June Senate Foreign Affairs Poll Results and Analysis






June 2019 Senate Foreign Affairs Poll Results and Analysis
A Divisive Issue

Written by Astrellan







For the discussion about these topics, please see the Senate discussion thread.

(June 2, 2019) - With the incredibly heated issue of foreign affairs regulations sitting in the Senate, the EBC ran a poll to determine the public's thoughts on the issue. Citizens were asked if they supported the idea of certain ambassadorial confirmations, foreign affiliation disclosures, which roles should require said disclosures, and which drafts currently proposed in the Senate they would support. The EBC is happy to say that 31 Europeans responded to the poll with a variety of different results and split issues. Without further ado, here they are:

The Ideas

One of the least polarising issues in this poll, 61.3% of respondents were against the idea of ambassadorial confirmations, with a whopping 48.4% choosing the "Strongly Against" option. Some speculation has to be made about these results, but a driving factor could be the current state of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (which employs Europeia's ambassadors). For a while now, the ministry has been seeing multiple resignations and a shortage of incoming ambassadors to share the workload. This has lead to many ambassadors taking on multiple regions and being understaffed. Concerns about creating further issues by holding ambassadors to certain regions to high standards may have factored into such a negative response to this idea.

One of the biggest questions coming off this poll was the views on the matter of foreign affiliation disclosures. Though a very polarising issue, a tentative majority of 52.6% of respondents said they were for disclosures. We also see a total of 42% of people who are against this idea with the rest being neutral. Interestingly, 76.9% of people who were against this idea entered the option "Strongly Against" while only 50% of respondents who were for this idea put down the "Strongly For" option. It can be inferred that those who disagree with this idea do so strongly and have strong reasons to do so, a contrast to the evenly split "for" side. Many concerns have been brought up on this issue - concerns about privacy, about opening people up to harassment, about the little practical benefit the bill could give. Despite this, it seems advantages like increased information for the electorate has swayed a majority of respondents on this debate.

The Positions

Breaking away from the norm of the EBC, an optional multiple-choice question was added to this poll. This question asked respondents - if they supported the idea of foreign affiliation disclosures - to choose which offices should have forced disclosures. There were 24 responses for this particular question, two of which were "N/A" and so will be discounted from the results. Even with the modified amount of 22 responses, that is - mathematically - too many responses. The question explicitly states "if you support the above idea" and 13 respondents (42% of 31) do not -- therefore there should be 18 responses. To accommodate for this, the table below includes both the total substantial 22 responses and the actual 18 valid responses (as 4 people who voted against foreign affiliation disclosures still answered this question).

The 22 substantial responses gave these results. The number next to the office is the number of respondents who chose that option.
  • Chief of State / Deputy Chief of State - 19
  • First Minister / Deputy First Minister - 16
  • Councillors of State - 12
  • World Assembly Delegate - 11
  • Director of the Europeian Intelligence Agency - 10
  • Senators - 9
  • Members of the Cabinet - 8
  • Justices - 7
  • Attorney General - 6
  • Citizens' Assembly Chair - 6
The 18 valid responses gave these results. The number next to the office is the number of respondents who chose that option.
  • Chief of State / Deputy Chief of State - 16
  • First Minister / Deputy First Minister - 14
  • Councillors of State - 12
  • World Assembly Delegate - 11
  • Director of the Europeian Intelligence Agency - 9
  • Senators - 9
  • Members of the Cabinet - 7
  • Attorney General - 6
  • Citizens' Assembly Chair - 5
  • Justices - 5

Looking at both of these sets of responses, it is clear that the Chief of State (CoS) / Deputy Chief of State (DCoS) and the First Minister (FM) / Deputy First Minister (DFM) are the two most popular options for those who want foreign affiliation disclosures. For the CoS and their deputy, this makes sense. The former is the most senior foreign-facing official in Europeia and represents the entire region abroad. Moreover, they both manage the Council of State - another high scoring option - which contains all the foreign-facing ministries in the region. Foreign affiliation disclosures, therefore, make sense for these roles and this is an idea brought up many times in the Senate. For the FM and the DFM, a factor could be that they - along with the CoS/DCoS - are the most powerful roles in the region, making up the chief executive. This reason could be why they would require forced disclosures

Two interesting options that received a lot of support were the World Assembly Delegate and the Director of Europeian Intelligence (DEIA). These offices were previously unmentioned in conjunction with the idea of forced disclosures until Rand's draft in the Senate (though that didn't appear to have much of an effect on the results ... see below). Despite this, it is clear to see why they achieved the level of support they did. The World Assembly Delegate has the Delegate Nation in the NationStates region. With this, they exercise their vote which counts for hundreds of endorsements and is a very important way for Europeia to push her ideas into the wider world. It is also a completely foreign-focusing office and so mandated disclosures is an easy option. Moreover, the DEIA is responsible for uncovering and investigating possible threats to Europeia and her allies, and then reporting them to either the FM or the CoS. The role, while perhaps not fully focused towards the foreign side, has major external responsibilities and so it also makes sense why they got the result they did.

