Senate Election Liveblog February 2024

Senate Election Liveblog February 2024

Hi! The TIME we have been waiting for the last few weeks is finally upon us: the voting day of the elections to the 93rd Senate!

While the campaigning has been low-key so far in comparison to earlier Senate elections, the late entrants of some strong candidates like @Lime, @Istillian, and @Fillet minion have given us hope for an exciting race on the voting day!

Recent polling conducted by EBC shows Pichtonia and Istillian are heavily favored to win their respective races while the citizens are likely to return Cordova I to the Senate. However, NLHP and surprisingly GraVandius are faring poorly in the polls leading to the election, giving both of their campaigns sleepless nights. Note that this poll was conducted before Fillet Minion and Lime announced their candidacies.

Tonight, special guests @Lloenflys, @PhDre, and @Ellenburg will be joining us for the coverage of the Senate elections! We will also be joined by candidate @Lime who we unfortunately couldn't interview due to his late entry into this race.

So, I have some questions to ask the special guests: What do you think the turnout approximately would be? Since there’s no single issue that particularly defines this election, what do you think will motivate the citizens to go and vote? Do you believe the relatively strong candidate field will make up for the low-key campaign?

And for Lime, what prompted you to put up a last-minute campaign? Are you confident about your prospects?
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[Lloenflys]

Thanks for the invitation to participate, ICH. I'm excited to see what kind of a Senate we get when the results come in.

As for your questions ... for turnout I'm going to say somewhere between the number we got for the last general election (53) and what we got for the by-election (44). Let's peg that at 50. While that wouldn't be a *great* number, it would be decent given that there isn't any burning issue for the Senate to be fighting over at the moment.

Given that lack of a burning issue, I'm thinking voters are likely going to default to experience and a comfort level with with particular experienced Senators to make their decisions. It's a lot harder for a newer voice to break through when there isn't a big issue to stake your candidacy on. That said, someone like Fillet may benefit from a desire to cast at least one vote for a less experienced voice. To the extent that GraV is struggling, it may just be that people don't feel he's been as engaged recently and so there might be a reluctance to move him immediately back into the Senate.

We have enough candidates who have a lot of experience and history in the region to guarantee us an interesting race no matter what the issues are this time around, so I'm just excited to get the voting underway and see what happens!

 

[PhDre]

So, I have some questions to ask the special guests: What do you think the turnout approximately would be? Since there’s no single issue that particularly defines this election, what do you think will motivate the citizens to go and vote?

I don't expect high turnout unless there is a competitive final seat that marginal candidates GOTV for - if there is GOTV then expect 55+ votes, otherwise 45-55.

Honestly, I'm not sure what motivation there is to be involved with the political process / the Senate. Certainly each vote matters little in our current Senate elections because of how votes are allocated. Maybe if every vote actually had an impact on the dynamics of the - gets dragged out of the thread.

I think this election is going to be kind of a dud because there isn't an issue that defines the race (like how Weighted Voting did in the previous Senate campaign) and the issues proposed are broadly not very gripping. However, I'd keep an eye on ideas like Killing the PA and the Bar Association, both of which we recently modified to not run on traditional election cycles due to terrible activity levels from both. The Bar Association has been limping along for months now, and the PA seems beyond inactive due to an inability to have a dedicated leader there. I think that there are real question marks about the legal reforms that we spent a lot of blood and tears debating, and whether they were positive reforms. Maybe that'll become an issue during the term, or maybe the Senate will be as unwilling to debate broader reforms as citizens are to engage with the Senate in the first place, and maybe that activity will instead siphon off to a Constitutional Convention.

Do you believe the relatively strong candidate field will make up for the low-key campaign?

I'd push back on calling this a relatively strong candidate field, I don't think it is particularly strong. Perhaps that's colored by the (polite way to call the race) "low-key campaign," but when your strongest candidates are only running because there's no interest - I don't know! Seems not ideal. On the bright side, we have a Future Commission with more committees now underway, I'm looking forward to all our political energy being sucked into that.

 

[Ellenburg]

Thank you for the invitation to speak here this will be a first for me! I think this election will trend like the region has as of late on the lower end for vote totals. As of writing this, I have not received any GOTV so I am assuming that the candidates have opted not to do this. Looking at some of the early results, a few candidates would benefit from doing this. With the current trend, I feel it will be on the lower end for the vote total. I would guess at the most 55 voters and even that could be high.

I think the motivation to vote here is more duty to do so by the active members of Europeia than anything. It was a very uneventful campaign season for General this time. I would say experience normally but I am not even sure that is in play this time around as we see Grav struggling early. I was kinda disappointed by this campaign season was hoping to see more new ideas and fresh things to be discussed in the Senate and it just wasn't there. I have to agree with PhDre I think this election is a dud.

