EBC Liveblog: General (Senate) Election January 2025

Pax Europeiana, fellow republicans!

Very happy to announce the EBC's liveblog of the ongoing general election, which begun just a under an hour ago. This election has the potential to provide us with a large Senate, as we have 10 viable candidates who all seem to be getting votes in.

Right now the tally looks like this:
United Vietussia [IND] Votes: 10 52.6%
JayDee [IND] Votes: 16 84.2%
Caldrasa [IND] Votes: 7 36.8%
Monkey [Fruit Lovers Society] Votes: 10 52.6%
John Laurens [IND] Votes: 9 47.4%
Comfed [IND] Votes: 13 68.4%
Lloenflys [IND] Votes: 17 89.5%
GraVandius [You Have Brought This Upon Yourself] Votes: 11 57.9%
Malaxa [IND] Votes: 14 73.7%
Prov [EPPS] Votes: 9 47.4%
None of the Above Votes: 0 0.0%

Want to see a graph of the results as they roll in? I'll get to it soon, but first let us hear from @Ervald on how this election is shaping to unfold

We will be inviting more guests as the night goes on, thank you for tuning in to the EBC Liveblog
 
It is only 22 votes so far so we're not even halfway but so far, it looks like Cal will likely not get-elected. Prov and JL are going to have a rough time with re-election and UV and Monkey are barely on the edge too. Prov was commended on improving significantly on their platform but folks might be biased against him for past campaigns he ran. JL has been a very active senator but they are a firebrand so they might be getting blowback for that. UV and Monkey have both recently gotten more active lately so a lot of voters probably just don't feel familiar enough with them to give them their vote.

I think for those 4, they could all get in if they make sure to GOTV. I have gotten GOTV messages from JL, UV, and Prov. So optimistically, we might get a 8 seat senate. But we could very well only get 5 seats if those candidates struggle to stay above 50%.
 
Thank you for the comment Ervy! Indeed, you shouldn't discount the impact GOTV has got, I received GOTV from several candidates and I did see it in a positive light.

It appears that Caldrasa, John Laurens, and Prov are currently below the 50% threshold. @PhDre and @Grea Kriopia have received an official invite to comment, but I'll also offer a standing invitation to anyone who'd like to provide their analysis of the current state of the election.
 
It appears that Caldrasa, John Laurens, and Prov are currently below the 50% threshold. @PhDre and @Grea Kriopia have received an official invite to comment, but I'll also offer a standing invitation to anyone who'd like to provide their analysis of the current state of the election.
A few things stand out to me here compared to our previous (and first) attempt at Approval Voting.

  • Lloenflys is trouncing, with the highest vote % I believe ever(?). It's not particularly surprising that he is head and shoulders above the competition, but 87% is a big number traditionally (recall in the past voters couldn't vote for every candidate).
  • No candidate is doing downright terribly, whereas Hyanygo performed quite poorly in the previous General Election (22%).
  • John Laurens's weak performance is probably the surprise of the election, as he has the least votes of any candidate (13 / 39 votes = 33%).
    • JL was the second lowest performing Senator in the EBC Senate mid-term poll after Cordova I, which makes you wonder if Cordova I would have faced similar headwinds if he had sought re-election.
  • Last General Election, candidates below 50% over-performed in the back half of the race.
    • We're got more votes in (38) compared to our snapshot from the November 2024 General Election (20), but perhaps low-performing candidates make more of an effort to get over the 50%+1 bar (via GOTV, #grand-hall, etc) and this helps them in their attempt to rally for a majority of voters. Voters who vote late might be a bit more marginal, or willing to toss a vote to an underdog candidate who is on the outside looking in.
    • With 39 votes in, it seems pretty hard for candidates below 40% to come back. I think they have to hope for a sizable turnout of voters willing specifically to vote for them. This level of differential turnout is possible but requires luck and hard work to align.
 
That's some stellar insight, thank you so much!
here is a graph displaying the percentages over time!
General Election January 2025 - Percentages.png

Now I invite our Chief Justice, the Venerable @Rand
Rand, you've got a lot of experience in the Senate, and have had great success there, what can you tell us about the election so far? And as the main architect of the approval voting system, how do you comment on the comparison between this and the previous election?
 
