Panel Discussion

Common-Sense Politics

Common-Sense Politics

Audentes Fortuna Juvat
Deputy Minister
Honoured Citizen
Citizen
Pronouns
He/Him
​

Welcome all to the Citizen's first Panel Discussion! In the coming days we will discuss the upcoming presidential elections and through that prism the state of Europeian affairs and the coming term. Allow me to introduce our panelists:

PhDre is the current Chairman of the Citizens' Assembly, a former president, speaker of the Senate, and editor in chief of Aftermath Entertainment.

Skizzy Grey is a popular former multi-term president, chief justice, senator, long-term EAAC contributor and our resident old fart.

Deputy Speaker Cormac, also the current Vizier and Scribe of Foreign Affairs of the Osiris Fraternal Order joins us as well.

Gentlemen, welcome to the panel. Speaker Drecq and Minister Kraketopia face off in the contest to succeed President Anumia in five days time. Which policies of the current administration do you see continuing, being altered, or changing course completely under each candidate whether it's been implied by their platforms or simple prognostication on your part?
 
The most important policy difference, not only with the Anumia administration but between candidates, is Drecq's intention to abolish the Ministry of Communications, placing the foreign update back under Foreign Affairs and the EBC under Culture. Aside from this difference, I think most of the Anumia administration's policies will be continued by either Drecq or Kraketopia.

I do think there will be some substantive non-policy differences with the Anumia administration though. I think the tone of both candidates' platforms indicate that they believe communication between the Executive and the citizenry needs to be enhanced during the next term. This was a frequent criticism of the Anumia administration, so I think the next administration will work on better communicating its objectives and progress.

As a matter of practicality, I also think we will see a shift away from the Navy running its own small tag operations and greater emphasis on the Navy, particularly the Volunteers, participating in larger joint operations with allies. This will be necessary due to the size and activity of the current Active Fleet, but hopefully these joint operations will bring some enthusiasm back to the Navy so that recruitment for the Active Fleet will pick up.
 
I agree with Cormac. After a three-term presidency, the citizenry will welcome change for change's sake on matters of style, so it's not surprising to see both candidates promising a stylistically different approach. At the end of the day, however, Anumia is a three-term President for good reason; it is unsurprising that both candidates are promising a high degree of substantive continuity. And I think that's good for the region -- Anumia has been a fine President.

If there's a glimmer of a difference, it's on foreign policy -- Drecq's words about outreach to defender orgs sound like more than the usual balancing act that an independent foreign policy demands. To be honest, I don't like it -- but I don't want to read too much into a few sentences in a platform -- we should look at both candidates' records (and their running mates' records) in holistic fashion.
 
W/r/t continued policies, it's no surprise that with such a huge time and energy investment into the GAP, that both candidates promise to continue the program. I think it'll be some time (and an election or two down the road) before we see candidates who are willing to suggest altering or eliminating the program entirely - that depends on the success of the program, but I think both candidates are unwilling to be too far out of the box there. I think a very good indicator of how much these candidates are actually trying to change things up is a glance at their prospective candidates - in the past presidential candidates have not shared their ideal cabinet but down with timidity. And there's no real change in FA or MoFC, none in Culture, both sidegrades perhaps in the GA, and two prospective Interior candidates who will be hard pressed to hold a candle to Mouse (daprobem as Drecq's MoI? I feel like that's just being ignored because of more glaring issues with Drecq's platform but hm)...

I'm also hesitant to read too much into Drecq's comments, but it definitely reads like something I'd expect a less experienced NS-er to campaign on (winning the hearts and minds of NS defenders). It also points to (potentially) a lack of experience in foreign affairs and a lack of understanding of Europeia's place in the NS-sphere. At the same time there is upside in having a strong diplomatic presence w/ emerging 'independent' defender regions, maybe that is something that Drecq can turn the 'Kumbaya' rhetoric towards with some real success.

One area I see changing dramatically is Interior, which as I stated earlier is going to have to do a lot to match what Mouse has done there. I see it as a huge challenge for the incoming Administration.
 
Does Anumia have any major failings in terms of this presidency? Missed opportunities?
 
After a three-term presidency it's hard to say that Anumia has had major failings, at least in the eyes of most voters. I do think the administration failed to effectively communicate with the region in several policy areas, and certainly the lack of Navy activity in Anumia's third term has been a blemish even if there are multiple factors involved. I don't think these are necessarily major failings, though, as no administration is perfect.

