[euro538ia] PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION LIVEBLOG



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EURO538IA ELECTION LIVEBLOG
Europeia Decides, and the EBC posts


Palace of the People, Oval Room - It's the eve of election night, and Europeians are eagerly awaiting the opening of polls. Previous EBC coverage of the race has reported that the candidates were virtually tied going into the text debate held on Wednesday, January 18th.

Both candidates have released platforms which you can check out here:

Endorsements are few and far between so far, matching the quiet mood of the election so far. Olde Delaware appears to have picked up Klatonia and Darcness, while Lloenflys remains unendorsed as of this post. Whether the strategy is to hold endorsements until just before polls open, or if candidates have not yet begun to give their best puppy eye look to their fellow Europeians, remains to be seen.

Stay tuned with EURO538IA liveblog throughout election day as we bring you updates as Europeia Decides.

Prorgramming note: there will be an Europeia Presidential Election liveshow at 6:30 PM EST on 1/20/2023.

Edit: Also note that posts in this thread may be edited by the Minister of Communications (me) for formatting.
 
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I feel like referendum has been discussed and debated more than the presidential election. That should tell you the current enthusiasm of the voter base.

Our early voting is pretty concerning in comparison to past elections. You would think with two potential first-time presidents running, especially with the F/S update set to launch soon, we would have a healthy stream of enthusiastic early voters. I think the early voting numbers show that enthusiasm is down, at least right now.

It is possible for OD to make a comeback, but it's going to be difficult at the pace in which votes are coming in. OD is going to need to see some movement of voters towards his campaign within the next three hours, or this election could potentially get out of hand.

I don't think this election will decide the F/S direction. I think one of the things OD might kick himself about should he lose this election is not making F/S the premier issue of this campaign -- activity seems to have taken that spot.[/hr][/hr][/hr][/hr]
 


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One other thing I want to talk about is exactly when polls are opened. @PhDre , PA mentioned that OD was not online in the beginning hours of this election but Lloen was running active GOTV efforts. How big of an influence do you believe the start time of polls have on the success/failure of candidates? Are candidates potentially disadvantaged from not being able to start their vote-searching in the beginning hours of Election Day, as their opponents could find those votes first?

I am also pretty interested in the flurry of endorsements we have seen in the last twelve hours. I'm curious why neither campaign opted to push this hard for endorsements a little bit earlier, such as immediately following the debate, to gain some momentum heading into Election Day. With so many endorsements coming in now, their impact almost feels distilled.
 


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Thank you both for your contributions - let's dig into it.

I've only recently fully caught up on the election and debate, but I'm wondering if this election will also decide the F/S path for our region. That's one of the major things the candidates disagree on and I'm fascinated to see how that'll impact the rest of the vote.
This is a good question, but I have to think that the answer is probably not. Voters didn't make a big deal about F/S and Lloenflys notably walked back his previous more hardline stance on Stronghold, going so far as to say that he had been assured that our treaty network was now prepared for Frontier, if I recall correctly. I think that walk back is more telling than anything, and suggests that even formerly vocal pro-Stronghold folks are reevaluating Europeia's position given our newfound strength in Foreign Affairs. I also think that some comments by NES were exciting (to me) and perhaps to candidates - in a recent EBC radio show he desecribed the F/S update as possibly the biggest in the history of the game and a great opportunity - so I think that a hardline stance in favor of the status quo would be totally reckless from a savy political campaign at this point.

I feel like referendum has been discussed and debated more than the presidential election. That should tell you the current enthusiasm of the voter base.
One source told me that they heard from multiple people that their enthusiasm to vote in this election was quite low - I'm not sure how we can fix that or if it is something to be fixed. But it's remarkable that very few folks were willing to step into the political void created by President Icarus saying she would not seek reeelection. Kudos to both Olde Delaware and Lloenflys for stepping into that void and giving it their all throughout the election cycle.

PA mentioned that OD was not online in the beginning hours of this election but Lloen was running active GOTV efforts. How big of an influence do you believe the start time of polls have on the success/failure of candidates? Are candidates potentially disadvantaged from not being able to start their vote-searching in the beginning hours of Election Day, as their opponents could find those votes first?

This is fascinating, and perhaps in the marginal election it would make a difference! I do think that an election that starts in various timezones could see different "momentum" build based on where playerbases support various candidates, or who is online at the lucky moment when polls open. You could argue that's all part of the game, and that candidates should be ready to get going the entire day. At the same time, I have to think that's another argument in favor of private polls. A source close to the Lloenflys campaign told me that endorsements were not being sought out until the momentum narrative started (when OD picked up some "early" endorsements just before polling opened). With open voting results, is that another reason for endorsements?

