EBC Jan. '24 Poll: Presidential Re-Run, Senate Midterm
JayDee an Underdog for Re-Election, Senate Gets a Solid "Meh"
Written by Maowi, McEntire, and PaleLand
The EBC poll of the Presidential re-run election shows JayDee trailing his main opponent at the time of the poll, Elio. Elio seems to be propelled by approval of their job as Speaker and positive reviews of their platform. The Senate overall has bare majority approval, though. And this poll shows that while a majority of respondents approve of the Constitutional Convention Resolution, the Weighted Voting Act continues to be upside down in its support.
This poll ran from January 9-11, and had 32 respondents - a notable improvement from the last two EBC polls (yay engagement!)
The Presidential Election
Elio/Sincluda vs JayDee/Vor - 62.5% Elio
The Europeian Broadcasting Corporation has good news for presidential hopeful Elio, who wins the head-to-head against incumbent JayDee with some margin for error when the undecideds are forced to choose. However, there are several silver linings for JayDee.
Firstly, citizens who opted to reopen elections in the first round of voting are overrepresented in this poll; there may be more solid JayDee enthusiasts among the electorate than this result suggests at first glance.
Secondly, a quarter of respondents were undecided, placing Elio below an outright majority of hard support – JayDee may stand a chance of converting their leanings towards Elio/Sincluda to his side (perhaps with a strong debate performance, which some argued won him his first election, although Elio is currently an unknown when it comes to presidential debates).
Thirdly, the entry of McEntire into the fray is likely to shake up voting margins. If there is any merit to the speculations that multiple non-JayDee tickets could split the 58% vote to reopen elections, this is a positive development for the incumbent, although it would not save him in a run-off against either of the alternative tickets.
Satisfaction with field - 50.0%
Exactly half of respondents expressed satisfaction with the current field. It should be noted that Minister of Communications McEntire announced her candidacy eighteen hours into the poll, a development that is unlikely to have skewed these results, particularly since the first 26 of our 32 responses came in before this time.
Nonetheless, overall feelings on the field were not particularly strong either way. Of the several possible tickets that were floated before the first round of voting, only one had materialised by the time most people took this poll; this discrepancy between the expected field and the outcome so far may be contributing to any dissatisfaction, possibly in addition to the effect noted by Pichtonia in the #grand-hall channel: “It's easier to project your ideal candidate onto RoE (or "other") than having to make a choice between actual candidates.”
Platform satisfaction - 56.3% JayDee, 75.0% Elio
In a positive sign for Europeian democracy, neither platform received any “very dissatisfied” votes, and perhaps even more impressively, only one respondent had not read either of the platforms. Elio and Sincluda’s platform A Tale of Two Europeias unambiguously outperformed Brighten the Stars by JayDee and Vor, receiving more “very satisfied” responses and fewer “neutral” and “dissatisfied” responses. Based on the comments, both tickets have lines of attack on the other that they could explore in a debate or over the course of the campaign; many respondents expressed doubt as to the feasibility of Elio’s proposed projects and reforms, while still praising their vision and thoroughness.
N/A
None
Elio's was a bit wordy
I like the details and ideas and Elios platform
Elio’s platform puts too much on his plate
n/a
Elio's is very comprehensive, though hope he doesn't burn out trying to do it all
X
Elio's platform is a bit bold for a less experienced candidate
Elio’s goals are consistent across all plans
-
Both are pretty swag
Not clear why JayDee feels suited for reelection or if the region is interested in reelection. JD's platform seems to overcorrect for failures of previous terms (Press Secretary when the problem was JD was not communicative and nothing was happening). Elio's platform seems manageable at first but is very ambitious, and whether there is actually political will to streamline and stop doing things that aren't worth doing.
JayDee's is a bit too status quo for the problems facing the region. I like that Elio has a clear vision, but I actually think he may have *too much* detail that will bog down the ministers.
both platforms are adequate, nothing really stands out in particular
Both are pretty good!
Overall good platforms on both sides, hoping for a competitive election
Okay
Appreciate Elio/Sincluca’s enthusiasm, however, unsure of the feasibility of all the grand changes proposed in their platform
None.
None
.