Thank you for inviting me, Sky!

I think it's interesting that approval voting is poised to deliver another 7-seat Senate, which has historically been the most popular Senate size (besides perhaps 5 seats) if I'm not mistaken.

For those who were concerned that approval voting would make our elections less competitive, this election is also proving to be another counterexample to that claim. We have three candidates who haven't quite broken the 50%, including one highly active incumbent, Senator @John Laurens. We also have two candidates still below 55%, including former Senate Speaker @GraVandius, putting them in danger of dipping below 50% as the elections ticks along.

All in all, approval voting continues to look like a success to me. As a voter myself, I'm enjoying the simplified experience and ability to fully vote my conscience.

Finally, I just wanted to note this is our first general election in over a year without former Speaker @Cordova I in the mix. He will be missed, and I hope his apparent retirement doesn't last for too long.
 
Sky is feeling sleepy right now so I am taking over the blog for him. Thank you for your insightful comments, @Rand. Now that a few hours has passed and most Americans should be off work now, how is it looking?

United Vietussia Votes: 26 57.8%
JayDee Votes: 32 71.1%

Caldrasa Votes: 21 46.7%
Monkey Votes: 24 53.3%
John Laurens Votes: 14 31.1%
Comfed Votes: 29 64.4%
Lloenflys Votes: 39 86.7%
GraVandius Votes: 25 55.6%

Malaxa Votes: 29 64.4%
Prov Votes: 22 48.9%

We are now at 45 votes which is approaching ever so closer to the maximum number of votes we will realistically have. You will see the candidates bolded that are over 50%. If the election was to end right now, we would have 7 senators with Caldrasa, JL, and Prov not making it in which was the same result as earlier. However, Prov is only a few votes away from having a majority so that could very well change over the next few hours.

As someone who has been in the Senate themselves, I'll invite @Comfed to the blog to get their thoughts especially on Prov's chances.
 
Thanks for the invite!

As you mentioned, at what is now 47 votes, we are approaching the maximum number of votes that we will get. Looking at the average of the past three Senate elections, the average is just over 57 total votes cast. If we suppose that is the number of votes that will be cast in this election, then 29 votes are required to win, and there are 10 remaining votes to be had.

While it's true that Prov is just one vote shy of a majority as of this post, I would think of this approval voting system as more of a horserace, where the goal is simply to pass the threshold. In Prov's case, he is 7 votes away from receiving 29 votes, which means he needs 70% of the remaining voters to pick him. That's a tall order from a candidate who only has 47% of the vote so far, and means that he really need to put his foot on the gas in the coming hours if he wants a shot at getting elected.

Speaking of which, I have a table of all the candidates, their vote shares, and the votes they will need to win a majority, assuming that 29 votes is indeed the threshold (which I could very much be wrong about!)

EDIT: my table did not work :( so here is an image
1737762615175.png


Just to point out a couple of things: first of all, a candidate with 0 votes needed for a majority has, in this model, already locked in their seat and could win despite gaining no further votes. In the right hand column, these candidates have a fully green 0.00%. Conversely, a candidate with more votes needed for a majority than 10, the number I'm estimating to be the number of votes left, is locked out of victory under this model, with a number greater than 100% in the right hand column.

In short: I think Prov faces long odds but still has a chance (as, incidentally, does Caldrasa), JL appears unfortunately to have already lost the face while five candidates are almost guaranteed to win already, and two candidates -- GraVandius and Monkey -- are likely, but not guaranteed, to win.
 
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Very interesting way of looking at this new system, Comfed! I hadn't thought about how each vote also increases the 50% threshold.
 
Very interesting way of looking at this new system, Comfed! I hadn't thought about how each vote also increases the 50% threshold.
That is a very good point, now that I think about it @Comfed. Anyone can feel free to respond to this question; do you think this could spur the use of "holding votes" like we see in presidential elections? For example, a candidate whose election was not guaranteed and hovering around the 50% mark. They could ask some supporters to hold votes that would get them through but knock out someone just behind? Just conjecture.
 
