EBC Live Election Coverage

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EBC Live Election Coverage
The EBC’s Live Coverage of the Senate By-Election
Hosted by Lime, Peeps and Monkey​

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Lime: Hello and welcome to special EBC coverage of today’s Senate by-election. We’ll be here throughout the day bringing you updates about the results, what they could mean for the Senate, what voters think of the results and any reaction from the candidates themselves. Our correspondent Peeps is outside a voting booth in Arnhelm City where the socially distanced queue has been growing all day.

Peeps: That’s right Lime. Voters are excited to cast their ballot in this unexpected by-election and we’re expecting a high turnout today. I’ll be here throughout the day, asking voters what they thought of the campaigns and what they think the result will mean for the region. I’ll also be dashing between the two main campaigns tonight to see their reaction to the results as they come in. I’ll be asking them what went right, what went wrong and what happens next.

Lime: And in the studio, Monkey and a panel of political experts will be analysing the results as they come in and sharing their political wisdom.

Monkey: Hey everyone, I’m in the EBC newsroom joined with a couple of analysts to look at the elections results today. With me today I have Sopo, CSP, and McEntire. We went over what our expectations were the night before the polls opened, and here’s what our panel of political analysts had to say;

Monkey: So it's the night before the polls open, what are the predictions from everyone looking like? I know EBC radio had some coverage on potential predictions, but I'd like to hear what you all think leading into the election. Will it be a sweep by the frontrunner, Malashaan, or do you think Forilian has a chance? What do you think each of the candidates are thinking about this evening? Anything you would do if you were in either of their shoes? What might a good (or poor) performance mean for any of these candidates in the future?"

Sopo: Everything seems to indicate a Malashaan sweep. I think Forilian is hoping for a strong showing against Malashaan so he's not dinged going into the general. He may get some sympathy votes from people who expect Mal to win as well. If I were Forilian I'd probably be doing some gentle GOTV to turn out my base and make sure my voters don't bail. If I'm Mal I have a cocktail. The stakes are low for both. A Forilian loss is expected, a win would be an enormous upset. Even if Mal loses this probably doesn't hurt him in the long run, though I'd certainly wonder why.

CSP: If I'm Forillian I'm looking at this as an opportunity to overperform and move to the upcoming general election from a position of strength. The perception that he "deserves" to get in will be a very real thing working in his favor if he manages to do that. I would be shocked if this race was close but perhaps it's that very perception, if it depresses turnout, that works in Fori's favor.

Monkey: Right, I would mostly agree with what's been said so far. I think having a strong showing, even if it's 30/70 or even 40/60 is key for Forilian. If I were him, I'd be going in with a strong GOTV campaign and hoping to have a good performance tomorrow that could springboard me into a seat in the general election.

Sopo: He just has to be careful not to put people off with an overly aggressive GOTV campaign

McEntire: I will say that we have seen polls be very wrong in the past, usually inflating the vote totals of a more established candidate like Mal. We could see the margin be closer, given that Forilian is a very present and social player. And interestingly, if we look at the recent EBC poll, more people said they wanted to see Forilian in the Senate than said the same for Mal. That could indicate some enthusiasm for Forilian. I would still say Malashaan is favored, but given recent trends a Forilian over-performance would not surprise me.

Monkey: That’s what our panel had to say last night Lime, and we’ll be discussing this election throughout the day as results trickle in.

Lime: Thank you Monkey. It’s sure to be an interesting race today, join us for our first update of the day when initial results start trickling in.

 

[Lime]

Lime: Hello and welcome to the first update of the EBC's live coverage of today's Senate by-election. Early results are suggesting a Malashaan victory, however the margin of victory may not be as great as some were initially expecting. Turnout in this election has been high so far, and poll workers are preparing themselves for a long night. Let's take a look at the results so far.

As we can see both Forilian and Malashaan continue to pick up votes, however Malashaan is doing so at a faster rate than Forilian therefore extending his lead over him. Minor candidate Kameron has so far only received one vote.

Our correspondent Peeps is still outside an Arnhelm voting booth, and Peeps, you've recieved a comment from both the Forilan and Malashaan campaigns?