And have endorsements gone too far? I love that folks are finally getting involved in the election, but I wish that more than a fraction of those making endorsements had also posed questions to the candidates! I mean come on, how can platforms and the entire campaign be a premier even if your first public contribution to the election is a post-vote-opening "I am voting for candidate X!"
 


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@Darcness chimes in regarding endorsements:
Endorsements historically have had mild effect on voters over the past half-decade of Europeia's history. In my very first ever Europeian Presidential Election, endorsements weighed on my vote; I knew that I didn't know enough about the region to make an informed decision, but I did have a grasp on who the experts were. But that's a rare case. If we were a more politically factionalized region then they'd possibly have more effect, but we aren't. They are, at best, tiebreakers in the mind of voters.

The great debate of ideas is what we pride ourselves on here in Europeia. It is our raison d'être. Why would we let someone else's opinion affect our own? On the other hand, even if the effect is minimal, it is still an effect, and our elections are as competitive as they come. Why leave any potential advantage, no matter how small, on the table?
 


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This seems as good a time as any to touch base with our campaigns. I've got Vice Presidential candidates with me now... @Kuramia and @Sopo , how is the race looking so far? How are you feeling at this point in the day? 42 votes are in - are you satisfied with turnout.. are there voters out there you can reach? And how concerned are you with low turnout and its impact on the next 70 days should you take office?
 
Hello, PhDre. Thank you for having me. I'll be frank - we're down, but we're not out yet. I know we still have some voters out there. Will it be enough? I don't know. Either way, we've put our best foot forward in engaging with voters. My hope is that we get to ~60 votes, and I'd be happy with that. If we're under 55, it's not great. That would really reinforce the need to be out there engaging with our newer citizens and those who are just hanging out on the RMB. How do we bring them into the fold and get them involved in our elections? Outreach is a great first step, and I hope Lloen will consider embracing that as well should he win.

I'm proud of our campaign, and, win or lose, I'm glad I took this leap with OD. He's worked really hard to get here, and I know he'd work hard as president too.
 
Turning now to the Senate for the reactions of Senate Speaker @GraVandius and Senator @Boisenburg . How do you put this race into context - it's certainly a close one so far! Any thoughts as we turn into the third hour of election day?
Being a newer member of the region, I have a pretty limited perspective on historical elections. This is only the second presidential election that I have been around for. If I’m comparing to the November 2022 Presidential Election, it certainly hasn’t been as contentious. Like others have mentioned, this is likely due to the deeply rooted respect that exists between the two candidates. I personally think that it would have been a bit more interesting if they had brought a little more teeth to the debate, and to their campaigns overall.
And have endorsements gone too far? I love that folks are finally getting involved in the election, but I wish that more than a fraction of those making endorsements had also posed questions to the candidates! I mean come on, how can platforms and the entire campaign be a premier even if your first public contribution to the election is a post-vote-opening "I am voting for candidate X!"
This is a great point, and makes me wonder if this election is more about personality than it is policy. Maybe there is a ton of discussion happening behind the scenes between candidates and voters that we aren’t seeing? I also think that this flurry of last minute endorsements may have a little something to do with the fact that the polling for this race indicated that it was going to be very close. Perhaps supporters of each campaign took this opportunity to spotlight their candidate right before polls opened so that it would be fresh in the minds of voters.
I feel like referendum has been discussed and debated more than the presidential election. That should tell you the current enthusiasm of the voter base.
I have to admit I was very disappointed when it became clear that a pro-PA candidate wasn’t going to stand. The PA is something that clearly has a lot of support. Lloen has walked a fine line between voicing his disapproval of the PA, and reassuring everyone that he’s not going to be a thorn in it’s side either as a Senator or as President. OD has been a little harsher with his criticisms of the PA. Perhaps the region is gravitating towards the anti-PA candidate that has been a little softer on the proposed body? I hesitate to say that this has had any substantial impact on the vote, but maybe there is something there?
 
Hi, PhDre! Excited to be called on. It's a flurry of activity here at the campaign headquarters of presidential candidate Lloenflys. I'm not too surprised that the number of voters is low right now. After all, even if it's Friday, it's still a work day for many people. I think we're going to see votes trickle in until later tonight, when the American east coast gets off work and has time to sit in front of their computer and make a decision.

I will say, the power of GOTV cannot be denied, even as some eschew the tradition. From what I've experienced, it's not just quantity but quality that can win the day. Right now, our goal is to lengthen the lead we've acquired because we've got no illusions that this will be an easy win, even without the polls to tell us that.

