ACE Endorsement Poll Analysis
By PhDre
10 candidates ran for six Senate office in the January 2016 General Election. Six were members of the Action Coalition of Europeia (ACE), which has 21 members as of January 22nd, 2016. The ACE endorsed six candidates for office - those same six candidates constitute the 53rd Senate of Europeia. ACE's perfect endorsement record in the January elections may have driven results, or perhaps ACE's endorsements served as as a sort of large poll of Europeian citizens that simply forecasted the election of Sopo, Aex, Calvin, Drecq, JGlenn, and GraV. In order to better understand the impact of endorsements on ACE and independent voters, EBC ran a poll earlier this month.
26 citizens responded to the poll. 15 (57 %) of respondents were members of ACE. This means that a significant majority of the ACE party responded to the EBC poll. Perhaps ACE members are also more politically active as a result of party membership - on the other hand, politically active members may naturally be driven towards party membership. Highlighting the politically involved-ness of ACE respondents, 13 (87 %) of ACE members voted in the Presidential election. 7 (64 %) of non-ACE respondents voted in the Kraken-NK Presidential election. Politically active members of Europeia tend to respond to polls more often than non-politically active members, and ACE members are overrepresented in this survey. Another explanation is that ACE members were overrepresented in this poll due to the poll's subject matter - ACE's endorsements during the Senate election.
In all, 15 (57 %) respondents indicated that party endorsements had no impact on their vote in the Senate election. However, party endorsements might serve two roles - to shore up support within the party, and to sway undecided independent voters. In the second case, ACE's endorsements seem to have had little impact. 9 (81 %) of non-ACE members indicated that ACE's endorsement of candidates had no impact on their vote. Furthermore, 6 ( 40 %) of ACE members indicated that ACE's endorsement had no impact on their vote, and in total 10 (67 %) of ACE members indicated that ACE's endorsement either had no or little impact on their vote. While these results may be discouraging for ACE, as it suggests a subdued effect on voter behavior, it should be noted that a minority of respondents, 6 (23 %) stated that ACE's endorsement did impact their vote to some extent.
While ACE seems to have had at least a muted effect on voter behavior, it should be noted that endorsing a candidate is not a risk-free proposition for political parties according to poll respondents. A healthy 12 (45 %) of respondents indicated that a party is at least somewhat responsible for election outcomes. Results do not significantly change based on party affiliation. ACE members should be encouraged that party endorsements are seen as impactful by Europeia, but a less successful election cycle for ACE could result in diminished prestige as EBC poll respondents suggest.
EBC also asked poll respondents whether the introduction of a hypothetical second party would impact the weight of endorsements. Surprisingly for ACE, 2 (13 %) of ACE members indicated they were “ACE Strong.” Almost half of ACE members indicated that endorsements have no effect on their voting behavior, and another 6 (40 %) suggested that a second party's endorsements could possibly sway their vote. ACE party member responses suggest that the party is vunerable to a potential second party, and that members might be swayed by hypothetical second party endorsements.
Non-ACE members were not swayed by the endorsements of a hypothetical second party - a full 9 (81 %) of these respondents indicated that endorsements do not impact them. With a stubborn independent field, it may be time to reevaluate ACE's endorsements and their impact on the General Election.
From the EBC poll results, it seems clear that independent voters are not significantly swayed by party endorsements - by ACE or by a hypothetical second party. ACE members also stated that that ACE's party endorsement had little or no effect on their vote. However, ACE members were much more likely to consider a hypothetical second party's endorsements in a General Election.
It is my opinion that without a clear set of policies for ACE members to fall behind, ACE's endorsements did not play a significant role in the Senate elections. ACE members appear to be more willing to consider party endorsements than independents, who tend to be older members of Europeia. These members in turn have seen the negative impacts of party squabbles in the rise and fall of the NCP, which is the boogeyman of political parties in Europeia.
A retort to my contention - that ACE's endorsements had little impact on the composition of the 53rd Senate - would be that ACE was a perfect 6/6 in endorsing Senate candidates. This is a fair critique, however I would suggest that the nature of the endorsement poll and ACE's large membership simply foretold the outcome of the election. The primary, which mirrored the General Election in that each member voted for up to six candidates to receive an endorsement from ACE, saw significant turnout as almost 120 votes were cast. The General Election saw approximately 260 votes cast, so the ACE primary can be roughly thought of as a poll which perfectly forecast the outcome of the Senate race.
Until ACE is able to keep a viable Independent candidate out of the Senate in favor of an ACE party member, it is hard to consider ACE party endorsement a significant factor in Senate Election. However, if a secondary political party appears, data suggests that ACE members are willing to consider second party endorsements. The rise of a second party could result in party endorsements having higher stakes in future election cycles.
The raw data used in this article is available here. The EBC is currently running an end-of-term poll of the Kraketopia Administration - please consider responding here.