A role which scored the absolute lowest on both sets of responses is the Citizens' Assembly Chair. The office is responsible only for the management of the Citizens' Assembly (CA) and has no foreign-related duties. Moreover, the CA itself cannot pass legislation into law so it has little actual power at this current time (apart from passing legislation to the Senate). This means that the CA Chair is not a powerful role and has little to do with what goes on outside Europeia. Forcing foreign affiliation disclosures on this role does not make a lot of sense and many respondents chose not to include this option. Similar examples also include Justices - who are only responsible for cases inside Europeia, and the Attorney General - who acts as the state's main prosecutor and advises the executive.

The Drafts

With a huge 38.7% of responses being neutral/unsure, Speaker of the Senate Aexnidaral's draft is definitely the least polarising of the two. However, the draft itself failed to garner a majority "for" response with 38.7% of respondents being against the legislation compared to only 22.6% who were for it. This itself is surprising, as the draft mandates foreign affiliation disclosures for the Chief of State and their deputy, along with the First Minister and their deputy - the two most popular roles for forced disclosures as previously established. A possible reason for these results is that not enough offices were included within the draft for mandated disclosures. Even so, this is probably not the case as explained in the analysis of the results for Rand's draft below. It is unclear what other factors could have turned such a result.

A huge contrast to his colleague's draft above, Senator Rand's draft in the Senate gets an overwhelmingly high 64.5% of respondents against it, with a whopping 48.4% of responses being "Strongly Against" options. On top of this, 9.7% of respondents were "neutral/unsure" about the draft and the rest (25.8%) were for this draft. Though scoring a higher "for" response than the other draft, the difference in percentage between those who agree and those who disagree is a lot higher. Rand's draft includes mandated disclosures for every elected office as well as the Council of State, World Assembly Delegate, DEIA, and Attorney General. Though ticking off every box on the options list, it appears that this piece of legislation could face the opposite problem of Aexnidaral's draft - it mandates too many offices where it may not be appropriate.

Overall, it is an interesting product that - though gaining a majority "for" response from respondents when thinking about the idea of foreign affiliations disclosures - neither of the two bills garner the same response. It appears that the legislation that the majority wants is not yet written or proposed, or that some other factor is twisting the results of these two drafts.

The Comments

Giving respondents a chance to lodge their thoughts, an open-ended question invited them to record any comments they have about the topics at hand. There were 12 responses and three major themes present - those that support Rand's draft over Aexnidaral's, those that support the other way round, and those that think the entire idea is pointless.

The last theme garnered a total of two comments, with an additional comment in this theme and that which sides with Aexnidaral's draft. One stated that the entire idea was "pointless," another said that "the whole idea is shit", and the last said that "its [sic] one of those things where no one really cares if its [sic] passed or not" and that "the whole idea should be scrapped."

The next theme is that which supports Rand's draft over Aexnidaral's, or otherwise disapproves of the latter, garnering a total of three comments. One respondent commented that "the anti-Rand crowd is out and about again," apparently claiming there is a group of people who are against Senator Rand. Another said that "Aex is stonewalling anything he doesn't like" and that "Senators should be behaving more professionally," possibly referring to the posts Speaker Aexnidaral made in the Senate. The last says that "to see the Speaker call this a legislative dumpster fire is disheartening and definitely beyond the pale," the last phrase meaning 'unacceptable behaviour.'

The final theme is that which supports Aexnidaral's draft over Rand's, or otherwise disapproves of the latter. This gets the majority responses of 6 comments. They range from mild comments which say "I feel that Aex's most recent drafts are the best" and "if i had to choose which bill to support of the two i'd go with aex's" to much more polarised comments such as claiming that Rand's draft is a "pointless 'transparency' circle-jerking piece of crap" and he "ignored all of the compromises and olive branches extended to him." One commenter even said that "if the Senate passes [Rand's draft] I will start a petition to block it from becoming law."

pointless

Rand's drafts go way overboard. If the Senate passes it I will start a petition to block it from becoming law.

if i had to choose which bill to support of the two i'd go with aex's but the whole idea is shit so . . . .

