Early Poll Sizes Up Wide Field Of Potential Candidates

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"Early Poll Sizes Up Wide Field Of Potential Candidates"
HEM
Managing Editor

ENN conducted a poll of 29 respondents that asked citizens their preliminary thoughts on different candidates for the upcoming election for First Minister. After analyzing the results, we have sorted the potential candidates into three groups: The Frontrunners, the Could-Happens, and the Darkhorses. Our sortings are based on a combination of what percent of respondents are considering each candidate as well as each candidate's performance in head-to-head matchups. Because it was implausible to run every speculative candidate against every other single speculative candidate, some candidate may have more matchups than other -- which might be to some prospective candidate's advantage when analyzing...or not.



The "Frontrunners" are candidates who are all competitive, if not outright leaders, in every single matchup they are featured in. They also have commanding super-majorities of citizens willing to at least consider them.

The yardstick by whom all other prospective candidates were measured is, of course, the incumbent DAX. DAX seized the reigns of government after the resignation of First Minister Sopo, who in turn had ascended to office after the departure of First Minister Maowi. 93.1% of the survey respondents would consider DAX for a term in her own right -- an extremely powerful position to be in.

But DAX isn't sitting alone up top. Minister of Communications and Second Minister Istillian also earns high marks, with 79.3% of the region open to voting for him. A head-to-head matchup between DAX and Istillian show an extremely competitive race, and Istillian crucially wins in every single other matchup he is featured.

It's an open question as to whether DAX would be challenged by her own Second Minister, but the third member of this top caste would have no such political loyalty to wrestle with. 86.2% of the those surveyed would be willing to consider Kuramia as First Minister, and critically, Kuramia is the only candidate on the poll who actually beats DAX in a head-to-head matchup -- though by the slimmest of margins:


If she chooses to seek re-election, DAX would be a strong candidate, but not assured of victory. The Achilles Heel in an otherwise formidable polling result is how soft much of DAX's strong support is. In head-to-head match-ups, the percentage of respondents who "strongly support" DAX range from 72.4% against JayDee, to 20.7% against Istillian, down all the way to just 3.4% against Kuramia. Her strength is a mile wide, but plenty of those supporters are willing to toy with other candidates.

All three of these Frontrunners running against any non-Frontrunner would be the favorite in their race.


The "Could-Happens" are candidates who show piques of strength in certain poll questions, but aren't universally strong enough to be surer bets. They generally have between a quarter and a third of respondents considering them, which is a significant drop-off from the Frontrunners.

An important note: The distinction between "Could-Happens" and "Darkhorses" is not as stark as between "Could-Happens" and "Frontrunners". The Could-Happen class is probably book-ended between Olde Delaware on the stronger end, and Bowzin on the weaker end.

The electoral perception of both Olde Delaware and Bowzin are aided by matchups with McEntire -- who is running toward the bottom in respondents who are considering him. Olde Delaware has additional bona fides, with 37.9% of respondents considering him as a candidate -- the best outside of any other of the Frontrunners.


Though the race between Bowzin and McEntire is essentially a tie, Bowzin edges his way up into the higher class based on his performance against DAX, which while not impressive, allows him to show a little more dexterity than McEntire in holding his own in more competitive races.

United Vietussia and Xecrio also fall in this category. Xecrio has limited head-to-head matchups as it's deemed unlikely he'll run with his recent step back from the region, but the 27.6% of Europeians who'd consider him puts him ahead of many other prospective candidates. United Vietussia garners a stronger 34.5% of respondents considering him, but perhaps the more interesting finding is the magnitude of DAX supporters he can move from "strongly support" to "lean" in their head-to-head matchup. From DAX's high of 72.4% who strongly support her against JayDee, United Vietussia manages to swing 24.1% of those respondents from "strongly support" merely "leaning." This is interesting, to say the least.


Finally, the Darkhorses. The Darkhorses are candidates who performed weaker across the board than other candidates -- but that doesn't mean none of them have potential strengths or opportunities.

For instance, McEntire likely leads this group on the basis of his razor-thin edge over Bowzin in their matchup. Mr. Verteger manages to break into solid double-digits against DAX, but the small overall number of people who would consider him (17.2%) is likely holding him back. Interestingly, Verteger supporters while a small group, are mighty. Nearly every single respondent who said they would consider supporting him actually does in his matchup against DAX.

There's not a lot of good news for Cuddles or JayDee. Cuddles has been leading the Radio Ministry for a few months, but has come under criticism in the last few weeks for a lack of regular programming. JayDee was a less active Senator last term, and has focused most of his energies outside of Europeia. Both only are considered by 13.8% of our respondents, and neither break out of single digits in their respective match-ups against DAX.

Overall, we are left with a few questions from this poll. Namely, we'd love to have more information about United Vietussia's performance against other prospective candidates given his interesting result against DAX, and we have no information on how anyone would fare in three-way or four-way races that are certainly a possibility.

There's also the matter of un-polled potential candidates who could enter the fray. Some names mentioned by multiple survey respondents include: HEM, Calvin, and TheNationofthePeople.

While we are confident in our categorizations as it stands, Europeia has a rich history of Darkhorses seizing moments presented to them and surging ahead. It's uncertain what, if any, of these current Frontrunners will run. And even if they do run it's an even bigger question whether the region will find their campaign's and candidacies compelling, or whether they'll look for elsewhere for next term's domestic leader.



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Wooooooow......
 
This is pretty awesome, though I am not going to run. While I remain fully committed to passing meaningful reform in the Senate, I wouldn't turn down a place on someone's ticket.
 
So excited to have this tremendous outpouring support for a First Minister Run! I look forward to a spirited debate of ideas in the upcoming election!
 
Well, this certainly has some interesting results!
 
Lethen run!
 
Theme's some nice results you got there. I'm surprised you put me as a could happen, there's like a 2% chance that I would run.
 
Theme's some nice results you got there. I'm surprised you put me as a could happen, there's like a 2% chance that I would run.
so what i'm hearing is..............there's a chance
 
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