That said, I think there are some missed opportunities that go beyond just the Anumia administration and are opportunities the region overall has been missing. It seems to me that Europeia has become too focused on the how, the mechanics of regional governance, and not focused enough on the what and the why -- how our institutions should be structured and should run, and why. While we're seeing activity from the Executive, we're not seeing anything that gets the region very enthusiastic and excited. We're barely seeing anything from the Senate. In general, we're seeing a malaise, I think, among the citizenry. It isn't quite inactivity but it certainly isn't the booming region I remember from two years ago.

To tie this back into presidential politics, I think Anumia did miss an opportunity to lead the region to be more imaginative and more thoughtful about how it should move into the future. To his credit, the GAP was innovative, but I think we could have used some of that innovation directed toward our own domestic institutions. I'm concerned both presidential candidates will miss this opportunity as well and I do think the region would be much healthier with a President who challenges the region to re-evaluate whether our regional institutions are politically dynamic enough to provide enthusiasm and excitement to the region.
 
Take a look at Goldenblock -- despite serving three consecutive terms, Anumia has barely taken over the first page. You can count the threads from the past two terms on one hand. Perhaps this manifests the alleged lack of communication that has been a topic during the campaign, but more saliently, I think it represents a missed opportunity to shape the narrative.

There was a time when an active President could carry the region on his back, but that ceased to be the case a while ago. Our best Presidents don't just bust their asses; they motivate others to do likewise. And Anumia has done that, particularly through the GAP -- but I think he would've done well to push through a couple milestone achievements for symbolic purposes, then promoted the hell out of them. Aside from being good politics, this shapes the discussion -- it makes the region feel good about itself, and it makes ordinary citizens feel invested in government actions in which they themselves play no direct role.
 
I've only been active for Anumia's third of his three consecutive terms so I cannot comment on his entire Presidency but I'd agree with Skizzy that the Office of the President has been considerably quieter than it could (or maybe even should) be. I can definitely see parallels between Anumia's leadership style back in the day (circa..2011?) and his leadership style of today - there are Ministries being run by highly motivated people (Swak / Mouse) and then there are other Ministries that appear to languish. I don't know how 'in the dark' some Ministers are but I'm surprised at how little activity we've seen out of some Ministries.

Being able to hang your political hat on milestones (and promoting the hell out of those milestones) is definitely something that can propel a Presidency upwards in the 'ranks.' I think that the region may hold Anumia's term to higher standards w/r/t milestone achievements because he's had 3 terms in a row to get Europeia there, and fairly or unfairly if Europeia hands someone the reigns for the majority of a year, there should be a lot of hats for Anumia to hang at the end of those 210 days.
 
All that being said, is either of the candidates better suited to take over at this point in time? That is to say, is either one of them more or less likely to measure up where Anumia has faltered or more or less likely to struggle where he has excelled?
 
Nothing from their platforms warm me to the idea that either candidate is more likely to measure up (or even properly identify) areas where Anumia has faltered. And in terms of their ability to continue where the Anumia Administration has excelled, I think we should look at their Cabinet picks - for Drecq: daprobem as MoI standing out of as a potentially very dubious choice, and not having Elias run the EBC another obvious opportunity missed - for Kraken: explaining r3n's CoS position, SD's quietness and imminent return as GA, Drecq in this role. What little changes we see between the Cabinet of the Anumia Administration and the possible Cabinets moving forward does say a lot about what the problem areas might be for these Presidents. Additionally there's some fear that both candidates just don't have a lot of executive experience, something that Anumia after 4 terms definitely has in spades. It should be an interesting time for Europeia - though I would note that were a third surprise candidate to jump into the race (which I understand is now impossible as candidates can no longer stand), they'd have a legitimate shot at the Goldenblock.
 
I have a somewhat more optimistic view of the candidates than PhDre. While I think both candidates have faltered in their campaigns, both candidates have also been active and competent participants in our government for some time. I think Drecq and Elias are likely to excel in the more "bread and butter" aspects of regional governance, including closer contact and cooperation with our allies which is an area that was under-emphasized during the Anumia administration even though there was quite a bit of collaboration that went unnoticed. I think Kraketopia and Pope Lexus will probably excel in the area of communication. Ironically, I think a Drecq-Kraketopia ticket would have been a very strong ticket -- not to knock their current running mates, but each presidential candidate brings something to the table that would have made them a very strong team.

