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"ENN Projection - Senate By-Election"HEM
Managing Editor
ENN is ready to project that Bowzin will be the winner of the November 2019 Senate By-Election. This is based on the results of our exit poll, which collected 25 responses from respondents after they finished voting in the by-election runoff.
ENN anticipates that Bowzin's margin of victory could stretch from 11 to 22 points, with the most likely outcome according to our model below:
Most Likely Outcome:
Bowzin [IND]: 58.82%
Xecrio [IND]: 41.18%
We believe that Bowzin's best performance would see him win 62/38, while Xecrio's best performance would see them lose in a closer 44/56 race.
In the first half of our poll, our models had this race a dead heat due to Xecrio's overperformance with first-round Izzy voters. However, as more data came in it became clear that Izzy voters were going to be split 50/50 between the two candidates.
Both candidates enjoy diverse coalitions, with the average Bowzin voters joining in 2014, and the average Xecrio voter joining in 2015.
The candidates' supporters are split in whether they like the hidden results feature of this election. 60% of Bowzin's voters disapprove of the innovation, while 60% of Xecrio's voters approve. Overall, 48% of respondents approve and 52% disapprove.
While ENN is confident in our call, elections are decided by voters—not polls. If you don't like the results we've called, please vote (or even if you do, please vote)! The final results will be made public in a few hours.
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