I think the strong field will help overall but this election just doesn't seem to have any flare at all. I did like the late jumpin by Lime for Senate another good experienced candidate to add to the field. I do feel in the end the more experienced candidates will win out though would like to see at least one of the newer less experienced ones in the Senate get in for some fresh blood perspective. I am not taking away anything from experience but it's always good to give some newer names a chance to shine in the Senate.

 

[ICH]

Thanks for your insightful answers!

We are halfway into the elections and we are starting to get a clear picture of the Senate we should be expecting next term. A six-seated Senate has received seven more votes than a five-seated Senate so far. The results until now have been mostly in line with what the polls suggested. Istillian, Pichtonia, and Cordova I have been the three highest vote-getters with 29, 27, and 26 votes respectively, and should be almost certain of a victory. The sixth seat race is a three-way contest between Fillet Minion, NLHP, and GraVandius who has so far got 13, 10, and 9 votes respectively.

So, I again would like to get back to our special guests @Ellenburg, @Lloenflys, and @PhDre with some questions: What has been the biggest surprise to you about the results? Other than not making a platform, what other factors do you think led to this very disappointing show by GraVandius? With 37 votes already cast, how many more votes do you expect to be cast in the last 12 hours?

 

[PhDre]

The sixth seat race is a three-way contest between Fillet Minion, NLHP, and GraVandius who has so far got 13, 10, and 9 votes respectively.

I look forward to a sixth seat held by a Senator elected by a fraction of Europeians who will have as much power as a consensus candidate Senator. I think it makes a lot of sense for someone who can get 13 of 37 voters to support their campaign to have equal power as someone who has the support of 29 of 37 voters.

My biggest surprise is that we are comfortable with this arrangement, and are comfortable with a candidate who was 35% support having as much power as a candidate with 78% support!

My second greatest surprise is that our sixth ranked candidate has 35% support. I guess this goes back to my previous comment regarding the quality of candidates. If we can't find even six candidates with significant support, that speaks to a weak field not a strong one.

 

[Lloenflys]

I confidently predicted 50 votes earlier so I'll stand by that. I know some GOTV started at least midway through the day - we'll see if that has any effect. Even though I don't normally push for 6 seats, I did this time because I think there are a lot of interesting candidates and I want to see 6 of these folks in the Senate, so that's what I'm rooting for. For GraV, I think the lack of a platform coupled with feeling like this is a little bit of an out of the blue return probably have contributed to a lower-than-expected vote share for him given that he is generally recognized as a very strong Senator when he is in service.

 

[Ellenburg]

Apologies for the late post on your follow-up questions. At the time of posting, there are a little over 5 hours left and the race for the final spot has tightened up quite a bit. All three are within reach of the final spot with only two votes separating from being in or out!

Now for your follow-up questions. I am surprised at the lack of GOTV overall. Either pre-election or day off. I know some citizens are probably cheering but I do like to receive GOTV messages, especially in elections with many candidates. To me, it shows the extra effort that they want the position and if I am undecided it does help.

GraVandius disappointing showing has most to do with no platform but I have to agree with Lloen that their sudden return to activity might have some to do with it as well. As of writing Gravandius sits only a few votes away from taking the 6th spot some late votes in their favor could see them pull out a miracle comeback. I would not count Gravendius out of this race just yet.

At this point with about 5 hours remaining I am lowering my prediction of the final vote total to 47 votes. I see in the final hours at least that many coming in late. These voters will decide the 6th spot.

 

[ICH]

Thank you again for your answers! The race for the sixth seat has indeed turned very competitive--with each of the last three candidates separated by a very thin margin.

My biggest surprise is that we are comfortable with this arrangement, and are comfortable with a candidate who was 35% support having as much power as a candidate with 78% support!

Do you believe this election will lead to another discussion over the concept of the Weighted Voting Amendment? Or do you think the issue should not be re-visited in the foreseeable future since a vote on this has happened fairly recently?

 

[Lime]

And for Lime, what prompted you to put up a last-minute campaign? Are you confident about your prospects?

Thank you for the invitation, and apologises for the last-minute reply, it seems to be a theme of this campaign! We've just been so busy out and about campaigning in this first (and final) stretch!! I stood at the last minute because I felt I could contribute some additional ideas to this election, and help to make it just a little more competitive and I feel like I've been successful in both those goals.

As for my prospects, it appears that we've done pretty well in this election and I'm very grateful to everyone who voted for me, and especially so given the lateness of my campaign. I hope I can be a successful Senator for voters in the next term, and I look forward to working with my soon to be elected colleagues.