A Better Method: How Long Does It Take To Become President?

[GraVandius]

A Better Method: How Long Does It Take To Become President?​

Hello all, while I did do an update to the Original Version of this article only about a month ago, the esteemed writer of the Panda's Pen Calvin Coolidge pointed out that the method of using join date for that article was inherently flawed. Thus when Calvin put out this elite ovation article he used the better method of citizenship application date and was kind enough to share that data with me, thus making this article a lot easier to make. So a huge shout out to Calvin at the top here.

In total switching over to Citizenship Application date decreased the total time to presidency by 2052 days total. Bellow you can see everyone who benefited. Clearly NES received the most significant benefit with over two years being wiped from their total time. A bunch of people ended up being about one day difference between when they created their forum account and when they applied for citizenship.

In addition to switching over to citizenship I tried to bring down our outliers to their real approximate time by removing the huge gaps in activity (greater than one year). By subtracting the date they reapplied from the date they lost citizenship we can more accurately see how much time in Europeia had to be put in before they were elected to our top office. The people with the gaps were Aex, Rand and Drexlore with over 3000 total days removed between just the 3 of them.

In the revised chart above you can see these changes to the method had a drastic impact on positioning overall. Swakistek, previously 5th is now first for time to Presidency. NES goes from 4th all the way down to 15th. Notably, Rand only goes from second to third.

Type	Old Method	New Method
With Outliers	720	593
Without Outliers	668	627

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In the above table you can see the huge impact this method change caused. For one dropping the outliers now raises the average as the outliers are now entirely people who reach the "Presidency" by ascending from the Vice-Presidency, the vast majority took less than the average. All in all this drops the average time to "Presidency" from two years to about a year and a half.

Above you can see the days to "Presidency" over time. The line represents a moving average as opposed to a regression analysis used last time. This kinda of shows the that from late 2017 to early 2019 most of our new leaders had an exorbitantly high time to high office that was double or even almost tipple the average at the time. It has been suggested that this bump, similar to the bump following the election of Anumia in 2010 is the result of people waiting out the multiple terms of a prolific leader. Overtime, I think I've become more and more convinced of that theory.

Anyway thanks for reading yet another piece by the ERI. Additionally, I'm thinking of trying something new with this outlet and that is a regular release schedule! I'm going to try to get articles out on a by-weekly basis, hopefully every other Saturday. I have a bit of a backlog of article ideas and hopefully setting up a timeline with help get them done and out to my wonderful readers! Though if you have any research topics you would like me to look into definetly reach out via DM and let me know!

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[Monkey]

very interesting GraV, great work on this article!

 

[Sopo]

As always, fascinating stuff.

 

[Calvin Coolidge]

This list looks a lot more accurate, great update!

 

[Maowi]

Nice data crunching!! This is cool stuff