This is a pointless "transparency" circle-jerking piece of crap written by Rand, who has ignored all of the compromises and olive branches extended to him. The idea achieves nothing and is worth the same amount of time and energy being expended upon it.

To see the Speaker call this a legislative dumpster fire is disheartening and definitely beyond the pale.

As usual, Aex is stonewalling anything he doesn't like. Not everything needs to be so adversarial, and Senators should be behaving more professionally.

I feel that Aex's most recent drafts are the best.

The anti-Rand crowd is out and about again.

IMO, Rand's draft takes a view that is too wide of what should be considered a foreign interest, it should just be public offices. The idea of forcing ambassador confirmations seems to defeat the point of having an FA minister, if we are to do it we may as well hand over all FA policy to the senate.
I'm as baffled as Aex that this has continually increased in scope, when the public desire has clearly been the opposite.

There’s no real harm in disclosing foreign affiliations. People are inventing reasons it’s a bad idea.

From everyone I've spoken to about this legislation, its one of those things where no one really cares if its passed or not, and its not a hill worth dying on (unless you're Izzy or Rand, apparently). I don't know if there's an effective way to legislate around the IC concerns raised by NES and the very real OOC concerns raised by others (e.g. players stalking others in their other regions). At this point, I think the idea needs to be scrapped. The latest draft posted by Rand on 5/30 is full of some glaring holes and has myriad issues (did he consider the compromises offered by his colleagues?), and I would be surprised to see it passed.

In conclusion, the public is very split on this issue. Though there is a small majority of those who are for foreign affiliation disclosures, neither of the two pieces of proposed legislation which would implement this idea garner majority support. The idea of ambassadorial confirmations is one not very popular and with the Senate possibly coming to vote on Rand's draft soon, it is unclear what will happen next.
 
Personally, I don't think this legislation is needed. I've raised my private concerns on the forums already. I think this should be tabled, primarily due to issues raised by NES; safety concerns raised by others; and the fact that this information is already easily-obtainable (and some players will offer that information up in their campaign platforms as additional proof of their qualifications).

@Sopo, perhaps you should discuss with Lethen what sort of safety concerns he feels warrants the tabling of this legislation, as the safety concerns have not just been raised by Kari, but by several people.
Lethen is welcome to tell me--but I can't imagine why something would be safe for citizenship applications but not safe for these disclosures. It's the same information requested in both places, just at a different time.

So, my thoughts on that are:

We require cit app disclosure from people who have not been here before (and likely don't know anyone here). It's unlikely that they have anyone in this region who they feel are becoming inordinately creepy or harassing at that point. However, over time, it's likely that either someone in the region (think Sam111, Askar, Brun -- all here for months/years? slowly engaging in increasingly controlling or harassing behavior) or someone who has followed this person from another region will begin becoming a stalking issue with our citizen. If the citizen is forced to disclose all of their other regions, perhaps some of which they have been "hiding out" in or trying to escape to for respite, then we are possibly exacerbating potential harassment of our citizen. I know of a few citizens personally who have been followed by a very creepy person, and if they were forced to disclose their other regions consistently, they would not be able to keep that information from their stalker or harasser and will have to deal with them in multiple regions.

I think the possibility of this issue occurring (which this region has seen multiple times in the past) very much outweighs the slight benefits from forcing disclosures.

Listen, you all know me, I'm gung ho about finding out if someone is a member of a fascist region, but even I don't think this disclosure situation will have very much benefit.
 
If the citizen is forced to disclose all of their other regions, perhaps some of which they have been "hiding out" in or trying to escape to for respite, then we are possibly exacerbating potential harassment of our citizen.

The citizen can involve RL law enforcement or forum administrators. This really isn't a good enough reason.
 
If the citizen is forced to disclose all of their other regions, perhaps some of which they have been "hiding out" in or trying to escape to for respite, then we are possibly exacerbating potential harassment of our citizen.

The citizen can involve RL law enforcement or forum administrators. This really isn't a good enough reason.
This is just a cop-out answer.

Involving RL police would not have solved the problematic citizens I mentioned above.

And while the admins were investigating Sam111, Askar, and Brun, if their victims were forced to disclose all of their foreign affiliations, that would basically be giving those abusers free license to follow their victims to other regions, precluding effective administrative action to stop the issue and protect our citizens.
 
If the citizen is forced to disclose all of their other regions, perhaps some of which they have been "hiding out" in or trying to escape to for respite, then we are possibly exacerbating potential harassment of our citizen.