Peeps: Yes that's right Lime. Forilian provided this comment to me when asked about the results so far: "I’m feeling great about these results! While I’m not leading, it is closer than I expected. I want to wish my fellow candidates good luck, and get out and vote if you haven’t!" And Malashaan has also provided comment saying: "The results look pretty good so far. I've been consistently around the 60% mark since early in polling. That said, an 8 vote lead can quickly evaporate so I encourage my supporters to vote. This is far from a forgone conclusion, and that speaks to the strength of my opponents campaign."

Both campaigns feeling positive right now, how long this will last however is yet to be seen. Back to you in the studio.

Lime: Thanks Peeps. Now let's hop over to our in-studio panel and what they think of the results so far.

CSP: Almost an hour in and we have 31 votes cast. Malashaan leading Forillian by almost 26%. I'm wondering what the threshold is for Forillian to be able to claim a moral victory here. I think 40% of the vote would be a very strong. Less than 30 and it's not going to be usable for him going forward. Anybody disagree?

McEntire: I'd say that as long as he beats what he got in the flash poll, which was 21.7%, that shows at least some Election Day momentum and significant GOTV.

Sopo: Yes, I'd say 30% is respectable here but it doesn't get impressive until 40% or so

McEntire: Regardless, Forilian would probably be a strong contender at the next regular Senate election. Mal's explicit appeal, and the rationale (I think) of many of his voters was that we needed another legal eagle to replace Prim in the Senate. That won't necessarily be the case at the regular Senate election, and I'd predict a large field and a large Senate. Someone like Forilian could look very strong to nab a seat in that situation.

CSP: I think it's sort of interesting that Prim is viewed in that light by so many people. I'm not sure that's the box I would put him in. Prim or no Prim, I think it's obvious that after the last few months the Senate needs some adult supervision.

Sopo: Prim is certainly a workhorse - he gets things done. Mal would immediately become a leader in the Senate, even if the skillset isn't the same, and I think that's where the comparison comes from.

 

[Aexnidaral]

Mal was always going to win this race but I think Fori really has a good turnout for running against someone with as much Star Power (TM) as Mal and shouldn't be counted out for the general. I think when you're running against an opponent who is pretty much semi-guaranteed to win, the best your campaign can hope for (besides, obviously, a miracle) is to "do no harm" and I think Fori's done that, and positioned himself well for the future.

 

[Malashaan]

Mal was always going to win this race but I think Fori really has a good turnout for running against someone with as much Star Power (TM) as Mal and shouldn't be counted out for the general. I think when you're running against an opponent who is pretty much semi-guaranteed to win, the best your campaign can hope for (besides, obviously, a miracle) is to "do no harm" and I think Fori's done that, and positioned himself well for the future.

I think Fori is doing very well. I'm starting to feel confident now based on my lead and number of votes cast total but for the first several hours I was very concerned my lead wasn't large enough to not evaporate quickly. Given the experience difference between us, this definitely shouldn't be seen as a bad result for him. He looks well placed for the next general election to me.

 

[Lime]

Lime: Hello, good evening and welcome to the EBC's second update of today's live coverage of the Senate by-election. More constituencies have been sending in their results and we're getting a clearer picture of the voters decision.

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As the graph shows, Malashaan has built and maintained a substantial lead over Forilian, who has mostly flatlined since initial results came in. Minor candidate Kameron has remained on a single vote, while the Re-open elections option has not received a single vote. If results continue in this trend the EBC expects Malashaan to finish with around 64 percent of the vote, give or take a couple of percentage points, and Forilain winning around 34 percent, again give or take a couple of percentage points. Kameron would win the remaining 2 percent. Based on this forecast, the EBC is now projecting that Malashaan will win this Senate by-election.

Our correspondent Peeps is at Malashaan HQ and we can see the excitement growing amongst the crowd there Peeps.

Peeps: Yes there's a growing sense of victory here at the Malashaan campaign HQ, with the results from constituency after constituency either increasing or maintaining that lead over Forilian. I managed to catch Malashaan and inform him of the EBC's projection and he provided this comment for me. ""Barring and unprecedented surge of late voting, it looks like I'll be returning to the Senate. Forilian ran a good campaign and I look forward to seeing him there soon. He had me nervous for a few hours. I also want to recognize Kameron33 for running as a brand new citizen. I hope to see more from them in future."