In the next question, I did not vote in the first round but that's not an option so I chose ROE if you would like to edit your results to reflect that.
None
Elio's was a bit wordy
I like the details and ideas and Elios platform
Elio’s platform puts too much on his plate
n/a
Elio's is very comprehensive, though hope he doesn't burn out trying to do it all
X
Elio's platform is a bit bold for a less experienced candidate
Elio’s goals are consistent across all plans
-
Both are pretty swag
Not clear why JayDee feels suited for reelection or if the region is interested in reelection. JD's platform seems to overcorrect for failures of previous terms (Press Secretary when the problem was JD was not communicative and nothing was happening). Elio's platform seems manageable at first but is very ambitious, and whether there is actually political will to streamline and stop doing things that aren't worth doing.
JayDee's is a bit too status quo for the problems facing the region. I like that Elio has a clear vision, but I actually think he may have *too much* detail that will bog down the ministers.
both platforms are adequate, nothing really stands out in particular
Both are pretty good!
Overall good platforms on both sides, hoping for a competitive election
Okay
Appreciate Elio/Sincluca’s enthusiasm, however, unsure of the feasibility of all the grand changes proposed in their platform
None.
None
.
In the next question, I did not vote in the first round but that's not an option so I chose ROE if you would like to edit your results to reflect that.
First round voting split - 71.9% ROE
Of the 32 respondents, nine were JayDee/Vor voters from the first round, 22 were reopen elections voters, and one did not vote (but would have opted to reopen elections). Whether it is a result of the incumbent having an advantage with less engaged late voters or a simple coincidence, it is apparent that those committed to voting for JayDee are underrepresented in this sample.
A clear majority of the reopen election voters were motivated by a desire for a competitive election, while the remaining 34.8% seem reluctant to vote for JayDee at all, either due to dissatisfaction with his performance or out of an appetite for fresh leadership. Interestingly, support levels have had some movement since elections were reopened – of the nine respondents that voted JayDee/Vor in the first round, five have stuck by him, one is now a solid Elio/Sincluda supporter, and one of the three undecideds fell in the Elio/Sincluda camp when forced to choose.
Effect of JayDee’s loss to ROE - no impact for 84.4%
To an overwhelming majority of respondents, JayDee’s loss in the first round had no impact on their second-round voting intentions. Several campaigners in favour of reopening elections stated that their advocacy against JayDee was not reflective of their view of his performance and was instead out of concern for the health of Europeian politics and democracy; this may be the prevailing viewpoint in respondents here. Additionally, a first-round less was unlikely to sway those who did vote to reopen elections as a mark of dissatisfaction with JayDee.
Other desired candidates - upc (5), Rand (4)
The most highly sought-after candidate to make a late entry to this race is upc, who launched a presidential bid with sanjurika in the first round of the election but unfortunately had to withdraw due to illness. Next in line is Vice President Rand; he has made no indications that he is intending to run. The rumoured candidates from before elections were reopened also featured – McEntire and Sopo were nominated three times, and Cordova I twice. An impressive 16 names were mentioned overall.
None
N/A
-
mc, cordova, sopo
Idk, this is required though so I’ll go with upc
Cordova
Maowi, Seva, Lloen, McEntire
Upc
Z
Sopo, McEntire, upc, Rand
HEM
Anyone who is a strong, inspiring leader with a track record of significant results and a team behind them. That is missing from this election.
PhDre, Rand, Kuramia, Sopo, Sanjurika, UPC
Kaz, Ist
Not sure
Rand, maybe Pland Adanna again, Pierce.
upc, maowi
Maowi
None.
Rand
.
I wouldn't have voted for JayDee regardless.
N/A
-
mc, cordova, sopo
Idk, this is required though so I’ll go with upc
Cordova
Maowi, Seva, Lloen, McEntire
Upc
Z
Sopo, McEntire, upc, Rand
HEM
Anyone who is a strong, inspiring leader with a track record of significant results and a team behind them. That is missing from this election.
PhDre, Rand, Kuramia, Sopo, Sanjurika, UPC
Kaz, Ist
Not sure
Rand, maybe Pland Adanna again, Pierce.
upc, maowi
Maowi
None.
Rand
.
I wouldn't have voted for JayDee regardless.