The citizen can involve RL law enforcement or forum administrators. This really isn't a good enough reason.

This is seems purposefully dismissive. Telling the Admins or LEO doesn't make something happen immediately, it takes awhile. Even clear cut things like Bruns or Anumias ban took a long time; and that's a good thing, enforcement agencies should be deliberative to ensure that wrongdoing is being done without wildly swinging a banhammer
 
If the citizen is forced to disclose all of their other regions, perhaps some of which they have been "hiding out" in or trying to escape to for respite, then we are possibly exacerbating potential harassment of our citizen.

The citizen can involve RL law enforcement or forum administrators. This really isn't a good enough reason.
This is just a cop-out answer.

Involving RL police would not have solved the problematic citizens I mentioned above.

And while the admins were investigating Sam111, Askar, and Brun, if their victims were forced to disclose all of their foreign affiliations, that would basically be giving those abusers free license to follow their victims to other regions, precluding effective administrative action to stop the issue and protect our citizens.

It's not really a cop out answer. If you feel as if your life is in danger, get off the computer and call the police. Otherwise, inform forum admins. This is how the real world works.
 
If the citizen is forced to disclose all of their other regions, perhaps some of which they have been "hiding out" in or trying to escape to for respite, then we are possibly exacerbating potential harassment of our citizen.

The citizen can involve RL law enforcement or forum administrators. This really isn't a good enough reason.
This is just a cop-out answer.

Involving RL police would not have solved the problematic citizens I mentioned above.

And while the admins were investigating Sam111, Askar, and Brun, if their victims were forced to disclose all of their foreign affiliations, that would basically be giving those abusers free license to follow their victims to other regions, precluding effective administrative action to stop the issue and protect our citizens.

It's not really a cop out answer. If you feel as if your life is in danger, get off the computer and call the police. Otherwise, inform forum admins. This is how the real world works.

It's not that simple.
 
Even if this were limited to say CoS/DCoS/Senate, there are still myriad ways and places for people to participate in the highest levels of Europeian government without disclosing, if stalking is a legitimate concern.

Going for the FM, DFM, cabinet, justices, CA Chair, etc., probably isn’t necessary and still gives a lot of options for people while keeping the positions with the most important foreign affairs responsibilities requiring disclosure.

Either way, I think this has become too heated (all around - not pointing fingers at any one side) for something that really isn’t that big of a deal and should be rather simple. It’s a simple disclosure that makes sense, is administratively feasible, and updates previously provided information.

Bottom line: it really isn’t unreasonable.
 
Indeed, which is why in my compromise proposal I included the opt-in for Senate, rather than it being forced, so that way the only mandated positions were the CoS and FM; the two most important positions.
 
I know the Senate doesn’t approve that many treaties, but when they do, they are incredibly important and often become the strategic documents that inform and guide foreign policy decisions. For that reason, I’m in favor of including the Senate in the group.

Just my opinion, though.
 
I don't know if I follow that logic -- wouldn't it make more sense for the CoFA to be the one who would have to disclose then, since it'd be them that'd be primarily negotiating the treaty? The only thing that the Senate really does irt treaties tends to be non-substantive language changes.
 
I think it depends on your view of Senate oversight of the executive. Are they simply there to rubber stamp treaties and wordsmith, or are they there to ensure the strategic alliances we enter into are in the best interest of the region? If the Senate’s role is simply to rubber stamp treaties, then maybe they don’t need to be included - but I certainly hope the Senate doesn’t view itself in that way.

That’s more a hypothetical question for us to ponder as we consider whether the Senate should be included.
 
I don't know, does it depend on that? I've got a pretty liberal view of oversight -- in fact, one that's way more encompassing than yours. You've even taken me to task for it previously! The Senate is absolutely there to serve as a check on the Executive Branch, but for the most part, Senators aren't exactly elected on their Foreign Affairs experience. Some are, I know I ran on it partially, but not everyone does. There definitely is a tangential relationship between the Senate and the Region's foreign policy agenda, but not so much so that it should be so high up on the list of mandated disclosures that it comes after CoS and FM. There are other offices far more pertinent to the Region's foreign policy agenda that act singularly, or nearly singularly. In the case of mandated disclosures it would make sense for something like the Chief Executive officers -- who are the policy kingmakers, but for Senators, of whom there are many, it is less far less necessary or impactful for there to be a mandate for disclosure. That is precisely why in my amendment I offered the opt-in method rather than the opt-out one. If citizens truly believe that one Senator is dodging or being shady by opting out -- hound them in their thread. If they can't give a good answer, don't vote for them. But the way I see it is a disclosure mandate is there to say "okay, here are the places that this official could have a conflict of interest" -- and in the case where you've got multiple different actors, it's far less likely for those actors to be able to influence the overarching agenda of the Region to the benefit of somewhere else they're in. To be honest, I'd say that EAAC members (as a group) are far, far more impactful to the policy agenda of the Region, especially the ground-level substantial long-term policy-making than the Senate is for the Region, so I would assume that anyone who thinks a Senator should be required to disclosure their foreign affiliations would support forcing the EAAC members to disclose their foreign affiliations.
 