I also reached out to the Forilian campaign and managed to have a quick conversation with Forilian informing him of the EBC's projection. Forilian appeared to concede the election to Malashaan stating: "I would like to congratulate Malashaan. At this point I'll admit that the election results are showing that Mal will win barring a miracle, and I will say that Malashaan is a great legislator who can definitely handle the duties of a Senator. However, I still encourage my supporters to vote for me, as every vote matters. I would also like to thank all the voters who came out to vote today. I am not discouraged by these results, and I will be running in the general election."

Lime: Not quite a full concession from Forilian there, making clear he still wants to win as many votes as possible, however he does appear to accept that he will not be elected to the Senate in this by-election. Peeps, thank you.

A reminder for readers, the EBC is projecting that Malashaan will win this Senate by-election with a vote share of around 64 percent. Be sure to join us for our next update where we'll have expert analysis on what Malashaan's victory will mean for the Senate, and on Forilian's announcement that he will run in the upcoming General Election.

 

[Pichtonia]

With 21 votes (at this moment) in a by-election for only one seat, with Mal as one of the opponents, I think Fori has a very strong base if he wishes to run again in the general election. That way, I think neither Mal (as the likely winner) nor Fori will be too unhappy with this election.

 

[Malashaan]

With 21 votes (at this moment) in a by-election for only one seat, with Mal as one of the opponents, I think Fori has a very strong base if he wishes to run again in the general election. That way, I think neither Mal (as the likely winner) nor Fori will be too unhappy with this election.

Agreed. 22 votes was enough in the last general, which had huge turnout. It seems likely Fori will get votes from the 21 who voted for him this time and at least a few others as a second, third, etc. choice in the next general (assuming he runs) so he's in a great position.

 

[Forilian]

With 21 votes (at this moment) in a by-election for only one seat, with Mal as one of the opponents, I think Fori has a very strong base if he wishes to run again in the general election. That way, I think neither Mal (as the likely winner) nor Fori will be too unhappy with this election.

Agreed. 22 votes was enough in the last general, which had huge turnout. It seems likely Fori will get votes from the 21 who voted for him this time and at least a few others as a second, third, etc. choice in the next general (assuming he runs) so he's in a great position.

I’ll just note that 22 votes was not enough in the last general, as Peeps and I both received 26 votes and still lost.

 

[Malashaan]

With 21 votes (at this moment) in a by-election for only one seat, with Mal as one of the opponents, I think Fori has a very strong base if he wishes to run again in the general election. That way, I think neither Mal (as the likely winner) nor Fori will be too unhappy with this election.

Agreed. 22 votes was enough in the last general, which had huge turnout. It seems likely Fori will get votes from the 21 who voted for him this time and at least a few others as a second, third, etc. choice in the next general (assuming he runs) so he's in a great position.

I’ll just note that 22 votes was not enough in the last general, as Peeps and I both received 26 votes and still lost.

You're right. I looked at the wrong election. Oops.

Still, I think it's highly likely you'd get significantly more than 21 votes in a general based on this performance.

 

[Lime]

Lime: Hello and welcome to our final update. The Senate by-election closed today at 15:00 British Standard Time (BST) with Malashaan elected to the vacant Senate seat with 59.6 percent of vote. His competitors Forilian and Kameron, won 36.8 percent and 1.8 percent respectively. The re-open elections option also received 1.8%.

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As the graph above shows, Malashaan had a consistent lead over Forilian and was able to widen it as the day went on. His final vote share (59.6 percent) was slightly lower than what the EBC was predicting he would win (around 64 percent). Malashaan, a veteran of the Senate, is expected to become an immediate leader within the body, which according to opinion polls is suffering from poor approval. Forilian, who has already announced his intention to run in the upcoming General Election is expected to receive a bump in support as a result of his relatively strong showing in this by-election.

That concludes the EBC's live coverage of this Senate by-election. We want to thank our panel for their political wisdom and to you our readers for joining us. I also want to extend my thanks to Monkey and Peeps for joining me and hosting our live coverage.