I do think each candidate will have some trouble right out of the gate, if elected, and it does revolve around some of their Cabinet nominees. Given the solid work of the Ministry of Interior under Mousebumples, I think the Senate is going to have a lot of questions for daproben to ensure he's ready for that task, if Drecq is elected. The Senate will likely have questions about my WA immobility if I'm nominated for Grand Admiral. If Kraketopia is elected, I think he's going to have a very difficult time getting Seven Deaths confirmed as Grand Admiral. So I expect either candidate is likely to face some political challenges fairly soon after election, and I think the degree to which this election has focused on Cabinet nominees has reaffirmed that the Europeian tradition of not revealing one's Cabinet during the campaign should make a return in the next presidential election.
 
Cormac said:
So I expect either candidate is likely to face some political challenges fairly soon after election, and I think the degree to which this election has focused on Cabinet nominees has reaffirmed that the Europeian tradition of not revealing one's Cabinet during the campaign should make a return in the next presidential election.
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I will agree it's a bit of a mystery why either candidate posted their prospective Cabinet as both have matches that will probably do more to hurt than help their respective campaigns.
 
I believe you shouldn't reveal your Cabinet picks during the campaign, but one advantage of doing so is the ability to claim a mandate for your appointments. I'll be shocked if the Senate rejects any of the winning candidate's nominees.

My view of the candidates' strengths is different from Cormac's. I like Krak's plan to keep the Communications Ministry, but that's more of an external thing than an internal thing -- there's no substitute for the President communicating directly with the citizenry, and I don't think Krak is likely to be any better or worse than Drecq at that. On the other hand, I think Krak might be slightly better than Drexq at tending to relationships with allies -- again, not to overemphasize what Drecq said about defender outreach, but such outreach isn't likely to foster closer ties with allies who are accustomed to having defenders slander them or subvert their sovereignty.
 
Neither one of these candidates seems to have offered any sort of vision in the areas of foreign affairs or the navy unless you count Drecq's comments about inviting defenders over for game night. How troubling is that to you and does it almost disqualify them in the eyes of the electorate?
 
Apparently not CSP - as long as voters respond to polls quickly, we are assuredly excited about the election. Perhaps neither candidate has offered a substantial vision in the area of Foreign Affairs, neither seems to know or care to acknowledge the faults in our Navy.. or perhaps I'm being decidedly too critical. :p

In all honesty, no it is not very surprising for Kraken to not have a new twist on FA considering the length of time he's been in Europeia - I definitely don't recall having a particularly interesting take on FA when I ran for President (I had been here approx the same amount of time as him when I ran). Drecq I am more surprised, because he has been VP twice and spent more time in the region, I would expect him out of the two to have a better grip on where Europeia is w/r/t the Navy and FA, but his comments regarding inviting defenders over for sleepovers seems a bit dated.
 
Common-Sense Politics said:
Neither one of these candidates seems to have offered any sort of vision in the areas of foreign affairs or the navy unless you count Drecq's comments about inviting defenders over for game night. How troubling is that to you and does it almost disqualify them in the eyes of the electorate?
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We've had a rough consensus on foreign policy for at least two years. Both candidates have pledged to continue the GAP, which will consume most of their efforts on the external policy front. There seems to be broad public support for such a "stay the course" agenda. The next President's success in implementing such an agenda will require more perspiration than inspiration.

So no, I'm not troubled by a lack of "vision" -- but you probably expected that answer from me, as my belief that vision is overrated is well documented. :)
 
Polls are showing Kraketopia with a bigger than slight edge with but a few days remaining. Is anybody surprised by this? How did we get here and can Drecq stage a comeback at this juncture?
 
I'd handicap this race at 50/50. Voters who participate in polls tend to be more engaged than those who do not. Less engaged voters tend to break for the more established candidate, which is Drecq (though having Lex on Krak's ticket may mitigate this effect).
 
In regard to the foreign affairs question -- and I apologize for my slow response, computer issues -- I do think the lack of vision the candidates are demonstrating in regard to external affairs in their platforms is troubling. I will say that I believe both candidates will have more vision when in office, but for whatever reason I think they're playing it closer to the vest now. This may be due to the reality that Europeia is probably going to need to engage in more non-update support operations until the Active Fleet is rebuilt, which is something no one wants to say because it's something nobody wants to hear. It could also be that they have bigger plans they can't discuss because they involve other regions.

I will say that I think both candidates will do a solid job in regard to external affairs. Any comments I make on who would do a better job with the Navy will seem biased even if they aren't, so I won't go there.

In regard to the state of the race and whether Drecq can stage a comeback, I largely agree with Skizzy. I would also note that some voters may have deliberately declined to vote in the poll, as some don't approve of pre-election polls.
 
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