UPC/Sanjurika Clear Frontrunner Going Into The Polls
UPC/Sanjurika ticket leads by a significant margin as per the findings of the EBC Opinion Poll.
Written by ICH
Demographic Questions:
This poll was answered predominantly by relatively older Europeians, with more than half of them being a citizen here for more than 4 years. A plurality of the respondents has also served as the President or other equivalent positions in the region during their time here, which means that the poll would give us a good idea of how the relatively more experienced Europeians are leaning when it comes to this election. This poll, however, finds itself skewed more towards the JayDee/Vor voters as a much greater percentage of those who voted in the previous election and have also answered this poll were JayDee/Vor supporters, in comparison to Elio/Sincluda voters, even though the last presidential election featured a tight race between both the tickets. While we don't have the latest numbers about the approval ratings of the President and the Executive in our hands at the moment, it gives us a hint as to how popular the outgoing President and Executive are among their constituents which would be further looked into once the EBC releases the End-of-the Term approval polls shortly.
Head-to-Head Comparison and Voting:
Even when "Not Sure" is an option, UPC/Sanjurika comes really close to hitting the majority mark, with 48.3% leaning towards voting them at this stage. "Not sure" polls higher than the opposing Ellenburg/Sincluda ticket, in what should ring the alarm bells for the campaign as they enter the final stretch of the campaigning. When "Not sure" is removed as an option, the margins get tigher even though UPC/Sanjurika has the backing of more than three-fifths of the region. The Presidential Candidate preference results largely mirrors the findings of the Executive Interest poll conducted recently, where UPC had more or less three-fourths of the region's backing for Presidency while Ellen had around one-fourth of the citizenry's backing. Sincluda is polling higher than Ellenburg in terms of preference, while UPC is polling higher than his running mate Sanjurika. When the voters were asked about the platforms, even though UPC/Sanjurika leads in this aspect as well, it can be observed that even some UPC/Sanjurika voters have indicated a preference for Ellenburg/Sincluda's platform in spite of their voting preference, suggesting that UPC/Sanjurika's experience and relations with members of the region have played a more significant role for some in deciding their vote at this stage. More than half of the respondents have favoured the Communications section of Ellenburg/Sincluda's ticket while just less than half of the respondents liked their Foreign Affairs, WA and ERN policy but as the voting tallies suggest, it has not been enough to switch the voting preferences of some.
Enthusiasm Gauge of Candidates:
Ellenburg/Sincluda trumps UPC/Sanjurika when it comes to the average enthusiasm rating, notching up an average score of 7.9 against UPC/Sanjurika's 7.3. This suggests that while Ellenburg/Sincluda's core may be smaller, they do have a more solid core in comparison to their opposing ticket. However, a greater percentage of UPC/Sanjurika supporters believe they will stick to supporting the ticket in comparison to the Ellenburg/Sincluda supporters. This might be down to the fact that more than half of Ellenburg/Sincluda ticket supporters voted "Not sure" when it was an option on the ballot, in comparison to the supporters of the UPC/Sanjurika ticket which had more than half of its supporters voting in favour of the ticket even when "Not sure" was an option. For those supporting the Ellenburg/Sincluda ticket, the quality of the platform seems to have been the key reason behind their support for the ticket with some of the respondents describing it as "far stronger and impressive" and "more thought out." When it comes to the UPC/Sanjurika ticket, stronger working relationships seems to have been the key consideration for its supporters. With more than half of the respondents (16) indicating their willingness to consider the opposing tickets, it is clear the elections can still through a surprise when it comes to the actual results!
Performance of the Candidates Across Certain Demographic Groups:
Taking a closer look into the results, it can be observed that the UPC/Sanjurika ticket has a significant lead in almost all demographic groups, barring for one. Amongst Europeians who can be classified as "relatively newer" or having spent 0-4 years in the region, UPC/Sanjurika leads with 8 votes against Ellenburg/Sincluda's 6 votes. Europeians who spent more than 8 years in the region gave UPC/Sanjurika a lead with 5 votes to Ellenburg/Sincluda's 3 votes. When it comes to the Europeians who have spent between 4 to 8 years here, UPC has an even bigger lead over Ellenburg, as 5 of them prefer UPC/Sanjurika while 2 prefer Ellenburg/Sincluda.
Amongst the respondents who didn't vote in the last presidential elections, only one of them intend to vote for Ellenburg/Sincluda while five of them intend to vote for UPC/Sanjurika. Respondents who voted for Elio/Sincluda was the only group who didn't give UPC an outright majority of their support in this poll as both Ellenburg/Sincluda and UPC/Sanjurika secure 4 votes from this group. Ellenburg's high support amongst former Elio/Sincluda supporters might be due to Sincluda's presence on Ellenburg's ticket. Amongst former JayDee/Vor voters, 6 of them voted for Ellenburg while 9 of them voted for UPC's ticket.
Respondents who had a neutral view of the Executive largely prefered UPC to Ellenburg, with 2 of them voting for Ellenburg and 5 for UPC. Out of the three respondents who didn't approve of the Executive's performance, 2 support UPC while one of them support Ellenburg. Amongst those who approve, UPC secured the votes of a whooping 11 respondents while Ellenburg secured the support of 8.
