Thanks for the invite!
As you mentioned, at what is now 47 votes, we are approaching the maximum number of votes that we will get. Looking at the average of the past three Senate elections, the average is just over 57 total votes cast. If we suppose that is the number of votes that will be cast in this election, then 29 votes are required to win, and there are 10 remaining votes to be had.
While it's true that Prov is just one vote shy of a majority as of this post, I would think of this approval voting system as more of a horserace, where the goal is simply to pass the threshold. In Prov's case, he is 7 votes away from receiving 29 votes, which means he needs 70% of the remaining voters to pick him. That's a tall order from a candidate who only has 47% of the vote so far, and means that he really need to put his foot on the gas in the coming hours if he wants a shot at getting elected.
Speaking of which, I have a table of all the candidates, their vote shares, and the votes they will need to win a majority, assuming that 29 votes is indeed the threshold (which I could very much be wrong about!)
EDIT: my table did not work

so here is an image
Just to point out a couple of things: first of all, a candidate with 0 votes needed for a majority has, in this model, already locked in their seat and could win despite gaining no further votes. In the right hand column, these candidates have a fully green 0.00%. Conversely, a candidate with more votes needed for a majority than 10, the number I'm estimating to be the number of votes left, is locked
out of victory under this model, with a number greater than 100% in the right hand column.
In short: I think Prov faces long odds but still has a chance (as, incidentally, does Caldrasa), JL appears unfortunately to have already lost the face while five candidates are almost guaranteed to win already, and two candidates -- GraVandius and Monkey -- are likely, but not guaranteed, to win.