Chasing Gold IV

United Vietussia

United Vietussia

Allegedly Did Some Stuff
Citizen
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Chasing Gold: Part the Fourth
A Joint Collaboration Between The Arnhelm Review and the Europeian Research Institute
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You asked, we listened.

We're back for yet another installment of good ol' election tracking with the upcoming First Minister election. We're now prepared to share our opening numbers with you so you can watch the race progress, deliberate, and speculating about the many ways that you can inch the lines in the direction you want to cause mass chaos (because there's nothing more Europeian than election chaos, right?).

Projected First Round Vote Share:
McEntire/Monkey: 52.27%
Xecrio/Ervald: 47.73%
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Projected Chance of Winning
Disclaimer: This note is much more experimental than our projected vote share number and as such may be subject to large fluctuations and/or inaccuracies while we test it out.
McEntire/Monkey: 56.37%
Xecrio/Ervald: 43.63%
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Platforms
McEntire/Monkey: The Last First Minister
Xecrio/Ervald: Upward and More
Peeps/Forilian: Your Tomorrow, Revamped (dropped out)

Endorsements

McEntire/Monkey
Xecrio/Ervald
This race is one of the closest in recent memory and perhaps calls back to the DAX/Istilian v. Calvin/Rachael election about half a year ago, which ended up being decided in a close Senate vote after a runoff tie. This race will certainly come down to just a few voters, so it's more important than ever that no matter who you support, get out and vote!
 
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Hooray! Excited to see this play out.
 
Massive Props to UV and GraV for doing this! A lot of work goes into it and I'd like to recognise that.

Overall, I'll reiterate what McEntire said; This is awesome.
 
This is cool! Thanks UV and GraV!
 
Hello Hello Hello, just a midnight note for y’all, myself and UV are hard at work accounting for the First Minister Debate earlier today along with other electoral goings on. I just wanted to give the candidates more context on the models so it’s not too discouraging or even encouraging, if the numbers are low ect.

The traditional Chasing Gold model uses qualitative and quantitative assessments of candidates to augment poll results across the whole electorate rather than the captured sample. The issue that we’ve found with using this is that is is additive. In other words regardless of how garbage your platform is the numbers are always positive just lower than the competitors. This in a way imposes a floor where every candidate would generally have at least a 10-15% chance to win, which when it comes down to the core reality of things might not be accurate. Thus, this model is much more in line with predicting vote share as generally no matter how lackluster your platform is you will get at least a few votes from yourself and some loyal supporters, which in today’s electorate is 10-15% support.

The new model, which I like to call the “boxed out model”. This model basically flips the method. If your platform is bad that’s an active negative against you. Additionally if your platform is not the best you are “boxed out” in that category by the candidate who has the best platform. This operates under the theory that if the region is looking for a characteristic in a candidate it is more likely that they will all pick the candidate that does the best in this characteristic rather than split up in averages across the 3. The negatives in this model are what results in <1% chances of winning as if you are completely boxed out and not polling well your chance of victory is super limited.

The final thing to note is that the model really only shows a candidates chance to win as if the election happened now. It does not try to predict trends into the future, rather just uses our best estimates at the time. So if your a candidate who sees this and sees much lower chances to win than you would like, definitely don’t get discouraged. There still are a few days to the election and these numbers could all drastically change.

Finally, thank y’all for reading. It means a lot to me and UV that y’all come out with such excitement each time we do this!
 
It will be great! Thanks, GraV and UV. I hope the enthusiasm around this model, anticipation even, shows both of you how much we appreciate it!
 
Pichtonia said:
I said so in eurochat as well, but it's exciting how endorsement-heavy this race is. I can't remember the last time we had so many endorsements, but then my memory is also not the best.
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Absolutely, I've remarked to a few people that this is probably the most endorsements I've seen in an executive head race in recent memory.
 
I think it's because of the tracker.
 
Sopo said:
I think it's because of the tracker.
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Tbt part of my public endorsement was to see how much I'd move the needle.
 
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