win over Senators?

HEM @ 12:01 PM PST: Senator Olde Delaware officially casts his vote for Malashaan. He's been a steadfast supporter and surrogate to Mal, so no surprise here. Still waiting on Senator Calvin Coolidge who has pledged his vote to Sopo, and Senator Darcness who is the final swing vote.

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HEM @ 12:04 PM PST: It's worth taking a quick stroll down memory lane. In polling that ENN conducted prior to Malashaan joining the race, Sopo got four votes from self-declared Senators and Malashaan got five. One of those votes were definitely false -- as the Senate only had eight members at the time -- but it is fascinating how after all of this, the final result will come extremely close to, or identical to the initial polling.

HEM @ 2:10 PM PST: Apparently the swing vote, Senator Darcness, feels both candidates' platforms are "too ambitious" and has asked for Council pick information to further inform his choice. Both candidates jointly agreed to buck tradition and release their picks, which has spurred further questioning from Senator Darcness.

HEM @ 2:31 PM PST: The swing vote, Darcness has cast his vote for Malashaan. Roughly an hour ago, Senator Calvin Coolidge voted for Sopo as expected. As such, it looks like Malashaan is the victor here. Confirmation to follow.

HEM @ 2:37 PM PST: Final map of the Senate and tally below:

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Malashaan ***PROJECTED WINNER***

Olde Delaware
Rotasu
Peeps
McEntire
Darcness

Sopo

Prim
Calvin Coolidge
Deepest House
Lloenflys

HEM @ 2:51 PM PST: It's hard to characterize an election that ended just the way polls predicted it would weeks ago. As one of the original proponents of a Senate-elected executive, I can't pretend to not be disappointed with how everything panned out. The process was extremely opaque for everyday citizens -- ENN had to promise secrecy to get even vague senses of where Senators stood -- making it very difficult for citizens to engage with their representatives or hold them accountable.

Senators varied wildly on how much information they released on their votes, and with the exception of Olde Delaware, it's tough to argue that any of them truly debated in favor of their pick in the public sphere. In my conversations with Senators, it wasn't immediately obvious that many of them were weighing this choice more mightily or with more intellectual rigor than any citizen would weigh their vote in an election. With no real intrigue citizens could participate in (or barely even watch), and with no "expert-level" benefit of the Senate selecting the Chief, it seems the two main arguments for this particular election formula are moot. No matter what happens next, this is likely to be the last Senate election of an executive, which I'm very sad to say is probably a good thing.

 

[McEntire]

I will say, I agree with Verteger here. It was very difficult to be a Senator in this case, particularly having dueling polls and not knowing what to trust in terms of public opinion. But our duty, under the system as currently constituted, is to vote with our best judgment. That's the bottom line, and while this was a very difficult decision, and I'm sure was a difficult decision for my colleagues, the idea that we should be driven by anonymous polling -- regardless of our stance on direct election -- is bunk.

 

[Bowzin]

I'm pretty shook about the releasing of the council picks, to be honest. Confirming Councillors is a separate process for a reason, in my opinion. Shouldn't be basing votes on it. If you don't like a pick, you can vote against it during confirmation and push for a new candidate.

 

[HEM]

I'm pretty shook about the releasing of the council picks, to be honest. Confirming Councillors is a separate process for a reason, in my opinion. Shouldn't be basing votes on it. If you don't like a pick, you can vote against it during confirmation and push for a new candidate.

Yeah, I think Darcness has applied a lot of pressure here. Which he can, with the amount of leverage he has.

 

[Prim]

To be honest, it's probably easier to "veto" a nominee with how Darcness used his leverage than it would have been trying to "veto" a nominee after the CoS had been elected. We've seen how hard it is to actually conduct real oversight on cabinet nominees. The only person to my memory that was outright rejected by the Senate was Recombis.... And he left the region due to the fallout.

 

[HEM]

To be honest, it's probably easier to "veto" a nominee with how Darcness used his leverage than it would have been trying to "veto" a nominee after the CoS had been elected. We've seen how hard it is to actually conduct real oversight on cabinet nominees. The only person to my memory that was outright rejected by the Senate was Recombis.... And he left the region due to the fallout.

Yeah I mean, I don't really have a value judgement on what Darcness did. I guess my first thought is that there should be more than enough information out there (platforms, the debate, etc.) to make a determination. If he was truly, truly torn after all of that I guess all he can do is ask for more information.

I've traditionally been pretty sour on people asking for extra information in these types of situation when there's already a lot of information (Senators dithering when doing the First Minister tiebreaker in November being an example). At the end of the day though, I'm not casting the vote so maybe it's not for me to say?

 

[Malashaan]

I think this is a discussion we should have outside of the context of an election. Historically, candidates have always kept their picks private, but we always know who they are. And through the process of discussing projects and ideas to get prepared, much of that information often leaks, at least to some people. I can see arguments that you should vote for the ticket, and confirmation is separate, but equally, you're ultimately voting on getting the whole team, and who a candidate picks has a significant impact on what the administration ultimately looks like.