They could ask some supporters to hold votes that would get them through but knock out someone just behind?
That isn’t really how this works. With a max allowable seat limit of 9, there isn’t any reason for strategic voting when a person can vote for as many candidates as they want.
 
They could ask some supporters to hold votes that would get them through but knock out someone just behind?
Well, it wouldn't knock out anyone behind, because you're only competing against the bar. Success in an approval voting election has no adverse impact on any other candidate, and each vote's impact is completely independent.

Now, if you did want to knock someone out of the running, holding votes could be a viable strategy... but you would have to make sure to specifically tell your held voters not to vote for that person.
 
Thank you for your replies, Comfed and JayDee. I will be checking in again about the results right before I head to bed and maybe we'll get Sky back tomorrow for when the election ends.
 
They could ask some supporters to hold votes that would get them through but knock out someone just behind?
That isn’t really how this works. With a max allowable seat limit of 9, there isn’t any reason for strategic voting when a person can vote for as many candidates as they want.
I don't think there's a seat limit.
 
I am going to head off to bed soon and I will hand this off to @SkyGreen if he wants to make any comments tomorrow when the election is over. As of now, 56 votes are in which means there are hardly any votes left to count (if any).

United Vietussia Votes: 32 57.1%
JayDee Votes: 40 71.4%

Caldrasa Votes: 25 44.6%
Monkey Votes: 30 53.6%
John Laurens Votes: 18 32.1%
Comfed Votes: 33 58.9%
Lloenflys Votes: 47 83.9%
GraVandius Votes: 31 55.4%
Malaxa Votes: 33 58.9%

Prov Votes: 25 44.6%

The results are the same as earlier; Prov, JL, and Cal will not make it in at this point. And as Comfed said earlier, there are simply not enough votes left for these any candidates to try sneak a win in. Unless a hurricane of votes come in tomorrow, I will predict we will have a 7 seat senate with the following senators: UV, JD, Monkey, Comfed, Lloen, GraV, and Malaxa.

But before I leave you all, I have invited @HEM to give his thoughts on the election. He had some mighty interesting thoughts he espoused on Discord earlier.

Goodnight, everyone.
 
Kinda wild to me to see JL doing so poorly considering how out front he has been on a couple of judicial cases and their activity.
 
Candidate is principled and makes good suggestions, is active, used the courts to solves things: NO NO MORE SENATE FOR YOU

Candidate who owns the most widely unapproved court judgement: MORE SENATE FOR YOU


Semi-joking aside: I think by showing some friction on Ellenburg’s nomination has hurt JL. The message is clear to future senators:

“ X is an amazing person, they are so lovely and everything is totally fine. No questions from me! Let’s vote asap and make sure NO QUESTIONS. xoxoxo”
 
Candidate is principled and makes good suggestions, is active, used the courts to solves things: NO NO MORE SENATE FOR YOU

Candidate who owns the most widely unapproved court judgement: MORE SENATE FOR YOU


Semi-joking aside: I think by showing some friction on Ellenburg’s nomination has hurt JL. The message is clear to future senators:

“ X is an amazing person, they are so lovely and everything is totally fine. No questions from me! Let’s vote asap and make sure NO QUESTIONS. xoxoxo”
I think JayDee knew there would be some qualms and that why he supplemented his campaign with a very robust GOTV effort. Unfortunately I don’t think JL did the same. A lesson I have learned many times in this region is that if you are not a largely inoffensive legal scholar (Lloen, Mal) you will always have to scrap and fight for elected positions.
 
I wonder what bonkers* idea (ahem executive split lol) will be implemented now that Trump is back.

(Remember that Trump presidencies correlate with failed ideas. See HEM’s post elsewhere)

* I AM NOT TRYING TO BE AN ASSHOLE. FFS THIS IS JUST A LIGHT BRITISH TURN OF PHRASE FOR A LITTLE BIT SILLY. CALM DOWN ON THE QUOTE POSTING.

**THIS IS ALL IN LIGHT HEARTED SPIRIT.
 
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