Anyone's Game: First Minister Polling Results
by Sopo
The Good
Izzy is the frontrunner
"Well he has experience it's experience for the other branch."
With an overall approval rating of 50%, Izzy leads the pack of First Minister candidates. In our ranking question, Izzy also received the most “first choice” votes (11) and the most “second choice” votes (10), indicating a slight lead in the first round and strength in a potential runoff. His running mate, Prim, also ties with Pichtonia and Winged Bear for highest overall approval rating among all candidates (75%) while having the highest percentage of “strongly approve” ratings (46.9%). Izzy's weaknesses are a lack of experience on the domestic side of the executive and a platform light on details, but so far voters seem willing to overlook those. Positioning themselves as a "unity ticket," Izzy/Prim is uniquely positioned to win over both reformers and moderates given they were two of the loudest voices on each side of the issue.
Recombis is punching above his weight
"Who? I've never seen Recombis involved before."
Though many respondents were skeptical of Recombis (31.3% approval, 34.4% disapproval, 34.4% no opinion) and questioned his experience and involvement in the region to date, he ties Punchwood for “first choice” votes in our ranking (8 votes) and could potentially face Izzy in a runoff. Even better? This poll was taken before Recombis posted his platform, but Punchwood’s was already up. A lot of people have already made up their minds about Punchwood, but Recombis still has time to bring “no opinion” respondents into his camp. He needs to dispell the idea that he’s not up to the challenge--his solid platform and popular running mate may help him do that.
The running mates are popular
"That person is ok"
With the exception of GraVandius, who finds himself with a dismal 31.3% approval, each candidate for Deputy First Minister (Prim, Pichtonia, and WingedBear) has an impressive 75% approval rating. WingedBear has the highest disapproval rating of the top three at 12.5%, which is a far cry from GraV’s 46.9% disapproval. Izzy, Punchwood, and Recombis did a great job choosing running mates that complement their strengths and weaknesses, and respondents seem to agree. Now, if the running mates are popular, what about the ticket toppers? That brings us to…
The Bad
The candidates are unpopular
"What's he done in the ministries?"
As mentioned above, Izzy has the highest approval rating at 50%. That means only half the respondents approve of him as a candidate. And it gets worse from there. Punchwood comes in second at 43.8%, followed by Recombis at 31.3%. Rand brings up the rear with a disastrous 25% approval rating from respondents. Each candidate also faces significant disapproval ratings, starting with Rand at 50% disapproval (and 25% of that is strong), followed by Punchwood at 43.7%, Recombis at 34.4%, and Izzy at 31.3%. None of the candidates are particularly well-liked, especially in comparison to their running mates. An argument could be made that each ticket would be more successful if flipped--and that’s not going to help anyone. The bright side is that each ticket seems to be in the same boat in that sense.
Punchwood is underperforming
"Punch has the experience, but I don't know if he has the temperament"
The Punchwood camp should be very concerned that Recombis, someone with a lower overall approval and much less experience, is tieing them in the first choice rankings and actually beats them out as a second choice (9 votes for Recombis to 6 for Punchwood). Though Punchwood has experience and put out a solid platform, he’s fighting a perception that he doesn’t have the temperament to be First Minister. Many respondents chose a relative unknown over the well-known Punchwood. Punchwood isn’t out of the fight yet, but he’ll need to convince voters that he’s level-headed enough for the job and/or hope for a gaffe from Recombis to ensure he gets into a runoff.
The Ugly
Rand/GraVandius might be doomed from the outset
“Why is he running? You can't just come out of no-where after a long stretch of inactivity and run for a major position in the region.”
One commenter likely sums up the issue the Rand/GraVandius (GravRandius?) ticket is having. After a long absence from active participation in the region, Rand is faced with only 25% approval and a whopping 50% disapproval. Though GraV has been more present in the region, he doesn’t fare much better at 31.3% approval and 46.9% disapproval. This ticket also has the lowest number of first choice votes (3) and the highest number of fourth choice votes (14) in our ranking. The silver lining for Rand is that his platform wasn't posted at the time of this poll and he may be able to pick up some ground if it's well-received.
The Conclusion
All-in-all, we have a highly contested election with four (somewhat) equally matched tickets that is all but sure to go to a runoff. While there is a clear frontrunner, Izzy only enjoys a slight lead over Punchwood and Recombis, and criticisms of his light-on-details platform may not have fully materialized at the outset of this poll. All the candidates have a lot of hard work ahead of them to convince voters that they deserve to be Europeia’s first First Minister, but Rand clearly has the toughest road ahead of him. It’s still anyone’s game, and a major “get out the vote” effort will likely be critical to the success of each ticket. Each voter should be sure to do their part and read each platform to make an informed decision on election day this Friday.
30 Responses
(2 incomplete responses were removed)
First Choice
Izzy - 11
Punchwood - 8
Recombis - 8
Rand - 3
Second Choice
Izzy - 10
Punchwood - 6
Recombis - 9
Rand - 5
Third Choice
Izzy - 6
Punchwood - 9
Recombis - 7
Rand - 8
Fourth Choice
Izzy - 3
Punchwood - 7
Recombis - 6
Rand - 14
(2 incomplete responses were removed)
First Choice
Izzy - 11
Punchwood - 8
Recombis - 8
Rand - 3
Second Choice
Izzy - 10
Punchwood - 6
Recombis - 9
Rand - 5
Third Choice
Izzy - 6
Punchwood - 9
Recombis - 7
Rand - 8
Fourth Choice
Izzy - 3
Punchwood - 7
Recombis - 6
Rand - 14