Other comments
Respondents expressed a range of viewpoints in this open-ended “other comments” section. One recurring theme was a hope for the election to become even more competitive; it may be that the McEntire/Monkey ticket’s emergence has been enough to satisfy those qualms. A “Gossip Blog” post by E-News Network Managing Editor Sopo also hinted at yet another ticket in the works, though nothing has publicly materialised from it for now, with voting due to open on Sunday.
N/A
None
No
.
I wish there were more tickets running. The people of Europia deserve more choices. Two tickets just aren't enough. To ensure a more competitive election, at least three tickets would be good
n/a
Y
Hurry it up, sopo
-
I disagree with some of the language used in the Elio camp. The use of phrases like ‘splitting the opposition vote’ implies that Elio has support from people who are supporting him to oppose JayDee.
Incredible gaslighting from the people who said they'd run but didn't. I wouldn't have voted ROE if I knew this was the outcome.
Nope
Why is JayDee running for a third term? What is left unfinished from two terms? No one runs and wins four elections in a row, so why is this necessary, what is left not done? This is unresolved.
I'm glad we got an interesting one after all!
no comment
Just get on with it.
None
Nope, laziness
No.
No
Weird section to require a response on. Here, have a poop emoji.
None
No
.
I wish there were more tickets running. The people of Europia deserve more choices. Two tickets just aren't enough. To ensure a more competitive election, at least three tickets would be good
n/a
Y
Hurry it up, sopo
-
I disagree with some of the language used in the Elio camp. The use of phrases like ‘splitting the opposition vote’ implies that Elio has support from people who are supporting him to oppose JayDee.
Incredible gaslighting from the people who said they'd run but didn't. I wouldn't have voted ROE if I knew this was the outcome.
Nope
Why is JayDee running for a third term? What is left unfinished from two terms? No one runs and wins four elections in a row, so why is this necessary, what is left not done? This is unresolved.
I'm glad we got an interesting one after all!
no comment
Just get on with it.
None
Nope, laziness
No.
No
Weird section to require a response on. Here, have a poop emoji.
Senate Approvals
Overall Senate Approval - 46.9%
The overall approval of the Senate slightly increased from the last End-of-Term poll, leaving it just behind fifty percent. Commenters highlight how the Senate has certainly worked a lot at this point, especially in the shadows.
The Senate is doing as best as they could.
I know some things have been happening behind the scenes but it feels very quiet.
I have not paid much attention to the Senate this term but it seems like we're still working on all the things we were working on when I was paying closer attention a month or more ago. Maybe that's bad, maybe not. I wouldn't know and, frankly, nothing the Senate is working on is important enough for me to care either.
I know some things have been happening behind the scenes but it feels very quiet.
I have not paid much attention to the Senate this term but it seems like we're still working on all the things we were working on when I was paying closer attention a month or more ago. Maybe that's bad, maybe not. I wouldn't know and, frankly, nothing the Senate is working on is important enough for me to care either.
Speaker Elio Approval - 75%
Elected for the second time as Speaker, Elio’s ratings dropped off a bit, but they still remain very high, coming off as the second best senator for approval. Commenters focused on him seeking a presidential election victory, mostly thinking he would do a good job as president.
A bit strange to see him seeking a promotion so soon after a pitched Speaker battle
I'm glad he's feeling better. He is a good administrator and would make an excellent president
Elio overall does a good job but I would prefer a little more consistency on checking to move things forward. Just a quibble though because you can't MAKE Senators talk.
I'm glad he's feeling better. He is a good administrator and would make an excellent president
Elio overall does a good job but I would prefer a little more consistency on checking to move things forward. Just a quibble though because you can't MAKE Senators talk.
Senator upc Approval - 78.2%
Coming off as the most approved Senator is upc, just nominated to the role in the previous election. Comments here are a bit lackluster, focusing on the fact that upc was overall a good senator.
good Enough
You guessed it! Pretty cool
You guessed it! Pretty cool
Senator PhDre Approval - 62.6%
Incumbent PhDre is basically on the same levels of approvals as the End-of-Term poll suggested, dropping only by a tiny 1%, while commenters have highlighted his position on weighted voting.
