Chasing Gold V: The Campaigns Strike Back
A Joint Collaboration Between The Arnhelm Review and the Europeian Research Institute
Guess who's back, back again. How fitting that our fifth edition features perhaps the most wide open race since we've started this election tracker, right on the heels of our most accurate projection. Surely nothing can go wrong, right? We're back and better than ever, with a revamped election model for the Presidential system based on the ERI's latest poll regarding voter priorities.
Without further ado, away we go.
Election Tracking
Projected Vote Share
Sopo/Monkey - 36.36%
Lloenflys/Pichtonia - 33.64%
McEntire/Malashaan - 30.01%
Projected Chance of Winning
Sopo/Monkey - 49%
Lloenflys/Pichtonia - 31%
McEntire/Malashaan - 20%
Campaign
Platforms
Lloenflys/Pichtonia - Take Me Home
Sopo/Monkey - Lighting the Way
McEntire/Malashaan - The Unity Ticket
Endorsements
Lloenflys/Pichtonia
- Former Arnhelm Mayor Forilian
- Minister of Radio and Senator Darkslayer
- Councillor of Coordination Peeps
- Europeian Cosmopolitan Party
On the eve of election day, our most recent polling confirms what post-Presidential debate polling seemed to indicate: Sopo has pulled into the lead as the frontrunner and will likely go to a runoff with either Lloenflys or McEntire. We've ranked our most likely outcomes for you as we gear up for an exciting 24 (or 48) hours:
Most Likely Scenarios:
1st: Sopo/Lloenflys Runoff
While Sopo has shown a consistent polling lead as of late, he still has failed to secure a majority in any poll, and it is for this reason that we believe that Sopo is most likely to face a runoff against the campaign who has consistently finished a strong second to his campaign: Lloenflys/Pichtonia.
2nd: Sopo Outright Win
Conversely, Sopo has been just shy of securing a majority in recent polling, so it's entirely possible that with an aggressive GOTV campaign and a continued trend of securing undecided votes, Sopo could secure a majority (albeit very narrowly) in the first round.
Less Likely Scenarios:
3rd: Sopo/McEntire Runoff
McEntire was the frontrunner of this race at one point and has maintained a close gap between his campaign and Lloenflys/Pichtonia's. If polling wasn't entirely representative of McEntire's supporters throughout the race, it is possible that McEntire could narrowly edge out Lloenflys and sneak into the runoff.
4th: Lloenflys Outright Win
While Sopo has been leading this race as of late, Lloenflys has been a consistent second place. Both campaigns have split the undecided vote, so if Lloenflys could somehow nab more of this undecided vote and turn some Sopo voters in his direction, he could potentially pull a majority in the first round.
Longshot Scenarios:
5th: Lloenflys/McEntire Runoff
Now we're into our real longshots in our opinion. Let's assume that the electorate is nearly evenly split (though polling would indicate otherwise). Should this happen, it is entirely possible that GOTV could play a role in providing a one or two voter advantage to both Lloenflys and McEntire that would result in a surprising upset of Sopo and create a runoff that could not have been predicted by polling.
6th: McEntire Outright Win
McEntire has lost his lead, though he did still lead this race early on, so it is perhaps in the realm of possibility that McEntire could prove recent polling wrong in favor of earlier results and pull off what would be one of the biggest surprises in Europeian electoral history.
Whatever happens over the next day (or two), the most important thing that you can do at this point is VOTE! Make your voice heard, and we hope you've enjoyed our coverage throughout the campaign. If a runoff occurs, we will provide another update not long after the conclusion of the first round. Otherwise, happy election day!
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