Having picks be public really would weaken the oversight provided by confirmation though. It's a lot harder to reject a nominee that was known to be on a winning ticket than one who was not announced until after the election. That said, as Prim noted, rejections are very rare anyway, so maybe it's something worth exploring.

 

[Izzy]

With respect to all involved in the process, I think what this election has highlighted the most for me is that I'm glad we'll be putting the power to choose the next Chief of State in the hands of the People.

 

[Prim]

The bill is on the FM's desk, just waiting for signature.

 

[Lethen]

With respect to all involved in the process, I think what this election has highlighted the most for me is that I'm glad we'll be putting the power to choose the next Chief of State in the hands of the People.

How did you come to that conclusion?

 

[Izzy]

With respect to all involved in the process, I think what this election has highlighted the most for me is that I'm glad we'll be putting the power to choose the next Chief of State in the hands of the People.

How did you come to that conclusion?

I assumed (correctly) that Ist would sign the bill.

 

[Lethen]

With respect to all involved in the process, I think what this election has highlighted the most for me is that I'm glad we'll be putting the power to choose the next Chief of State in the hands of the People.

How did you come to that conclusion?

I assumed (correctly) that Ist would sign the bill.

That doesn't answer my question? How has this election highlighted that it's a good thing to put Chief of State elections in the hands of the People?

 

[Izzy]

With respect to all involved in the process, I think what this election has highlighted the most for me is that I'm glad we'll be putting the power to choose the next Chief of State in the hands of the People.

How did you come to that conclusion?

I assumed (correctly) that Ist would sign the bill.

That doesn't answer my question? How has this election highlighted that it's a good thing to put Chief of State elections in the hands of the People?

Due to its competitive nature, it came down to 1 vote among a group of 9 in a region with over 200 citizens. The 5 senators who voted for Malashaan/Dax are ~2.5% of our population and they just decided the direction of the region's foreign policy for the next 3 months. This is not meant to deride their new administration in any way and I think they will do a great job but election by the Senate never sat well with me, and the way this played out only further reinforced that for me. I also think that direct election by the populace carries a clearer, stronger mandate.

 

[McEntire]

With respect to all involved in the process, I think what this election has highlighted the most for me is that I'm glad we'll be putting the power to choose the next Chief of State in the hands of the People.

How did you come to that conclusion?

I assumed (correctly) that Ist would sign the bill.

That doesn't answer my question? How has this election highlighted that it's a good thing to put Chief of State elections in the hands of the People?

Due to its competitive nature, it came down to 1 vote among a group of 9 in a region with over 200 citizens. The 5 senators who voted for Malashaan/Dax are ~2.5% of our population and they just decided the direction of the region's foreign policy for the next 3 months. This is not meant to deride their new administration in any way and I think they will do a great job but election by the Senate never sat well with me, and the way this played out only further reinforced that for me. I also think that direct election by the populace carries a clearer, stronger mandate.

As one of these Senators, I have to say that I agree with this entirely. While I tried to ask my major questions of these candidates openly, and give public rationale for my ultimate vote, it was extraordinarily difficult to divine what public opinion was here. There were competing polls and lobbying by many different citizens whose counsel, in various other circumstances, I would trust immensely. I voted with my absolute best judgment using all of the information I deemed necessary, but this is a region of many views. Can I say that I voted in the public interest, as I saw it? Yes. Can I say that I voted in the way the public may have done? I have no idea!

None of this is to say that there should be any asterisk next to the incoming Chief of State, I think that the near-identical and highly qualified teams assembled by these two candidates speak to the fact that we would have truly been well-served by either of them. Ultimately, I think that we as a region should be cheering Malashaan on and working together for the success of his approach. But that does not mean that we cannot question the wisdom of this election method. And I think if some of my Senate colleagues were less gracious they could issue a big fat "I Told You So" to those -- including myself -- who criticized them for attempting to hastily move this election to a direct election method.

 

[Darcness]

it was extraordinarily difficult to divine what public opinion was here.... Can I say that I voted in the way the public may have done? I have no idea!

I think at the end of the day that is part of the point. Senators were expected to be learned individuals making the best decision for the region, not making the decision they think the public would have made. A purely representative vote, wherein a Senator votes the way they think people want to see, is a distinction without a difference with regard to Senatorial elections vs direct elections. This is one of those times where you are expected to make your best choice.... which is pretty much what happened. So the 'I Told You So's really wouldn't make any sense.

 

[Darcness]

Having picks be public really would weaken the oversight provided by confirmation though. It's a lot harder to reject a nominee that was known to be on a winning ticket than one who was not announced until after the election. That said, as Prim noted, rejections are very rare anyway, so maybe it's something worth exploring.

I disagree that it is a 'lot' harder to reject a nominee. "People liked your platform and your vision, but this particular person you chose just plain sucks" is still a valid response for a Senator in a confirmation hearing.

As far as a candidate 'showing their hand' with Council/Minister picks, I can only say this: A leader is only as good as their team, and the purpose of any Executive Head is to lead our Ministers/Councilors. In what world would we not consider the team as part of the equation?