He proposed a very controversial issue in the weighted voting amendment but he has courage to stick to his guns which I can respect
Pretty cool... again
Pretty cool... again
Senator McEntire Approval - 59.4%
Senator McEntire reached almost 60% of approval whilst being elected this term. Comments here are lackluster too, with one highlighting the Senator’s ability to think.
The senator is a deep thinker and can articulate her thoughts very well.
Senator Cordova I Approval - 56.2%
Coming off as the last Senator by approval, Cordova I still sits comfortably above 50% coming in as a newcomer and proposing legislation, as comments have highlighted.
Cordova should be called the comeback senator. He has served multiple terms in the Senate and won his election shortly after his return to the region. He seems to be very knowledgeable of legislation given that he has written a lot of it himself. Kudos to him
Has at least introduced some legislation but I'm not sure it is impactful legislation.
Has at least introduced some legislation but I'm not sure it is impactful legislation.
Senate Activity Rating - 51.6%
Senate Actvity has improved from the last poll, even if it is not yet a high approval, with comments citing the holiday season as a probable cause for that.
The Senate is as active as can be expected given the holiday season
Could be better but ok
Could be better but ok
Issues Before the Senate
Constitutional Convention Resolution - 54.9% support
A majority are supportive of the Constitutional Convention Resolution, although notably nearly 1-in-5 respondents are either opposed or very opposed. The relative lack of comments suggests that there may be a lack of enthusiasm for this Convention despite it having majority support. Although, up until now, the Convention has been on a glide path to passage, criticism from Senator PhDre and in the Grand Hall has emerged in recent days.
I fear that we are going to either see a convention that descends into chaos with no real agreement on a coherent package of changes, or worse, we'll get an agreement on radical change with not enough thought put into the implications. A convention is best suited when a region needs a radical change and you have to do multiple big things at once. I don't think we are anywhere near that. Change is fine, but there's no reason we can't make changes in an orderly fashion and test them first, and that's not really how a convention function
It works
Why though?
It works
Why though?
Weighted Voting Amendment - 30% support
The Weighted Voting Amendment continues to be upside down in support, with voters opposed by a 60%-30% margin in this poll. Notably, this is nearly identical to the 60%-32% that opposed this legislation in the previous EBC poll, suggesting that PhDre’s proposal to add a “trial period” to this legislation has not moved any opponents. Some people did seemingly shift from “very opposed” to just “opposed,” but unfortunately that won’t help this legislation in a potential referendum. With 3 of 5 Senators in favor of this legislation, it seems that it will pass, and we will see if Senator PhDre’s effort can overcome these difficult - and thus far unmoving - numbers.
I Feel that this amendment is worth a try. We could always repeal it if it doesn't work
This is an example of a significant change that would function by itself, is time limited with an easily usable backout provision, and that gives us a chance to experiment with something. If we can make substantive changes like this piecemeal, test them, and back out of them if we don't like them, why do we need a big constitutional convention?
should only last 1-2 terms
Heh
This is an example of a significant change that would function by itself, is time limited with an easily usable backout provision, and that gives us a chance to experiment with something. If we can make substantive changes like this piecemeal, test them, and back out of them if we don't like them, why do we need a big constitutional convention?
should only last 1-2 terms
Heh
Order of Precedence Act - 20% support
Ad Hoc Elections Amendment - 40% support
Both of these pieces of legislation - one of which was passed - have majority neutral responses, suggesting that respondents were not quite as familiar with them. The comments on the Order of Precedence Act noted it as “fine,” “pointless,” and “not that important.” The Ad-Hoc Elections Amendment Act has higher overall support, perhaps due to its origin in the People’s Assembly, but similarly has a majority who don’t quite know what to make of it.
Superfluous and silly
Not every piece of legislation has to be useful or necessary. I do like how this amendment adds flavor to our region
It's fine, it doesn't hurt anything
Not the worst idea, although prefixes already serve a similar purpose
Kinda pointless
It's not that important
Not every piece of legislation has to be useful or necessary. I do like how this amendment adds flavor to our region
It's fine, it doesn't hurt anything
Not the worst idea, although prefixes already serve a similar purpose
Kinda pointless
It's not that important
I don’t really get it tbh
knows
knows
