Chasing Gold

Calvin Coolidge said:
I'm surprised cuddles' numbers went down, since I'd say his poll results were stronger than OD's. There was only one response separating them with the Unsure option included, but without it cuddles jumps way ahead. On the whole, it seems that cuddles and OD are basically even, but cuddles has a stronger position with undecideds.
Click to expand...

This was attributed by weighting the results of the without unsure question using the commitment levels indicated by a candidate’s supporters in the following question. OD’s supporters indicated almost across the board strong support, while cuddle’s supporters indicated some form of hesitancy (there was a decent bloc of people that stated that they supported cuddles but indicated they were “somewhat uncommitted”). The raw data is available upon request in the interim, but I’ll try to explain it further later today, I’ve just got some stuff going on this morning and in the early afternoon.
 
Calvin Coolidge said:
I'm surprised cuddles' numbers went down, since I'd say his poll results were stronger than OD's. There was only one response separating them with the Unsure option included, but without it cuddles jumps way ahead. On the whole, it seems that cuddles and OD are basically even, but cuddles has a stronger position with undecideds.
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Here is the breakdown with the specifics based on the w/o unsure question
Commited Ucommited
Calvin 2 5 0.2857142857
Cuddles 2 3 0.4
DAX 5 2 0.7142857143
OD 3 0 1

Edit: It was a pretty table but the forum messed it up apparently and I can't figure out how to fix it.
 
Voter Commitment
TicketCommitted UncommittedPercent Committed
Calvin 2 5 0.2857142857
Cuddles 2 3 0.4
DAX 5 2 0.7142857143
OD 3 0 1
​

Code: 
[table=4, Voter Commitment, 1]Ticket[c]Committed [c]Uncommitted[c]Percent Committed
[c]Calvin [c]2 [c]5 [c]0.2857142857
[c]Cuddles [c]2 [c]3 [c]0.4
[c]DAX [c]5 [c]2 [c]0.7142857143
[c]OD [c]3 [c]0 [c]1[/table]
 
Prim said:
Voter Commitment
TicketCommitted UncommittedPercent Committed
Calvin 2 5 0.2857142857
Cuddles 2 3 0.4
DAX 5 2 0.7142857143
OD 3 0 1
​

Code: 
[table=4, Voter Commitment, 1]Ticket[c]Committed [c]Uncommitted[c]Percent Committed
[c]Calvin [c]2 [c]5 [c]0.2857142857
[c]Cuddles [c]2 [c]3 [c]0.4
[c]DAX [c]5 [c]2 [c]0.7142857143
[c]OD [c]3 [c]0 [c]1[/table]
Click to expand...
Marry me
 
Updated for pre-debate bonzana in order to allow for both debates to occur prior to the final update before the general election.
 
Interesting. I'm surprised OD and Cuddles both went up.
 
Sopo said:
Interesting. I'm surprised OD and Cuddles both went up.
Click to expand...
So OD went up because of relatively strong debate performances by himself and Kura, also his base remained solid, though small. Also I recognize that cuddles went up ever so slightly. This is because cuddles performance in debates was rated well by us and it wasn't as bad relatively as other ratings to cuddles. So the debate performances lifted cuddles too in a weird way that they were not as "bad" relatively to the rest of the candidates as the rest of his previous ratings that factored in.

Additionally, Calvin dosent pass DAX here because his base of support is still a lot softer even if DAX polls slightly under him in the ENN poll.
 
GraVandius said:
Sopo said:
Interesting. I'm surprised OD and Cuddles both went up.
Click to expand...
So OD went up because of relatively strong debate performances by himself and Kura, also his base remained solid, though small. Also I recognize that cuddles went up ever so slightly. This is because cuddles performance in debates was rated well by us and it wasn't as bad relatively as other ratings to cuddles. So the debate performances lifted cuddles too in a weird way that they were not as "bad" relatively to the rest of the candidates as the rest of his previous ratings that factored in.

Additionally, Calvin dosent pass DAX here because his base of support is still a lot softer even if DAX polls slightly under him in the ENN poll.
Click to expand...
you rated his debate performance well enough to improve his chances? Hm, not my impression, but i guess it's qualitative.
 
I guess we'll see what happens in a few hours but I still think it's DAX >> Calvin > OD > Cuddles, but given the amount of soft support who knows.
 
Whoops, didn't mean to double post -- on my phone and accidentally fingered post reply. Wanted to add that I think it'll be interesting to see how votes come in. I got the impression from talking to people privately there are a small number of people who usually vote early but are pretty torn on this election and are holding their votes closer to the end to vote for their more preferred candidate if they're close to being able to make it to a runoff
 
Alright, so we ran the numbers on the impending runoff and currently the percentages stand as follows:

Calvin: 51.87%
DAX: 48.13%

So while DAX is trailing by 4 votes in the initial round. She does benefit from OD/Kuramia's endorsement but it's still largely up in the air where their supporters will land. Additionally, cuddles/bowzin have not made a endorsement so those voters are also up in the air.
 
GraVandius said:
Alright, so we ran the numbers on the impending runoff and currently the percentages stand as follows:

Calvin: 51.87%
DAX: 48.13%

So while DAX is trailing by 4 votes in the initial round. She does benefit from OD/Kuramia's endorsement but it's still largely up in the air where their supporters will land. Additionally, cuddles/bowzin have not made a endorsement so those voters are also up in the air.
Click to expand...
I demand a graph!
 
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