I certainly don’t see any issue with requiring EAAC members to disclose, and now that you bring it up would probably be good to include along with the Senate.
 
I definitely think there are a number of positions that are more impactful to the long term foreign policy apparatus of the Region than the Senate, and that the EAAC is definitely one of those groups!
 
I just don’t think we need to minimize the importance of the Senate’s role in FA and ratifying treaties. I think it is perfectly reasonable to include them. Indeed, I think it would be more unreasonable to give the Senate an exemption from disclosure given the importance of their role. Just because some positions may be more important (emphasis on may - everyone’s mileage will vary on this), doesn’t mean the Senate’s role isn’t important and crucial.

Of course, I know you think differently and that’s completely fair.
 
I'm not minimizing the Senate at all, in fact, you and I have often sparred over the Senates purview and I've always taken the side of greater Senate power. I still do! The Senate has a lot it can accomplish, but on the average day to day stuff of Foreign Affairs, and on the margins of our actual long term agenda it's less directly relevant. Treaties and War and Oversight capabilities (confirmations, etc) are definitely hugely important! But when we are looking at how say, the Council of State and EAAC impact foreign policy, there's definitely a huge difference in the goals and where there respective seats at the table are! The Senate can't dictate executive policy in the way that the Council of State or Chief of State can, nor can it provide the the institutional guidance and knowledge background that the EAAC can. Indeed, they're all very different bodies with immensely different goals, and that's a good thing! Exactly how it should be! But when we are looking at the microcosm of the purpose of disclosures, in terms of where disclosures and foreign interests may be relevant, it is something that is definitely lower on the hierarchy than the CoS, Council of State, and EAAC!
 
Even if this were limited to say CoS/DCoS/Senate, there are still myriad ways and places for people to participate in the highest levels of Europeian government without disclosing, if stalking is a legitimate concern.

Going for the FM, DFM, cabinet, justices, CA Chair, etc., probably isn’t necessary and still gives a lot of options for people while keeping the positions with the most important foreign affairs responsibilities requiring disclosure.

Either way, I think this has become too heated (all around - not pointing fingers at any one side) for something that really isn’t that big of a deal and should be rather simple. It’s a simple disclosure that makes sense, is administratively feasible, and updates previously provided information.

Bottom line: it really isn’t unreasonable.
I actually offered a compromise early on to Rand that I would support one of these options:

CoS/DCoS + Councilors (those who focus on FA issues, seems logical for foreign disclosures)
or
FM/DFM+ CoS/DCoS (those who have top-level access to decision-making processes)

I thought that having a limited amount of these "disclosure" positions could allow for this concept to be implemented but also allow room for those concerned about privacy to continue to interact with the government and maintain their privacy (in other positions). However, Rand was not satisfied with these options and continued to push for including all (or almost all) elected positions in the region, as well as almost all confirmed positions. That proposal is just untenable for me and I cannot support it.

To supplement this, I would be fine with requiring EAAC member foreign disclosure.
 
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As I said, you may believe the importance to be lower than some other positions, but I think they are of great importance. Even you recognize the value in knowing, given the opt-in model you’ve proposed.

Regarding the Senate’s ability to dictate executive policy, I think recent history indicates it has a tremendous ability to do so as part of its inherent oversight functions. The very sparring you mention us having had to do with the Senate telling the executive how it could or could not shape its structure, in terms of which departments the CoS could have or not. No need to relitigate that - but it shows just how important the Senate is in shaping executive policy.

Also, given the importance of FA - it’s the only ministry that has its own group of senior level advisors on call at all times in the EAAC - why wouldn’t we want to err on the side of caution for what is arguably the most important part of our government? It is such an easy thing to do, very feasible, and with no downside.
 
Indeed, the Senate has a great role to play in our politics! On this issue, even though I don't think disclosures accomplish a great deal substantively, I was very proud to have authored the compromise proposal I did, after working with my colleagues to find the most palatable solution among us!
 
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