Chasing Gold III: April FM Election

GraVandius

GraVandius

Retired Troll
Pronouns
His Majesty
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Chasing Gold III: April FM Election
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Given we have at least three interesting candidates in the upcoming First Minister Election I've decided that it would be cool to continue to do these for our competitive elections. If your not aware, this was done in November 2019 and February 2019 for other first minister elections. Additionally, given United Vietussia is in fact running for First Minister, I'll be doing this tracker on my own. In terms of the model I've made some tweaks to more appropriately balance the different factors against each other. In the last model as the relative weightings got way out of wack towards the end as we rushed to include things such as debate performance and endorsements. I've attempted to rectify this for this iteration of the model and am interesting to see how it turns out. However, I'll still attach UV's previous disclosure:
disclaimer: this project relies partially on some qualitative numbers, and as such, predictions should be taken with a healthy amount of salt.

If you are interested in the methodology I'd be happy to chit chat with you about it. Additionally, I'll be trying to keep this thread updated with all the relevant election news and we proceed towards April 10th!

I've put together some preliminary number based of the candidates experiences and loosely based off of HEM's early speculation poll here. The poll really only shows initial consideration so these probabilities are really just where the candidates stand as a "concept" rather than as actually candidates. It also does not include platforms as only UV has posted his so far.

Chance of Winning Election
United Vietusia/Kuramia 31.54%
Istilian/Hezekon 46.26%
HEM/Peeps 22.20%

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Platforms
Executing Excellence, Rewarding Results - United Vietusia/Kuramia
Mr. Verteger/HEM - Firm Leadership & Firm Goals
HEM x Peeps
Istillian and Hezekon 2020 - Ist a Beautiful New Day

Debate Transcript
First Minister Debate
 

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Yes! I'm excited for this.
 
This has always been some of my favourite election coverage. I'm excited for its return.
 
This should be good!!
 
These things make elections 10 times more fun, so yay!
 
Those numbers are closer than I thought they would be. Love seeing this project up and running again!
 
Calvin Coolidge said:
Those numbers are closer than I thought they would be. Love seeing this project up and running again!
Click to expand...

Just a note from my past usage of this: normally, the numbers start out close because the model is quite uncertain in the first few days until some polling starts and we have the debates, then we look at platforms and all that jazz.

Which also is a thing: private papers and the EBC, run some polls, this model loves them. :p
 
Calvin Coolidge said:
Those numbers are closer than I thought they would be. Love seeing this project up and running again!
Click to expand...
It’s also worth noting that the model takes into account the Second Minister candidate. So UV and Vert are boosted somewhat significantly by Kuramia and HEM respectively, while Hezekon does not due as much for Istillian in terms of boosting ratings as they are effectively peers. Additionally, without actual polling numbers to really shape the model it’s mostly just qualitative assessments of their resumes at this point, so I wouldn’t expect massive separation given the “less” experienced tickets are well balanced out.
 
Thanks for doing this, Grav. This actually helps candidates run campaigns! I think it's good for people who aren't into numbers and thinking from this pov.

Take note, peeps! These can help you in future campaigns!
 
very excited for this!!
 
Updated to include the platforms so far. Mostly just to see the pretty lines move, as Istilian will likely quickly rebound whenever his ticket puts out his own platform.
 
Come on now, it's a spelling error!
 
Alright, I'll try to actually get today's update out on time. It was obviously a very eventful day, with Mr. Verteger dropping out of the First Minister race for personal reasons. His running mate and founder HEM has pledged to keep on going, thus I left him in the model as half a ticket, which evidently, when combined with other factors included in the model tonight significantly cratered his chances of pulling this off. The other massive factor on tonight's changes is the flash poll I put out earlier today. I've pulled it due to its partial irrelevancy due to the uncertainty of ???/HEM's ticket but still included it overall as we did manage to reach 21 responses by the time I decided to start typing this up.

Forms response chart. Question title: If the Election were held today which candidate would you vote for? . Number of responses: 21 responses.
This first chart shows Istilian with a dominant lead over the rest of the field, garnering over 50% of the admittedly smaller sample size. Additionally, notable is that the Vert/HEM ticket did not pull in any votes before or after the dropout. It will certiantly be interesting going forward if HEM and ??? can garner more interest in their campaign and how that will impact this race.
Forms response chart. Question title: If you had to pick a candidate who would you vote for? . Number of responses: 21 responses.
In further disappointing looks for UV, Istilian manages to garnered the support of 3 out of 4 of the initially undecideds to further bolster his stance at the moment.

Additionally, in terms of the commitment question. UV and Istilian have virtually the same level and degree of commitment in terms of their supporters as about 80% are somewhat to very committed in their choice.

With the small sample size and changing field a lot can evidently get shaken up before election day, so I think the other tickets still definetly have a solid chance at pulling out a victory. We've seen lackluster debate performances and under-enthused get out the votes result in surprise victories on a number of occasions, there is no saying it won't happen here!
 
Great numbers for Istillian, but close enough that a strong UV performance in the debate could make things close, and the complete wildcard of the new HEM and Peeps ticket makes this election still worth watching.
 
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