We got a little over 60 voters last election, and I'm expecting we'll reach around that same amount this time around. I don't think our activity levels have lowered since then. That's about twenty more voters our campaign will have to reach, so the stakes are real. I will say, both campaigns are giving it their all. I, and I believe I can speak for Lloenflys as well, are happy that the OD/Sopo campaign is giving us a run for our money!
 


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Thank you all for your contributions! As a note, the race is now 27-18 in favor of Lloenflys. Two votes have been cast in the last two hours, and turnout is currently 45 voters.

My hope is that we get to ~60 votes, and I'd be happy with that. If we're under 55, it's not great. That would really reinforce the need to be out there engaging with our newer citizens and those who are just hanging out on the RMB. How do we bring them into the fold and get them involved in our elections? Outreach is a great first step, and I hope Lloen will consider embracing that as well should he win.

I do wonder whether there is interest in this sort of engagement - clearly it didn't resonate strongly with voters, but there is more activity in a few hours of the RMB than there was in the week leading up to election day. If we could take some of that wind and put it into the sails of our offsite community, I do think that would make a big difference! I have some ideas for onsite engagement that I've mentioned to folks, might as well spill the beans here! I think we should be celeberating Europeia's democratic process with onsite election festivals. Europeians should be bombarded with WFE countdowns to election day, and the flag should update with a countdown every day as we approach The Big Day. We should be driving folks to register as citizens and get engaged in the election process, and we should have a special discord channel for #election-day that we can drive new citizens and livebloggers to. Let's make Election Day in Europeia a really special day to celebrate! Or not... We can just keep doing this instead.

I personally think that it would have been a bit more interesting if they had brought a little more teeth to the debate, and to their campaigns overall.
WRONG. Terrible idea.

Just kidding. I do think that enthusiasm could have been higher if candidates had been more willing to differentiate themselves. I think Lloen was the candidate who really went for "Hey, I'm just like Icarus except I'm not her so vote for me if you liked Icarus." It seems like without the ability to vote for Icarus, citizens went ahead and cast their votes for the other-Icarus in the race. That is a boring but very successful strategy in this election, apparently!


It's a flurry of activity here at the campaign headquarters of presidential candidate Lloenflys. I'm not too surprised that the number of voters is low right now. After all, even if it's Friday, it's still a work day for many people. I think we're going to see votes trickle in until later tonight, when the American east coast gets off work and has time to sit in front of their computer and make a decision...

We got a little over 60 voters last election, and I'm expecting we'll reach around that same amount this time around. I don't think our activity levels have lowered since then.
I like the enthusiasm! I hope you're right, and there are plenty of folks who are excited to vote when they get off from their jobs and log onto their mobile devices they have access to at their job... I don't know, I have to say I'm not as optimistic about a big surge in turnout. I dont know how previous elections have gone, but we do have 98 citizens so in theory there are a lot of votes that are outstanding. In practice, are those folks going to tune into this election? I hope so, but I do think that activity has not picked up since November 2022, so I'm not sure I would expect more than 64 voters to show up.

At the 6 hour mark, we are 15 votes behind the June 2022 Presidential Election (total turnout 72) and between 6-9 votes behind the November 2022 Presidential Election (total turnout 64) giving us a total expected turnout of about 57, 58 ish. Of course, Maricopa county could come in late and a bunch of Honored Citizens could roll up at any time, but that's my best guess.

Let's see what that means for the Olde Delaware campaign ... sorry folks - I am going to rain on some parades. Because that's what happens when the data is out there, you get someone to tell you the weather even if it makes the race less excited than a closed poll

With 58 voters expected, 45 in so far, and a 9 vote margin, OD needs 11 of the next 13 votes to tie. To win in a 58 vote eleciton he needs 12 /13 (92%). For the last few hours (frankly, since fairly early on) it looks like OD needs a sizable portion of outstanding votes to have any chance of staying competitive, particularly given low expected turnout. This is the devestating consequences of having a moderate gap in a low turnout election - each and every vote (and maybe endorsement!) matters so much. The gap is big for the state and dynamic of the race. I won't say it's over because it's never over until polls close but you got to be sweating (and getting ready to make me some cocktails) if you're in the Olde Delaware / Sopo camp.
 


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@Writinglegend , I want to expand on this a bit:
I don't think this election will decide the F/S direction. I think one of the things OD might kick himself about should he lose this election is not making F/S the premier issue of this campaign -- activity seems to have taken that spot.

Do you think that activity was the premier issue of this election? I'm not sure the OD chicken little activity line resonated with voters in the way that you might expect given turnout and activity over the last two-three terms. What could have (or still could) change here for the campaign? Are there takeaways here about unpopular messages - even if they do have more than a grain of truth to them?
 
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